NOVA Real Estate (the bottom has passed...) (Burke, Fairfax: sales, lenders)

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by lchoro

re: Alexandria and Arlington

They seemed to be the late toppers.

There was an recent article by a real estate broker that housing downturns historically tended to work their way from the outer suburbs in towards the city. The large drop in the price of gasoline doesn't favor the inner suburbs now.

I personally wouldn't trust a real estate broker as far as I can throw one. They are no better than a used car salesmen, but brokers make more of your money.

Also, where are you getting your "facts" from with regard to gas prices?

There's not much difference right now between the gas prices in Arlington vs. Falls Church vs. Chantilly vs. Newington vs. Manassas vs. Sterling.

Virginia Map Gas Prices - Find the Lowest Virginia Gas Prices on a Map

[Peripateticshutin]

Originally Posted by tankdude

I'm surprised there's no disclaimer at the end of each of these type of articles that they could be and most likely will be flat wrong.

Of course, hype sells more magazines.

Well, it's all tautological, really. None of us can predict anything with 100% accuracy, nor can those in the media. There could be certain price strata hit harder than others as well.

There are those with a vested interest in the prices in Arlington county not dropping (about to put a home on the market or work in the real estate industry), just as there are those sidelined buyers waiting for prices to fall. Who is which can be surmised by the vehemence of their argument.

Personally, I think the Northern Virginia (pan-suburbia) prices will eventually fall further over the next year, but I also wouldn't be completely surprised if they sustained and am very certain they'll rebound as quickly or more quickly than the national average.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by Peripateticshutin

Well, it's all tautological, really. None of us can predict anything with 100% accuracy, nor can those in the media. There could be certain price strata hit harder than others as well.

There are those with a vested interest in the prices in Arlington county not dropping (about to put a home on the market or work in the real estate industry), just as there are those sidelined buyers waiting for prices to fall. Who is which can be surmised by the vehemence of their argument.

Personally, I think the Northern Virginia (pan-suburbia) prices will eventually fall further over the next year, but I also wouldn't be completely surprised if they sustained and am very certain they'll rebound as quickly or more quickly than the national average.

Yes, prices may continue to fall further, especially since people are losing jobs now.

That begs to question why NoVA elected officials are trying to maintain the same level of tax receipts by increasing the tax rate.

In any regard, the outer burbs generally drop faster and harder, and the inner suburbs will drop, but probably not as much. Also, the inner surburbs are quicker to recover when things pick up.

[spidercharm]

Originally Posted by tankdude

Unfortunately, your example is extreme, unrealistic, and a bit absurd.

People who are looking to buy a TH in McLean for 900K don't care if there's a 150K TH in Sterling, Gainesville, or Herndon.

If buyers don't care already..they are starting to notice. My point is it is impossible to sustain unreasonable differentials between inner/outer metro regions for a long period of time. Differential will always exist. But, it will go back to the historical values.

If you haven't realized yet, deflation in house values is not something that's temporary. Housing was inflated and became unaffordable and most people realize that now. The correction (most of it anyway) will be permanent.

Regarding one other comment, let's be realistic about the "bounce"...which there will not be any. We need to get our expectations adjusted to modest 2-3% appreciation after RE bottoms (which could take years). If you want to buy home, do it for your enjoyment instead of in the false hopes of appreciation.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by spidercharm

If buyers don't care already..they are starting to notice. My point is it is impossible to sustain unreasonable differentials between inner/outer metro regions for a long period of time. Differential will always exist. But, it will go back to the historical values.

If you haven't realized yet, deflation in house values is not something that's temporary. Housing was inflated and became unaffordable and most people realize that now. The correction (most of it anyway) will be permanent.

Regarding one other comment, let's be realistic about the "bounce"...which there will not be any. We need to get our expectations adjusted to modest 2-3% appreciation after RE bottoms (which could take years). If you want to buy home, do it for your enjoyment instead of in the false hopes of appreciation.

Huh?

Before the peak of the market, a high end home in McLean always sold more than a high end home in Centreville. That "unreasonable" differential will remain and continue to remain regardless.

Housing became unaffordable because those that bought in PW County bought with no money down, no verified income, and should never have been approved the loan to buy to begin with. There's much less foreclosures closer to the beltway compared to the outer burbs.

BTW, you don't just buy a home for "enjoyment." Buying a home is #1, a financial investment. It'll be the most expensive thing that anyone will ever buy in their lifetime. It's dual purpose enjoyment and investment.

[spidercharm]

Originally Posted by tankdude

Huh?

Before the peak of the market, a high end home in McLean always sold more than a high end home in Centreville. That "unreasonable" differential will remain and continue to remain regardless.

Housing became unaffordable because those that bought in PW County bought with no money down, no verified income, and should never have been approved the loan to buy to begin with. There's much less foreclosures closer to the beltway compared to the outer burbs.

BTW, you don't just buy a home for "enjoyment." Buying a home is #1, a financial investment. It'll be the most expensive thing that anyone will ever buy in their lifetime. It's dual purpose enjoyment and investment.

I never said the differential will not remain. I count the "before-peak" period in McLean a key period for NoVA housing bubble and the main reason for the increase in outside burb prices that people were forced to pay who couldn't afford.

Foreclosures are just beginning in many NoVA regions as economy is starting to go south.

You absolutely buy home for enjoying it in a great neighbourhood. It is critical to buy it at the correct price however, because you don't want to overpay for once in a lifetime mega-purchase. But, what we all consumers are paying for is exactly the mindset of treating our home as a bank or as an investment. Historically, RE is not supposed to appreciate beyond the inflation rate and it's not a great vehicle for investment.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by spidercharm

I never said the differential will not remain. I count the "before-peak" period in McLean a key period for NoVA housing bubble and the main reason for the increase in outside burb prices that people were forced to pay who couldn't afford.

Foreclosures are just beginning in many NoVA regions as economy is starting to go south.

You absolutely buy home for enjoying it in a great neighbourhood. It is critical to buy it at the correct price however, because you don't want to overpay for once in a lifetime mega-purchase. But, what we all consumers are paying for is exactly the mindset of treating our home as a bank or as an investment. Historically, RE is not supposed to appreciate beyond the inflation rate and it's not a great vehicle for investment.

You make a lot of general and obvious statements.

If you're just buying a home to enjoy, then you yourself are better off renting and putting your dollars into the great investment vehicle called stocks.

Good luck.

[Skapov]

Originally Posted by ck90211

With banks going back to tighter lending standards (actually verifying income and job stability), the bottom will only be reached when housing prices are in line with income levels, and people can once again sustain their home purchase with their real earnings.

Yes, the pendulum has swung in the other direction, and it's amazing just how much financial information my husband & I have had to provide to get financing. We have now spent hours and hours pulling records and documenting income, and the lender is even planning to call my husband's employer and discuss his job security. It's quite invasion and stringent, but necessary I understand.

[Skapov]

Originally Posted by barryhussein

more like a layer of government blubber.

Yeah, but why not live high on the hog and ride the gravy train out? My husband & I had originally planned to return to the Midwest, but WE WERE SCARED with all this talk of high unemployment and a deepening recession. I like the fact that DC Metro area is insulated for the most part, and I love the OBAMA plan for massive additional government spending. Bring on the government blubber!

[lchoro]

The higher price of gas last year cancelled out the usual tradeoff of longer commutes for less expensive homes. Now that the price of gas has dropped precipitiously, the city and the close-in suburbs no longer enjoy the advantage of cheaper commutes. It was not uncommon last summer for households to spend as much as 400-600 dollars a month more per car to commute.