Feeling like 2006... (Orange, Corona, Newport Beach: how much, buying a home, transfer)
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Anyone else fee like it's 2006 all over again. Buyers seem to be bidding up houses like crazy today. Some houses don't even make it to the first open house before it goes into pending. I'm thinking of waiting out this madness. What's everyone's take on this? I am currently looking and have the 20% down and preapproved for 650k but what I'm seeing out there feels like this can't continue for too much longer. One of my coworkers is closing this Friday on a 690k house with only 5% down. WTF!
No, you need to buy NOW! This is the BEST time to buy. Better act today or you'll get priced out FOREVER!
Watching things over here in Denver. While it seems like prices will keep going up for the next few years, inventory seems to be increasing.
I've also been watching the other global housing markets, and many of them are finally starting to level out. I'm not planning on buying in California, but since you guys are a major driver for our housing market, I'm interested to see what will happen.
Anyone else fee like it's 2006 all over again. Buyers seem to be bidding up houses like crazy today. Some houses don't even make it to the first open house before it goes into pending. I'm thinking of waiting out this madness. What's everyone's take on this? I am currently looking and have the 20% down and preapproved for 650k but what I'm seeing out there feels like this can't continue for too much longer. One of my coworkers is closing this Friday on a 690k house with only 5% down. WTF!
That's interesting, because in Newport Beach the market is actually pretty slow. Prices are certainly very high, but I have monitored the market for the last year and single family homes in Newport under 2m are staying on the market for a long time and usually going for well under asking. I would say that I see 10 price decreases for every price increase, and like I said I'm monitoring it daily. Every once in a while a place will go quickly, but that is pretty rare. I'm not going to comment on the market for the rest of Orange County, I only follow Newport Beach, Corona Del Mar and the Newport Coast, and I only look at single family homes for under 2m, but the stuff I look at is sitting on the market and people are not getting asking prices. Silicon Valley is where things are really hot, places there are getting bid up like crazy, and nothing good is sitting on the market. Prices there are also higher than they are in Newport. Zillow rates Newport as cold, a buyer's market. It estimates prices will remain flat for the next year.
But I know exactly what you mean, the market seems to be very inflated. I certainly would not feel pressured to get in right now, I suspect there will be a correction, but who really knows.
Anyone else fee like it's 2006 all over again. Buyers seem to be bidding up houses like crazy today. Some houses don't even make it to the first open house before it goes into pending. I'm thinking of waiting out this madness. What's everyone's take on this? I am currently looking and have the 20% down and preapproved for 650k but what I'm seeing out there feels like this can't continue for too much longer. One of my coworkers is closing this Friday on a 690k house with only 5% down. WTF!
The market is definitely frothy.
- Return of HELOC mailers from major banks
- Return of non-conventional low down payment financing
I don't think it's a great buyer's market unfortunately.
I will say over the long term, you should be okay buying now (10 years +). But I wouldn't expect any great housing appreciation in the next 10 years which is one of the perks of buying a home for most people.
That's interesting, because in Newport Beach the market is actually pretty slow. Prices are certainly very high, but I have monitored the market for the last year and single family homes in Newport under 2m are staying on the market for a long time and usually going for well under asking. I would say that I see 10 price decreases for every price increase, and like I said I'm monitoring it daily. Every once in a while a place will go quickly, but that is pretty rare. I'm not going to comment on the market for the rest of Orange County, I only follow Newport Beach, Corona Del Mar and the Newport Coast, and I only look at single family homes for under 2m, but the stuff I look at is sitting on the market and people are not getting asking prices. Silicon Valley is where things are really hot, places there are getting bid up like crazy, and nothing good is sitting on the market. Prices there are also higher than they are in Newport. Zillow rates Newport as cold, a buyer's market. It estimates prices will remain flat for the next year.
But I know exactly what you mean, the market seems to be very inflated. I certainly would not feel pressured to get in right now, I suspect there will be a correction, but who really knows.
You're talking about a more exclusive market in NB. The price alone limits your buyer pool. There are 300 people looking at the 5-700k while maybe 3 looking at 2 mil plus
OC is crazy right now. My neighbor just went on the market at 520k. He bought in 2012 at 360. Cash. So he's gonna walk away with 480k. From what another neighbor said it was a bidding war and went pending in a few days.
It's almost making me think of selling just to cash out and maybe buy on the downside. Whenever that may be.
HELOCS have always been there and I'm sure plenty of people are gonna fall in that trap. What people fail to realize is banks don't care. They will just do what has already been done in 08/12. Just another transfer of wealth.
Buy now buy later makes no difference. Housing has never gotten cheaper for too long. When it has nobody but select few can afford to buy. Like I said a Joe Average wasn't buying houses in the last downturn
Last edited by Electrician4you; 05-01-2017 at 06:19 PM..
You're talking about a more exclusive market in NB. The price alone limits your buyer pool. There are 300 people looking at the 5-700k while maybe 3 looking at 2 mil plus
Absolutely. That's why I said that my analysis is just based on that small section of the market, but I'm talking about 2 mil and less, not 2 mil and up. Within that market the majority are in the 1.5 to 2 range, there really are not many under that unless you want to live under the airport or you want something to fix up. The only single family homes that have been selling quickly for under 2 mil in Newport are the ones that are really priced aggressively. I don't know about homes over 2 mil because I don't look at them. But there ARE markets where homes in the 1.5 to 2 range are getting bid up, Silicon Valley being one of them, although Menlo Park has very few homes in that price range, things are worse there than in Newport. I would say it is normal for homes in the market I'm looking at to go for 100k less than initial asking. The only ones that are being bid up are the ones where the price is super aggressive, and those are rare.
I should emphasize though that I don't see the market I'm looking at as a buyer's market, despite what Zillow says. Homes might be staying on the market for a long time, and sellers might not be getting their initial asking prices, but values are still very high. Zillow thinks Newport is not going to go up, so buying now will get you an asset that is likely to be flat for the next few years, or possibly decline in value. That does not mean someone shouldn't buy, if you can afford it and you want to stay somewhere for 20 years it makes sense, but to buy now and think the market is likely to keep going up (at least the market I'm looking at) is probably not a good plan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electrician4you
It's almost making me think of selling just to cash out and maybe buy on the downside. Whenever that may be.
I know what you mean. I bought in 2011, and I could sell now and make quite a bit of pure profit. It is a risk though, we really don't know just how big of a correction is coming, and I'm in a house I really like at a price I'm very comfortable with. I don't need anything more than what I have right now, so to sell and hope things correct enough to make it worth it is definitely dicey. I want to stay in Newport in a similar home to what I've got, so it would really be rolling the dice to sell now, despite how much profit I would make.
Absolutely. That's why I said that my analysis is just based on that small section of the market, but I'm talking about 2 mil and less, not 2 mil and up. Within that market the majority are in the 1.5 to 2 range, there really are not many under that unless you want to live under the airport or you want something to fix up. The only single family homes that have been selling quickly for under 2 mil in Newport are the ones that are really priced aggressively. I don't know about homes over 2 mil because I don't look at them. But there ARE markets where homes in the 1.5 to 2 range are getting bid up, Silicon Valley being one of them, although Menlo Park has very few homes in that price range, things are worse there than in Newport. I would say it is normal for homes in the market I'm looking at to go for 100k less than initial asking. The only ones that are being bid up are the ones where the price is super aggressive, and those are rare.
I should emphasize though that I don't see the market I'm looking at as a buyer's market, despite what Zillow says. Homes might be staying on the market for a long time, and sellers might not be getting their initial asking prices, but values are still very high. Zillow thinks Newport is not going to go up, so buying now will get you an asset that is likely to be flat for the next few years, or possibly decline in value. That does not mean someone shouldn't buy, if you can afford it and you want to stay somewhere for 20 years it makes sense, but to buy now and think the market is likely to keep going up (at least the market I'm looking at) is probably not a good plan.
I know what you mean. I bought in 2011, and I could sell now and make quite a bit of pure profit. It is a risk though, we really don't know just how big of a correction is coming, and I'm in a house I really like at a price I'm very comfortable with. I don't need anything more than what I have right now, so to sell and hope things correct enough to make it worth it is definitely dicey. I want to stay in Newport in a similar home to what I've got, so it would really be rolling the dice to sell now, despite how much profit I would make.
I'm betting the correction is going to be very slight. Banks already did one run. If it happens again it won't drop like last time. You might have a flattening in a year or so and maybe a bit of a drop in two years. That's if anything happens to the rates. I've gone through two of these downturns. In all cases the housing regained value and surpassed the last high price.
I'm betting the correction is going to be very slight. Banks already did one run. If it happens again it won't drop like last time. You might have a flattening in a year or so and maybe a bit of a drop in two years. That's if anything happens to the rates. I've gone through two of these downturns. In all cases the housing regained value and surpassed the last high price.
I am with you 100%. People also forget that we printed trillions of dollars and that some of that money is slowly seeping in to the economy. These numbers are play money.
Absolutely. That's why I said that my analysis is just based on that small section of the market, but I'm talking about 2 mil and less, not 2 mil and up. Within that market the majority are in the 1.5 to 2 range, there really are not many under that unless you want to live under the airport or you want something to fix up. The only single family homes that have been selling quickly for under 2 mil in Newport are the ones that are really priced aggressively. I don't know about homes over 2 mil because I don't look at them. But there ARE markets where homes in the 1.5 to 2 range are getting bid up, Silicon Valley being one of them, although Menlo Park has very few homes in that price range, things are worse there than in Newport. I would say it is normal for homes in the market I'm looking at to go for 100k less than initial asking. The only ones that are being bid up are the ones where the price is super aggressive, and those are rare.
I should emphasize though that I don't see the market I'm looking at as a buyer's market, despite what Zillow says. Homes might be staying on the market for a long time, and sellers might not be getting their initial asking prices, but values are still very high. Zillow thinks Newport is not going to go up, so buying now will get you an asset that is likely to be flat for the next few years, or possibly decline in value. That does not mean someone shouldn't buy, if you can afford it and you want to stay somewhere for 20 years it makes sense, but to buy now and think the market is likely to keep going up (at least the market I'm looking at) is probably not a good plan.
I know what you mean. I bought in 2011, and I could sell now and make quite a bit of pure profit. It is a risk though, we really don't know just how big of a correction is coming, and I'm in a house I really like at a price I'm very comfortable with. I don't need anything more than what I have right now, so to sell and hope things correct enough to make it worth it is definitely dicey. I want to stay in Newport in a similar home to what I've got, so it would really be rolling the dice to sell now, despite how much profit I would make.
Newport is not really indicative of OC as a whole. It shot up way before other areas long ago. There are relatively few houses there compared to the rest of the county, there are many investors, and changes to the tax structure may well harm property owners at the highest end.
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