Cincinnati MSA to surpass Cleveland MSA in population this year (Columbus: versus, estimated)

[OHBuckeye]

The Enquirer - Cincinnati region gains on Cleveland

The Cincinnati region's population has grown 4.7 percent since 2000 - and is on pace to surpass the Cleveland Metropolitan area in population sometime this year, according to census estimates released Wednesday.

The population of the Cincinnati-Middletown Metropolitan Statistical Area now exceeds 2.1 million people.

The Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor area has lost 1.5 percent of its population since 2000 - and had an estimated 9,937 more people than Cincinnati as of mid-2006.

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/cb07-51tbl2.pdf (broken link)

[JoeP]

I really think that is misleading though. Akron is very close to Cleveland and the combine area really reflects the true metro area.

[Pathwalker]

^Sometimes Akron is included, and other times it comprises its own MSA. If you were to include Dayton in Cincinnati's metro area, I think it would still rival, if not surpass, Cleveland's metro area with Akron included.

That being said, I think the true test of whether a particular metro area has more people than another one should be determined by taking equal amounts of square mileage and comparing them. If you were to take a certain sized area of the Cleveland metro area, and superimpose it over an equally sized area of Cincinnati's - and then compare how many people are inside those areas - which one would have more people? Does anyone know the total square mileage of each metro area?

For instance, the Columbus MSA is HUGE compared to other MSA's in Ohio, and its MSA population is somewhere nearing 2 million. However, if you shrunk the Columbus MSA to the size of Cincinnati's, it's population wouldn't be nearly as much.

[C-Dawg]

If you were to take a certain sized area of the Cleveland metro area, and superimpose it over an equally sized area of Cincinnati's - and then compare how many people are inside those areas - which one would have more people? Does anyone know the total square mileage of each metro area?

Cleveland would have twice the population within the core 200 square miles. Cleveland's inner ring suburbs actually have a higher population density than the central city. All of this is more dense than anything in Cincinnati.

For instance, the Columbus MSA is HUGE compared to other MSA's in Ohio, and its MSA population is somewhere nearing 2 million. However, if you shrunk the Columbus MSA to the size of Cincinnati's, it's population wouldn't be nearly as much.

Cincinnati's MSA is every bit as large as Bustown's. Cincinnati MSA is fifteen counties! It's actually the most sprawled out metro in Ohio. It's a growing MSA, but Hamilton County (nearly half the population) is the fastest-shrinking urban county in Ohio. Growth has been far away from the city and overwhelmingly sprawly.

Columbus is of course sprawly too.

[C-Dawg]

^Sometimes Akron is included, and other times it comprises its own MSA. If you were to include Dayton in Cincinnati's metro area, I think it would still rival, if not surpass, Cleveland's metro area with Akron included.

Akron is 29 miles from downtown Cleveland. Dayton is 47 miles from downtown Cincinnati, so the comparison is not so fair.

Of course, given the intense sprawl of Cincinnati and Dayton, they're arguably more connected by development than Cleveland and Akron. Though based on market size (the true measure of a city's influence), Cleveland is much larger than Cincinnati or Columbus. Akron is included in Cleveland's market.

Dayton is an independent market. The Dayton-Cincinnati relationship (47 miles between them) is more similar to the Toledo-Detroit relationship (55 miles between them). The smaller cities have remained mostly independent markets and will contine to do so for quite some time.

[C-Dawg]

^Sometimes Akron is included, and other times it comprises its own MSA. If you were to include Dayton in Cincinnati's metro area, I think it would still rival, if not surpass, Cleveland's metro area with Akron included.

Akron is 29 miles from downtown Cleveland. Dayton is 47 miles from downtown Cincinnati, so the comparison is not so fair.

Of course, given the intense sprawl of Cincinnati and Dayton, they're arguably more connected by development than Cleveland and Akron. Though based on market size (the true measure of a city's influence), Cleveland is larger than Cincinnati or Columbus. Akron is included in Cleveland's market. One day, the Three C's will all be about the same size in MSA, but that's not even half of the picture. Urbanized area, DMA, and consumer market paint a far more accurate picture of size.

Dayton is an independent market. The Dayton-Cincinnati relationship (47 miles between them) is more similar to the Toledo-Detroit relationship (55 miles between them). The smaller cities have remained independent markets and will contine to do so for quite some time. Akron needs Cleveland. Dayton doesn't need Cincinnati.

[Pathwalker]

Cincinnati's MSA is every bit as large as Bustown's. Cincinnati MSA is fifteen counties! It's actually the most sprawled out metro in Ohio. It's a growing MSA, but Hamilton County (nearly half the population) is the fastest-shrinking urban county in Ohio. Growth has been far away from the city and overwhelmingly sprawly.

^You're right. I was looking at the map wrong.

[OHBuckeye]

Originally Posted by Pilliod Njaim

[i]It's a growing MSA, but Hamilton County (nearly half the population) is the fastest-shrinking urban county in Ohio.

According to Census Bureau estimates, Cleveland's Cuyahoga County is shrinking faster than Cincinnati's Hamilton County. The population of Cuyahoga County decreased 5.7% from 4/1/2000 to 7/1/2006, whereas the population of Hamilton County decreased 2.7% over the same period.

Cuyahoga County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau

Hamilton County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau

As for Akron being 29 miles from downtown Cleveland and Dayton being 47 miles from downtown Cincinnati, are you saying that those are the distances to the city limits or to the downtowns of Akron and Dayton? Also, are they driving distances or 'as the crow flies' distances? According to my Rand McNally road atlas, the driving distances are 39 miles from downtown Cleveland to downtown Akron and 52 miles from downtown Cincinnati to downtown Dayton -- not such a big difference.

[JoeP]

Cleveland and Akron inhabit bordering counties. If there were no Akron, its county would still most definitely be in the Cleveland metro. In fact, if there were no Akron I bet that there would be no doubts that it would be in the Cleveland metro.

There is a gap between Cincy and Dayton.

Downtown - downtown doesn't matter on a metro level, it's density and where people are.

Cleveland is spilling into Akron.

[MABCle]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Cleveland and Akron inhabit bordering counties. If there were no Akron, its county would still most definitely be in the Cleveland metro. In fact, if there were no Akron I bet that there would be no doubts that it would be in the Cleveland metro.

There is a gap between Cincy and Dayton.

Downtown - downtown doesn't matter on a metro level, it's density and where people are.

Cleveland is spilling into Akron.

Definitely, which explains why it is so ridiculous that Portage and Summit are not in the Cleveland Metro. Sure Akron is responsible for some of the growth occuring there, but lets be serious. Cleveland and Akron are already a Combined Statistical area with 2,931,000, versus CIncy's CSA of 2,114,000. The market area of Cleveland has 4.5 Million versus CIncy's 2.5 million.