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I've heard many times, and I believe it, that about 50% of newcomers go back within two years. At least half the people I've met in the last 12 years have moved away. There are also some who move here, then leave then return over and over. I met one woman who had lived here 8 different times over 10 years.
I have a friend like that. She moved here when she was 17 and now at 24 she has lived here on 5 separate occasions.
On a side note, you must remember that a large population of the 20's to 30's crowd is either college students or military. Both of these almost always leave the island after about 4 years. Making friends is pretty easy here, but can be more difficult when looking for a friend that is here long-term. Like someone else before me said, a lot of people here just don't want to invest the energy in becoming great friends with someone just to have them leave.
It would be really interesting to investigate this topic of how long people stay and why they go back. I wonder if anybody collects this kind of data.
I think Koakine is being a too harsh to call it a failure rate. For some people, it can be seen as a failure to get established, to fit in, to get a job that pays enough, to not need family so close. But for others, moving around is just a way of life, whether they admit it or not. And Hawaii being what it is (a tropical destination in the US), there is a lot of just trying it out, adventuring while still young, going for two years to have fun.
Case in point: I know a couple that moved here together, one worked for the National Wildlife Service, so a steady job that paid enough to make it. They had a kid here (I always think Hawai'i is a great place to have babies and infants--no cold to bundle up against, plus lots of parks and beaches to play at), but after a few years, they went back to the mainland. But they didn't go back to their hometowns or their families, they went far away to the east coast on a Park Service job transfer. I but they could've stayed if they wanted, and they could've looked for a Park Service job near their families, but they continued on their adventure that their job and personalities afforded them.
I know it's a bummer when people just cycle through, but it is what it is and you've got to make the best of it. And yes, there are some non-compatible people and just hangers-on, but like anybody, you pick and choose and hang out with the ones you get along with. I suppose it's easier for other transplants to relate and integrate the new arrivals. Long term residents and kama'aina have their social network already established, with long friendships and family, and don't want to "upset" it with people coming and going.
But I totally agree with fromNV, I give them all a chance and don't see it as a bad thing when they move away. Chances are we stay in touch, if only with a Christmas card, and it's always neat to have met new people and know somebody if you ever go to visit there. Plus, we often meet other people through them, and our circle of friends and acquaintances expands. And there's always the chance that establishing connections helps them to stay.
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