Mild and Dry Winter 2018-19 (Medford, Corvallis: 2013, university, live)

[Omegaraptor]

It's late January and I haven't seen a raindrop in several days. Precipitation for this month will be nearly 2" below normal. December was also below normal and November was far below normal. Mt Hood snowpack is currently only 50% of normal and I've only seen one or two powder days so far this ski season.

The temperatures are also very mild. For the PDX airport, the lowest high seen this entire year is 42ºF and we've only had 9 frosts (airport record least in one season is 17), with the coldest temperature recorded at 29ºF.

I see some rain and colder temperatures coming up in the forecast and on the models, but sadly, it will probably be very light rain. Anyone else a little concerned about the lack of rain/wildfire season this summer?

The rest of the state looks pretty similar in regards to winter weather, but I could be wrong as snowpack is better in Eastern Oregon. How is your part of Oregon doing?

[PNW-type-gal]

The thing I pay the most attention to is the snowpack - here in Southern Oregon we've had a bit of rain the last couple weeks but the snow pack is well below average at about 65%. I think that in this last storm the snow levels were pretty high and a lot of the precip fell as rain rather than snow. Several local rivers were in flood stage after the storm.

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal...cs142p2_046169

For the water year (which starts in October and runs through the end of September) in Medford we are at almost 8" of rain, which is several inches below average (yearly average is 18.5" of rain). And that is after a big rain storm that put the January rainfall at almost 2" above average. The avg precip for February is 2.2", March is 2.0", April is 1.4", so it'll take several big rainstorms to get us anywhere near average.

[Omegaraptor]

We got the storm in January as well - 1.11" on January 18. However, it fell mostly as rain in the mountains and we were so far below normal that it didn't get us to above normal.

[tinytowne]

We just moved to Florence in December. We were expecting it to have a lot more rain and gloomy days. This is the 4th day in a row it is gorgeous blue skies and up to about 60 degrees. The past two months we have seen a lot of those beautiful dry days. And when it has rained, it wasn't much except for a few days. It certainly is enjoyable, but not worth it if he means more fire risk. I see it is supposed to rain later in the week, even shows one day with snow. I don't imagine it will stick.

[texasdiver]

I'm not sure that winter drought equates to more summer fire risk.

My understanding was that rainy springs lead to a lot more springtime growth of grasses, brush, and other undergrowth, which provides more fuel for August and September fires when all that new annual growth has dried up.

The horrible fire season we had in the summer of 2017 (when the gorge burned) followed an extremely rainy (and snowy) winter in 2016-17.

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by tinytowne

We just moved to Florence in December. We were expecting it to have a lot more rain and gloomy days. This is the 4th day in a row it is gorgeous blue skies and up to about 60 degrees. The past two months we have seen a lot of those beautiful dry days. And when it has rained, it wasn't much except for a few days. It certainly is enjoyable, but not worth it if he means more fire risk. I see it is supposed to rain later in the week, even shows one day with snow. I don't imagine it will stick.

Shhh, don't tell them. Otherwise everyone will want to move over here.

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

I'm not sure that winter drought equates to more summer fire risk.

My understanding was that rainy springs lead to a lot more springtime growth of grasses, brush, and other undergrowth, which provides more fuel for August and September fires when all that new annual growth has dried up.

The horrible fire season we had in the summer of 2017 (when the gorge burned) followed an extremely rainy (and snowy) winter in 2016-17.

So why are there so many fires during droughts? It's always dry during August and September, but the fire season starts well before that. The problem is not springtime growth of grass, brush, and undergrowth. The problem is dried out grass, brush, and undergrowth.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

So why are there so many fires during droughts? It's always dry during August and September, but the fire season starts well before that. The problem is not springtime growth of grass, brush, and undergrowth. The problem is dried out grass, brush, and undergrowth.

Here in the Pacific Northwest I'm not sure there actually is a big correlation between drought and fire seasons. That is different from places like say New Mexico or Colorado where the rain patterns are different and they depend on summer monsoon rains to keep the fire hazard down. Or even California where the drought and disease lead to tremendous swaths of dead and dying trees.

But this is all just off the top of my head. If we had extreme drought that lead to massive die-offs of Douglas fir forests like they have experienced in places like NM and CO that would be different.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Here in the Pacific Northwest I'm not sure there actually is a big correlation between drought and fire seasons. That is different from places like say New Mexico or Colorado where the rain patterns are different and they depend on summer monsoon rains to keep the fire hazard down. Or even California where the drought and disease lead to tremendous swaths of dead and dying trees.

But this is all just off the top of my head. If we had extreme drought that lead to massive die-offs of Douglas fir forests like they have experienced in places like NM and CO that would be different.

I think I'll take the word of the World Meteorological Organization over the top of your head.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news...bate-wildfires

The drought is definitely playing a role in Oregon wildfires.

Warm, dry springs are also known to increase chances of fire.

After a winter of below-average snowpack, and one of the hottest and driest spring seasons on record, much of Oregon could become a tinderbox by late summer and fall.

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/sto...mer/780327002/

https://www.oregonlive.com/hg/index....ard_by_ye.html

CORVALLIS, Ore. - Conifers in Oregon are getting hit hard by several years of drought, to the point that many are dying.

"Beginning in 2013-14, we started to see significant impact on Doug-firs in western Oregon, particularly in the south end of the state," said Dave Shaw, a forest health specialist with Oregon State University Extension Service. "Now you'll notice them checking out up and down the I-5 corridor."

It's past the point of just Doug-firs, however. Many conifers, including Western red cedar, incense cedar, grand fir and even valley ponderosa pine are succumbing, as well.

BTW, no one said that winter drought is the sole cause of the fires. It's a combination of factors, and yes, the lack of rain in coastal areas is concerning.

[PNW-type-gal]

We only got the edge of the last storm to pass through California, but it took snow pack in the Sierras up to 100%. We are still at 62% in the southern Cascades. There is another storm coming through this weekend in to Tuesday next week that is supposed to be fairly wet, maybe that will push the snow pack up.