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As I've mentioned before - if you own your house or condo, get ready for even more of a windfall. If you rent - I predict 10% year over year increases the next couple of years.
"Oahu issued about 7,000 housing permits a year in the 1960s and about 6,500 a year in the '70s. During the past three years the island has issued only about 1,600 permits a year.
Developments such as the 5,000 planned condominiums in Honolulu's Kakaako neighborhood are a start. But because towers take years to complete, Oahu's housing deficit will endure in the near future."
As I've mentioned before - if you own your house or condo, get ready for even more of a windfall. If you rent - I predict 10% year over year increases the next couple of years.
"Oahu issued about 7,000 housing permits a year in the 1960s and about 6,500 a year in the '70s. During the past three years the island has issued only about 1,600 permits a year.
Developments such as the 5,000 planned condominiums in Honolulu's Kakaako neighborhood are a start. But because towers take years to complete, Oahu's housing deficit will endure in the near future."
What data supports a 21% increase in rents over two years? I do believe rents will increase considerably as well but not to the extent that you believe they will. I'm just curious as to how you came to that conclusion.
They are going to run out of Land to build eventually. Then they'll have to build up and build Condo towers like in Kakaako.
In turn it won't be the people that need the housing, the medium price types, sadly, jmho.
What data supports a 21% increase in rents over two years? I do believe rents will increase considerably as well but not to the extent that you believe they will. I'm just curious as to how you came to that conclusion.
Average increase since I've been keeping track the least 30+ years has been 6-7% so with the economy improving 21% might be low.
Average increase since I've been keeping track the least 30+ years has been 6-7% so with the economy improving 21% might be low.
LOL. Either you're not local or your math is reaaallly bad. I've been renting property on Oahu for over 15 years. It's true that rents don't ever go down here but they can stay flat for years. If I took my average rent 15 years ago and compared it to today, it would translate into a ~3% annual increase in rents. We're definitely due for a substantial bump over the next couple years to stay in the ~3% annual increase average but that's only because rents have been virtually flat between 2007 and 2012. 6-7% is very far off base as a long-term indicator.
They started overbuilding the water table way back in the '70's or so. Before 9-11 they'd let folks go down into the water tunnels and look at the aquifer. Real spooky, actually, especially on the Kaneohe side with a huge steel door that had water leaking out of the edges that had the aquifer behind it. I have no idea how (or even why) they installed that door. Anyway, there were markers that showed the different water levels for each year. Up until about 1965 - 1970 the markers would go up or down but were pretty steady. Then in the seventies it started dropping. By the eighties you could barely see the markers anymore. Now that they don't let folks in to see the aquifers anymore, I have no idea where it is, but I'm sure it's not recovered.
This also goes to illustrate that when you live on islands after awhile you have to be pretty creative about new and different things to do.
Also, in the early eighties or so, you could go apply for a building permit and the fee to attach to the water system was a mere $45 or so. Mostly for paperwork processing and installing a meter, I think. These were also dollars that were worth more than they are now. By the mid-eighties it had gone up to several hundred. By the nineties it had gotten into the thousands, especially if it was commercial zoned, that would have chewed up tens of thousands. I have no idea what it is now, I've not drawn any plans for Oahu lately.
So, the water folks have known for decades about overbuilding the water table, but what can they do? Can the City & County of Honolulu put a moratorium on population because of lack of water? Folks selling houses would howl. Would folks have to apply for a permit to have a child? Would they limit the amount of incoming tourists? It's probably easier to ignore the whole thing and lower the water table until the water lens breaks and no more fresh water aquifer on Oahu. There's also "saltwater incursion" which happens when the freshwater pressure is less. There's lots of interesting hydrology on islands.
They started overbuilding the water table way back in the '70's or so. Before 9-11 they'd let folks go down into the water tunnels and look at the aquifer. Real spooky, actually, especially on the Kaneohe side with a huge steel door that had water leaking out of the edges that had the aquifer behind it. I have no idea how (or even why) they installed that door. Anyway, there were markers that showed the different water levels for each year. Up until about 1965 - 1970 the markers would go up or down but were pretty steady. Then in the seventies it started dropping. By the eighties you could barely see the markers anymore. Now that they don't let folks in to see the aquifers anymore, I have no idea where it is, but I'm sure it's not recovered.
This also goes to illustrate that when you live on islands after awhile you have to be pretty creative about new and different things to do.
Also, in the early eighties or so, you could go apply for a building permit and the fee to attach to the water system was a mere $45 or so. Mostly for paperwork processing and installing a meter, I think. These were also dollars that were worth more than they are now. By the mid-eighties it had gone up to several hundred. By the nineties it had gotten into the thousands, especially if it was commercial zoned, that would have chewed up tens of thousands. I have no idea what it is now, I've not drawn any plans for Oahu lately.
So, the water folks have known for decades about overbuilding the water table, but what can they do? Can the City & County of Honolulu put a moratorium on population because of lack of water? Folks selling houses would howl. Would folks have to apply for a permit to have a child? Would they limit the amount of incoming tourists? It's probably easier to ignore the whole thing and lower the water table until the water lens breaks and no more fresh water aquifer on Oahu. There's also "saltwater incursion" which happens when the freshwater pressure is less. There's lots of interesting hydrology on islands.
You don't think in the near-distant future advances in technology will allow a percentage of fresh water to be provided by newfangled desalinization tech?
LOL. Either you're not local or your math is reaaallly bad. I've been renting property on Oahu for over 15 years. It's true that rents don't ever go down here but they can stay flat for years. If I took my average rent 15 years ago and compared it to today, it would translate into a ~3% annual increase in rents. We're definitely due for a substantial bump over the next couple years to stay in the ~3% annual increase average but that's only because rents have been virtually flat between 2007 and 2012. 6-7% is very far off base as a long-term indicator.
Nope, it's factual OVER 30+ years not 15. What was your rent 15 years ago and what is it today?
What data supports a 21% increase in rents over two years? I do believe rents will increase considerably as well but not to the extent that you believe they will. I'm just curious as to how you came to that conclusion.
Well - I don't have a snapshot of craigslist from 2008 to today. But I do own 3 rental properties on Oahu, from Hawaii Kai to St. Louis Heights, to Kakaako - and the rent is going up a lot. Certainly over 10% a year the last couple of years.
There is another thread talking about the Moana Pacific - a couple of years ago you could definitely get in for under $3,000/month, more like $2,600 - today, $3,000 is low end - and tops at $4,000.
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