Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (camper, tax credit)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

AZJack, thanks for the website of the house data! I see that as valuable. Added it to my favorite links!

I gave AZjack some positive feedback for that link. I also agree with his inflation point of view. I shop like I was am still in college.

Howard, please share some of your valuable links. I'm in "research mode" right now studying new towns that I can now better afford like Gilbert.

[waltcolorado]

Some day, we will be over this "great recession" and some threads are going to be classics.. This one (from maybe the real estate bubble "epicenter") will probably be interesting to re-read in five years.

One thing I think would be true is that data sources such as MLS or Zillow are going to have maybe a 2 month delay in what is actually happening in the market. Ie, the real estate deal where price is actually set is made maybe 6 weeks before closing (banks may be even slowing things down more than this at the moment) and then it takes some some time for the info to get into the data banks. Some markets probably have already turned the corner.. and you wont know it until later unless your in the trenches. If you are looking to try and time the bottom, also keep in mind that inventory and choice is going to be a lot better on the side before the bottom than after the bottom.

Speaking of Zillow, I have heard people say they don't trust it for home values. It seems to me zillow cant take into account home details - but it is just a data base that tracks sales so would seem to have value if you are looking for trends..

Any comments about how accurate Zillow is (I check it fairly often).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by waltcolorado

Some day, we will be over this "great recession" and some threads are going to be classics.. This one (from maybe the real estate bubble "epicenter") will probably be interesting to re-read in five years.

One thing I think would be true is that data sources such as MLS or Zillow are going to have maybe a 2 month delay in what is actually happening in the market. Ie, the real estate deal where price is actually set is made maybe 6 weeks before closing (banks may be even slowing things down more than this at the moment) and then it takes some some time for the info to get into the data banks. Some markets probably have already turned the corner.. and you wont know it until later unless your in the trenches. If you are looking to try and time the bottom, also keep in mind that inventory and choice is going to be a lot better on the side before the bottom than after the bottom.

Speaking of Zillow, I have heard people say they don't trust it for home values. It seems to me zillow cant take into account home details - but it is just a data base that tracks sales so would seem to have value if you are looking for trends..

Any comments about how accurate Zillow is (I check it fairly often).

Two month delays in the numbers goes both ways. See Home Price Reports Don’t Show Declines (Yet) - Developments - WSJ

So smart(er) folks are trying to time things "better" by looking at mortgage application volumes, short sale maps of neighborhoods to study trends etc. But in three months, the market moves so fast.

Last time the $8K 1st time buyers program messed up my timing. I think I might jump on in in the next couple of months. If I get a "steal" now and only spend $160K or below, my risks are reduced. By definition, I cannot lose more than $160K. I wish I could say that for my homes that are a lot more $$"s here in MN. There is a lot of risk even though they already went down 30%.

I don't want another home until I feel comfortable jumping in. I am gaining confidence that this fall might be it.

[Ritchie_az]

A drop in values of 3.5-4% each month through the rest of 2010 is the consensus here.

I'm looking forward to the next two years so I can repost these predictions....

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

The August sales numbers from our office are looking pretty grim. We were hoping to do better than this, since August is usually a time when families are rushing to get ready for the upcoming school year.

Some members in my office have placed further downward projections on home values for this coming fall. The election is wild card, but it might already be too late for the government to do anything before that time comes. A drop in values of 3.5-4% each month through the rest of 2010 is the consensus here.

How, exactly, are you expecting to "do better than this" if you only have one (1) client?

[Rubee]

Originally Posted by waltcolorado

Any comments about how accurate Zillow is (I check it fairly often).

I don't know how Zillow arrives at their numbers. For example: The house behind is us the same model as ours, but sold last year after the builder lowered the base price but also cut out standards that were included in ours - i.e., fireplace, granite, custom lighting, pre-wired alarm system, etc. They're also on about a 1/3 smaller lot, minimal landscaping in front, nothing in back, and stepped-down; in other words, their backyard view is our wall, while ours looks out over their roofline at the mountain. We also took a walk-through when it was a spec for sale and it had a lot of standard finishes, carpet and standard tile where we have travertine, corian instead of granite, etc., yet I just checked and Zillow lists them as $35,000 more. It doesn't make a difference as we love our house and are in it for the long haul (and still paying less than we rented in Boston), but it makes me scratch my head regarding what numbers they use.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

See 85396 Buckeye real estate notebook — Arizona Real Estate Notebook

Look at the graphs of 85396. People who bought last April of 2009 saw their values go up $10K a year later. Since May of 2010 until September 1st 2010, prices have dropped $20K or over 10%! Now look at the nose DIVE of "days on market". It seems the banks are dealing and they are releasing property (because inventory is rising).

[Fumari]

When do they anticipate the market returning to what it was back in 2004-2005?

I am looking to purchase a house in the next year or two, my fiancee and myself are looking for a good starter home in north phoenix under 100k.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

The site (See Arizona Real Estate Notebook ) is a great one to bookmark. You can see the trends of any zip code.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Fumari

When do they anticipate the market returning to what it was back in 2004-2005?

I am looking to purchase a house in the next year or two, my fiancee and myself are looking for a good starter home in north phoenix under 100k.

Who could ever know?? Heck, they cannot figure what is going to happen in 6 months let alone 3-10 years from now.


I will say this. You are PROBABLY fine from a home appreciating out of your budget in the next year. My gut says next September will be at or lower one year from now. But not a lot lower (or higher) in your price range. I'm guessing off of probabilities like everyone else.