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Also, let's face it. The ultra-rich communities will not be taking these folks. No this will mostly be pushed on middle-class areas. Are they talking about doing this in Kenilworth?
As a matter of fact, yes. Kenilworth was one of a handful of communities that actually took the affordable housing plan mandate by the state seriously, and have created a plan to increase affordable housing in the city, by either providing 15% affordable housing in each new development or by increasing the total affordable housing units by 3 percentage points(of the total). Unfortunately I can't find the actual document of the plan to share here.
As a matter of fact, yes. Kenilworth was one of a handful of communities that actually took the affordable housing plan mandate by the state seriously, and have created a plan to increase affordable housing in the city, by either providing 15% affordable housing in each new development or by increasing the total affordable housing units by 3 percentage points(of the total). Unfortunately I can't find the actual document of the plan to share here.
So no comment as to what happened in Lansing and Zion?
With regard to Kenilworth, was any affordable housing development actually built there after they made the plan?
The below says they adopted a plan in 2005 but it appears that they have a whopping total of 4 affordable housing units (whatever that means there) and the number of rentals was flat between 2000 and 2011. So much for taking that mandate seriously.
Putting something on paper to follow a law to have a plan is one thing. Executing it is another. Buy hey maybe I am wrong and affordable housing will be coming to every affluent community in USA over the near term and the taxpayer will be paying even more for it.
I vote yes to the train, no to the subsidized housing.
So no comment as to what happened in Lansing and Zion?
JVR, let me first say that I'm not here to prove a point or prove some one wrong, just trying to hold a discussion, as while I may have some convictions, I recognize that these are very complicated issues and no one person may ever be definitely right or wrong.
I didn't address either of those cities, because I know nothing of Zion, and I haven't seen anything of Lansing aside from the way it is now. What is your experience of what happened in Lansing?
If I look at the data presented here on CD, from 2000 to 2010, the median house value in Lansing increased from $115,000 to $137,600, the median household income increased from $47,554 to $50,367 and the population increased slightly from 28,332 to 28,522. There was a definite decrease in the value of home sales between 2009 and 2012, but that was also happening across the country. Unemployment is also on it's way down. Crime rates on the other hand seems to be all over the place from year to year, dropping and rising, while the general trends in Indiana are of dropping crime.
JVR, let me first say that I'm not here to prove a point or prove some one wrong, just trying to hold a discussion, as while I may have some convictions, I recognize that these are very complicated issues and no one person may ever be definitely right or wrong.
I didn't address either of those cities, because I know nothing of Zion, and I haven't seen anything of Lansing aside from the way it is now. What is your experience of what happened in Lansing?
If I look at the data presented here on CD, from 2000 to 2010, the median house value in Lansing increased from $115,000 to $137,600, the median household income increased from $47,554 to $50,367 and the population increased slightly from 28,332 to 28,522. There was a definite decrease in the value of home sales between 2009 and 2012, but that was also happening across the country. Unemployment is also on it's way down. Crime rates on the other hand seems to be all over the place from year to year, dropping and rising, while the general trends in Indiana are of dropping crime.
My conclusions are based on data. Look at test scores in the high school (TF South). The trend is obvious and not good. Specifically look at Performance tab, PSAE trends. Next look at Trends Tab, Achievement Gap. See the gap and look at the # of students low income vs. non low income tested. The low income # is certainly growing.
My company did an analysis of Lansing mid-2016. The income growth has been lower than average in Chicago 0.91% vs. 1.42% from 2000 to 2015 (ESRI data). The unemployment level spread has been higher since the great recession (meaning it is higher over the nation that it has historically been). And home values are still 30% below peak (Zillow data). In contrast healthy areas of Chicago have already recovered and reached prior peak levels.
Crime, well, the people I know that have lived there for a long time say it is up and generally the trend appears to be up per the city-data info even though it does bounce around a bit. Regardless the crime rate is high and I do not believe it was like that 30 years ago. At least that is the commentary I have from people living there for that long. Several people have told me they would like to leave but the value they can get for their home now will not buy them much in a better area so the stay or some have ended up renting their homes (perhaps to folks with vouchers).
Maybe someone else with familiarity to Lansing can comments. The overall point being you really have to take the introduction of low-income seriously. You can't just assume it will be all roses because it sounds innocuous or b/c fancy towns like Kenilworth have a plan on paper to do it. In the end, we can agree to disagree on this.
My conclusions are based on data. Look at test scores in the high school (TF South). The trend is obvious and not good. Specifically look at Performance tab, PSAE trends. Next look at Trends Tab, Achievement Gap. See the gap and look at the # of students low income vs. non low income tested. The low income # is certainly growing.
My company did an analysis of Lansing mid-2016. The income growth has been lower than average in Chicago 0.91% vs. 1.42% from 2000 to 2015 (ESRI data). The unemployment level spread has been higher since the great recession (meaning it is higher over the nation that it has historically been). And home values are still 30% below peak (Zillow data). In contrast healthy areas of Chicago have already recovered and reached prior peak levels.
Crime, well, the people I know that have lived there for a long time say it is up and generally the trend appears to be up per the city-data info even though it does bounce around a bit. Regardless the crime rate is high and I do not believe it was like that 30 years ago. At least that is the commentary I have from people living there for that long. Several people have told me they would like to leave but the value they can get for their home now will not buy them much in a better area so the stay or some have ended up renting their homes (perhaps to folks with vouchers).
Maybe someone else with familiarity to Lansing can comments. The overall point being you really have to take the introduction of low-income seriously. You can't just assume it will be all roses because it sounds innocuous or b/c fancy towns like Kenilworth have a plan on paper to do it. In the end, we can agree to disagree on this.
The issues with low-income residents moving into the south suburbs (Lansing, Dolton, South Holland, Harvey, Calumet City, Country Club Hills etc.) was exacerbated when the relocation of CHA residents as well as rents increasing in many city neighborhoods forcing low-income NON-CHA/NON-voucher residents to move. The south suburbs have always been the most inexpensive suburban area of Chicagoland. In early years, it was more uniformly blue collar and working class with the exception of Homewood, Flossmoor, and Olympia Fields that were more middle class to upper-middle class. As far as Lansing, they already had a higher amount of multi-family housing than some other suburban areas which makes it easier for lower income residents to move into especially when the area was not to expensive to begin with. However, with that being said, flight from places like South Holland, Dolton, and Country Club Hills began when middle class/professional Blacks from city neighborhoods whom made more (on average) than their new White neighbors moved in. There wasn't just a fear of "low-income" but also a fear with just having new Black residents in general, no matter their income level, level of education, or having a clean criminal and cps record. As we all know, a lot of times, perceptions can become reality and when flight occurred and prices did not increase as much as they would have otherwise, lower income residents moved into these areas in higher numbers. Ironically, while flight occurred from Lansing, it was also the recipient of flight from White residents of places like Dolton and Harvey whom mostly moved to south Lansing (like south of 186th). The other thing is that with Lansing, a lot of residents did not move but they did pull their children out of the public schools. Overall, Lansing is still a relatively safe area. Not the safest in some parts, but not nearly as bad as Harvey, Dixmoor, Riverdale, and much of Dolton or Calumet City. The number is low-income households have increased but middle-class and blue collar still far outnumbers low-income residents in Lansing. Lansing also still has a somewhat close-knit community, although as older residents die off, this is slowly going away. Also, you brought up a good point. In many of these suburbs, most of the low-income families with vouchers live in privately owned residents, not as much in apartment developments. In northwest Indiana, many apartment complexes do not rent to Section 8. Even in Hammond, it is difficult to find complexes that accept Section 8 despite what folks say. However, it is much easier to find private owners that will accept it. In Munster, none of the apartment complexes accept Section 8. Section 8 residents either live in single-family homes and blend in with everyone else, or in condos (in which the Condo association would have to approve). In the field I work in, I deal with this a lot. I will say that Merrillville is the one area of NWI (outside of Gary) that has a disproportionately high amount of Section 8 residents as well as apartments that accept section 8. Equity Property Management accepts section 8 and most of their properties are clustered around the Broadway Corridor. People need to understand that while there are some increases in the utilization of services when low-income populations increase, a lot of the issues can also be blamed on folks with good middle-class salaries but negative lower-class values.
I can't comment on Lansing in general, but I lived in Riverdale and then South Holland 34 years ago. At that time, those towns were predominantly white and were very nice towns with good schools. My grandmother lived in South Holland till about 20 years ago. That was when it really started to change IMO. The communities had residents who had lived there raising their families their whole life, 40, 50, 60 years. They were getting much older and a lot were moving to warmer climates, going to nursing homes or dying. At that time, they sold their homes VERY cheap and the racial mix really started to change. More and more minorities were moving there from the inner city. Property values plummeted and school ratings dropped as well. White flight started to happen rapidly. Towns that were once predominantly white were now becoming predominantly black. Riverdale, Dolton, South Holland, Country Club Hills and now Homewood and Lansing. Schools that were once top notch are now not, Thornridge, Thornwood, HF. Since these communities are so close to the Indiana border, white flight was happening and these families were moving to NW Indiana for lower COL, better neighborhoods and schools.
However, as I stated earlier we moved from the SW suburbs of Illinois to St. John and most of my current neighbors are from the more affluent areas of Illinois versus the S.E. Southern suburbs of Illinois. With that said, we also have a few "white flight" neighbors that came from Lansing and Homewood and they have made it real clear why they moved out of those towns!
I can't comment on Lansing in general, but I lived in Riverdale and then South Holland 34 years ago. At that time, those towns were predominantly white and were very nice towns with good schools. My grandmother lived in South Holland till about 20 years ago. That was when it really started to change IMO. The communities had residents who had lived there raising their families their whole life, 40, 50, 60 years. They were getting much older and a lot were moving to warmer climates, going to nursing homes or dying. At that time, they sold their homes VERY cheap and the racial mix really started to change. More and more minorities were moving there from the inner city. Property values plummeted and school ratings dropped as well. White flight started to happen rapidly. Towns that were once predominantly white were now becoming predominantly black. Riverdale, Dolton, South Holland, Country Club Hills and now Homewood and Lansing. Schools that were once top notch are now not, Thornridge, Thornwood, HF. Since these communities are so close to the Indiana border, white flight was happening and these families were moving to NW Indiana for lower COL, better neighborhoods and schools.
However, as I stated earlier we moved from the SW suburbs of Illinois to St. John and most of my current neighbors are from the more affluent areas of Illinois versus the S.E. Southern suburbs of Illinois. With that said, we also have a few "white flight" neighbors that came from Lansing and Homewood and they have made it real clear why they moved out of those towns!
In the south suburbs, the only school district that I had ever heard to be referred to as "top-notch" was Homewood-Flossmoor primarily because it used to be closer in the league of schools on the North Shore and Hinsdale & Oak Brook and had a lot of educated residents such as many professors and doctors that worked in the University of Chicago area or UIC. The schools in places like South Holland, Dolton, and Lansing were rated well, but never "top-notch" except maybe compared to CPS. Districts like the schools in Orland or Lincoln-Way were always rated much higher (and of course now, blow them out of the water). South Holland actually had a relatively high percentage of middle and upper middle class Black residents before a lot of the flight took place. Dolton on the other hand did not see as much higher income Black residents moving in. Homewood, Flossmoor, and even Lansing while having experienced White flight have not experienced it to the level that places like Country Club Hills and Dolton have. Also, with Country Club Hills and Matteson, those two areas had a lot of room to grow so when flight happened, not only were many of those residents replaced, but a large Black middle class boomed in those areas. Matteson is still seeing a lot of home construction as well.
Overall, in my opinion, the fears of negative demographic change due to the train extension is overreaction. Also, again, if I wanted to move somewhere where I was absolutely SURE that I would significantly reduce the chances of having any or a significant amount of Black neighbors, I would be in the west, northwest, or north shore suburbs. Black population growth is highest in NWI next to the south suburbs. The patterns of flight just doesn't make sense unless folks plan on moving every 10 years or so. People honestly thought that Merrillville would stay lily white and then when it didnt, they moved ONE municipality south to Crown Point and some folks were expecting the same thing. Literally makes no sense.
I live in the city now, but if this train line extension were built, Munster and Dyer would shoot to the top of my list when it comes to relocating to the suburbs in my mid 30's. Getting downtown for work is a top priority and a train must be able to consistently get to the loop in 45 minutes for a viable commute. If this line were built, you would see a mad dash of white collar workers flee suburbs like Orland Park, Tinley Park, Frankfort, Mokena, Homer Glen, New Lenox, Lockport, Lemont, and Plainfield to jump at the lower property taxes and housing costs.
The issues with low-income residents moving into the south suburbs (Lansing, Dolton, South Holland, Harvey, Calumet City, Country Club Hills etc.) was exacerbated when the relocation of CHA residents as well as rents increasing in many city neighborhoods forcing low-income NON-CHA/NON-voucher residents to move. The south suburbs have always been the most inexpensive suburban area of Chicagoland. In early years, it was more uniformly blue collar and working class with the exception of Homewood, Flossmoor, and Olympia Fields that were more middle class to upper-middle class. As far as Lansing, they already had a higher amount of multi-family housing than some other suburban areas which makes it easier for lower income residents to move into especially when the area was not to expensive to begin with. However, with that being said, flight from places like South Holland, Dolton, and Country Club Hills began when middle class/professional Blacks from city neighborhoods whom made more (on average) than their new White neighbors moved in. There wasn't just a fear of "low-income" but also a fear with just having new Black residents in general, no matter their income level, level of education, or having a clean criminal and cps record. As we all know, a lot of times, perceptions can become reality and when flight occurred and prices did not increase as much as they would have otherwise, lower income residents moved into these areas in higher numbers. Ironically, while flight occurred from Lansing, it was also the recipient of flight from White residents of places like Dolton and Harvey whom mostly moved to south Lansing (like south of 186th). The other thing is that with Lansing, a lot of residents did not move but they did pull their children out of the public schools. Overall, Lansing is still a relatively safe area. Not the safest in some parts, but not nearly as bad as Harvey, Dixmoor, Riverdale, and much of Dolton or Calumet City. The number is low-income households have increased but middle-class and blue collar still far outnumbers low-income residents in Lansing. Lansing also still has a somewhat close-knit community, although as older residents die off, this is slowly going away. Also, you brought up a good point. In many of these suburbs, most of the low-income families with vouchers live in privately owned residents, not as much in apartment developments. In northwest Indiana, many apartment complexes do not rent to Section 8. Even in Hammond, it is difficult to find complexes that accept Section 8 despite what folks say. However, it is much easier to find private owners that will accept it. In Munster, none of the apartment complexes accept Section 8. Section 8 residents either live in single-family homes and blend in with everyone else, or in condos (in which the Condo association would have to approve). In the field I work in, I deal with this a lot. I will say that Merrillville is the one area of NWI (outside of Gary) that has a disproportionately high amount of Section 8 residents as well as apartments that accept section 8. Equity Property Management accepts section 8 and most of their properties are clustered around the Broadway Corridor. People need to understand that while there are some increases in the utilization of services when low-income populations increase, a lot of the issues can also be blamed on folks with good middle-class salaries but negative lower-class values.
And the problem is, it is hard to change "lower-class values". While these decisions may not be rational, in many cases they have occurred in the past and like I said, the more people I meet in NWI I see "values" which have resulted in rapid economic changes in certain south suburbs of Chicago. As such, I worry about the introduction of affordable housing around the train stations. I agree with you, migration habits of these folks sometimes "Literally Make No Sense." The train extension in itself will not result in a major shift (in fact I think it will help Munster), however, if RDA is dead-set on putting in more affordable housing/rentals around the train station there is risk for repeating patterns which have historically been displayed. Whether these patterns are rational or ethical, they are patterns which should not be ignored when contemplating development around the train stations. I think Munster will likely squash this by just keeping density to a minimum via zoning.
I live in the city now, but if this train line extension were built, Munster and Dyer would shoot to the top of my list when it comes to relocating to the suburbs in my mid 30's. Getting downtown for work is a top priority and a train must be able to consistently get to the loop in 45 minutes for a viable commute. If this line were built, you would see a mad dash of white collar workers flee suburbs like Orland Park, Tinley Park, Frankfort, Mokena, Homer Glen, New Lenox, Lockport, Lemont, and Plainfield to jump at the lower property taxes and housing costs.
This... all day.
Many opponents to the train extension use justifications for their arguments based on current ridership, current this, current that. The unknown bombshell is the additional ridership such as those described in the post above. This is nearly unquantifiable. That makes it somewhat of a gray area for sure, and there isn't exact certainty on the specific number of riders, but that's what makes this an investment... there is risk involved. Unless you contact everyone who lives in the towns listed above (and others not listed) as well as professionals living in the city and working downtown who desire to someday move to the suburbs, then lay out to them the incremental lifestyle benefit of moving from IL to NWI post-train implementation, and get their well thought out response... we'll never really know for sure. The best schools in NWI are just as good if not better than the schools in the towns listed above, crime is comparable, etc. The only real differences at this point here after the train is put in would be... taxes and cost of living. I suppose you can make a case that "upscale shopping" still is an advantage for the IL side with the Orland mall, but if that's really the force that keeps you on that side of the border... I suppose to each his own. For comparable lifestyles, paying more in IL suburbs will be harder and harder to justify.
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