Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Gilbert: bank owned, month to)

[Howard Roark]

Just did that one month ago. A 12 month apartment lease and a very clean and quiet part of Phoenix. I love it! Renting is freedom!

Personally, I am warming up my lease renewal pen.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

I say buy when you are ready and able and for get about anything else. In the old days people bought homes to live in and not as an investment like today. Many times they just stayed in those homes and passed them down to the kids or grandkids. My Uncle lives in the home he grew up in. My grandparents owned it before he did. My great grandparents owned it before my grandparents did. The home has been in my moms family for the past 90+ years. That will end when my uncle and aunt pass away, unless my cousins rent it out. Chances are they will sell it though.

My parents lived in their home in Port Hueneme Ca for 38 years before selling and moving to their home in Surprise over 7 years ago. we still have friends on that same street that have never left. The thought I am passing on is that for many they buy and hold onto a house and make it a home. The truth is that it cost you to move over and over again. That is money you can stick away if you can keep the home you buy and just live in it. Look at people like Warren Buffet, he still lives in the home he bought back in 1958.

[Howard Roark]

Good point Soon2bNSurprise. However there are some communities (think many places in Detroit) that started off great yet decayed to rubble and crime. My parents' house is in a bad area (parents passed away years ago and I sold it for a modest price). If their house was in Laguna Beach with an ocean view, I probably would get top dollar. Or in Palos Verdes Estates. I met an elderly couple years ago who bought in PVE in the 1950s when it was cheap there. Their house is probably estimated at $1,000,000. It's a gamble where to put a house. a volcano can appear right underneath! 7. The youngest mountain

Moral: Never expect anything or anyone to stay the same. Anticipate change.

[jimj]

Very good point S2BIS! We bought just outside of Surprise thinking the same thing. We've gotta live somewhere and don't really like renting unless we have no other choice. Apt managers can be a PIA, people on top of each other create issues like noise and even as drastic as butchering a live goat in the living room next door (had that happen btw). Renting houses has a whole different set of issues especially in this market. What if the landlord goes into forclosure? Landlords that don't maintain their property for various reasons (slum lords,broke etc.) or just get up pissy one day and you get bounced.
Nope, we want to be in control of our own destiny as much as possible which means "owning" our own house. Am I worried about it losing short term value? Not really, this will all shake out eventually and while it may stay flat for years with small ups and downs that's fine, I'm not looking to make a killing anyway.

[Howard Roark]

Gross - butchering a live goat in the living room next door - Somehow I strongly doubt this was in an upscale apartment complex. Worse things can happen in the SFH next door to one you own, don't forget.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Gross - butchering a live goat in the living room next door - Somehow I strongly doubt this was in an upscale apartment complex. Worse things can happen in the SFH next door to one you own, don't forget.

Actually it was a middle class to upper middle class apt complex, several SF Giants baseball players lived in the complex as well.

As for the worse things, you're right it can but it's less likely imo.

[EnicAZ]

Originally Posted by rjrcm

ARMLS has made no such prediction. In fact, if you look at their latest Pending Price Index report, they are predicting flat to slightly up by the end of November. Check my post on the PPI at this link.

Within the Realtor site, and you will find the Cromford report, which predicts further immediate declines in home values for the Phoenix area. Without the tax credit, the market and sales has really taken a hit.

[EnicAZ]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Just did that one month ago. A 12 month apartment lease and a very clean and quiet part of Phoenix. I love it! Renting is freedom!

With the near-unanimous predictions of falling home values, waiting at least 6 to 9 months to see where things are is a very wise move. The end of the home buyer tax credit has really damaged confidence in the market, and improvement in the labor market is hard to find. I'm hoping to find some stability in the numbers down the road, but for now people don't want to lose their money.

HOA's are also getting battered right now. My ARMLS stats show sales have really fallen off.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Within the Realtor site, and you will find the Cromford report, which predicts further immediate declines in home values for the Phoenix area. Without the tax credit, the market and sales has really taken a hit.

Yes, I know about the Cromford report (which is not ARMLS, although endorsed by them). And I have no argument with the Cromford's prediction of immediate declines. I have a problem with your assertion that the data supports a long term 25%+ drop over the next year, which may or may not happen, but I don't see a convincing argument based on your discussion.

[EnicAZ]

rjrcm, It's not that most people want it to happen, but it's how the evidence sits before us. The housing crash was stopped half way by the federal government using artificial and temporary incentives. Now that the government has started removing these, and the labor market continues to decline, the adjustment of prices will continue to where it was going to go. Our office calculations are not for 25%+ drop over the next year, but 25-40% over the next couple of years.

Much of it has to do with deleveraging in the overall economy, and inability of wages to rise or for job creation to take place. Our country's debt load keeps increasing as well. I wish there was some way we could find and create some long-term job prospects.