Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Congress: big house, gated)

[Howard Roark]

JimJ,

Stopping foreclosures won't prevent the need to pay the piper. Someone is going to pay for this socialist meddling in the market. I am sure the government is forcing banks to stop foreclosures to make the regime look better than it is. When that someone pays the piper, that means there is less money to invest / spend elsewhere. Don't be fooled. It's smoke and mirrors to delay the inevitable.

I am thankful it's a delay though. It gets me more time to get my own finances in even better shape, buying more precious metals and treasury bills. But the real losers will be the knife catchers.

[EnicAZ]

A temporary slowing of foreclosures will only prolong the housing crisis into the future. Howard Roark, you are correct in your assessment of this. There is a reaction for every action of government intervention, and it has made the housing crisis worse. With the increased amount of uncertainty now in the housing market, the time frame until price stabilization and discovery of a bottom keeps getting pushed further out. It may be advisable to wait 9 months or longer to reassess the status of Phoenix's falling home values.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

JimJ,

It gets me more time to get my own finances in even better shape, buying more precious metals and treasury bills. But the real losers will be the knife catchers.

See There Are No Words To Describe The Following Part*II - Home - The Daily Bail (I MUST watch video).

Are you sure you want to buy treasury bills??

[azjack]

Admittedly, I have not followed the lender-initiated foreclosure (with some political, judicial pressure) halts super closely. Primarily because explanations of MERS documentation bore me to tears. I will note that an article regarding the Bank of America halt in 23 states did not include Arizona as one of those states.

It does seem that even lengthier delays would only draw out the issue, as those loans are unlikely to be made current in the interim. Of course, the lenders/servicers should be required to follow the law.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

"The likelihood is that people currently facing foreclosure have a better chance to negotiate some kind of compromise with the lender" that will prevent foreclosure, Kessler said.
"There is a potential for class action liability in the United States for billions and billions of dollars on behalf of homeowners who lost their homes in proceedings where lenders used these kinds of phony documents."

From AFP: Foreclosures bungle could hit US banks

AZ is not listed as one of these Robo-signing States. Hence, the foreclosure departments might be more easily focused on AZ. One never knows...

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

JimJ,Someone is going to pay for this socialist meddling in the market. I am sure the government is forcing banks to stop foreclosures to make the regime look better than it is.

Yeah - the Capitalists @ JPMorgan/Citi/BofA/Chase/Goldman, etc needed a "socialist" bailout so they wouldn't have to go out of business like capitalist organizations are supposed to be allowed to do...

Why is it only "socialism" when it's a handout to a regular working stiff?

As for the foreclosure robo-signers, it has nothing to do with AZ - we don't have judicial foreclosures, so the banks didn't file any fraudulent docs with the court. They did lots of other slimy things, but not that particular offense.

In any case - expecting the AZ "justice system" to hold the banks accountable and taint the titles of foreclosures is akin to believing in the tooth fairy.

If you've even been to court in AZ, you know the odds of drawing a "kangaroo" are 80/20 - in favor of the 'Roo..

[EnicAZ]

"AZ is not listed as one of these Robo-signing States. Hence, the foreclosure departments might be more easily focused on AZ."

This is a strong probability. Additional resources may be assigned to Arizona foreclosure departments to accelerate foreclosures. It is a game the lenders have been playing. They know, and sales offices know there is a 5+ year supply of houses in shadow inventory in the Phoenix area. If they dumped all of the inventory at once, prices would dramatically plummet. By leveling out the home value declines over time, adjustments to balance sheets can be made more easily.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

They know, and sales offices know there is a 5+ year supply of houses in shadow inventory in the Phoenix area.

Alright, lets look at your numbers, Eric....

Average annual sales volume in Phoenix going back to 2000 range from about 55,000 to just over 100,000 homes per year. If we pick a number in the middle - to average out the tax-credit mania, and the sales slump caused by $300k "starter" homes being unaffordable, we'd get a "real" annual demand around 75,000 homes.

You've just stated there are five years worth of homes being "hidden" from the market.

That's 225,000 homes, in addition to the roughly 60k currently on the market.

If the average Phoenix household size is 2.79 people, your number would indicate that 627,750 MORE people in Phoenix will be soon - homeless.

If I believed your numbers - I'd be buying properties to rent!

Take a peek at Phoenix's population growth from 1960 to present.

http://www.censusscope.org/us/s4/m6200/chart_popl.html

Who wins when a city grows?

Not renters...

[azjack]

"If the average Phoenix household size is 2.79 people, your number would indicate that 627,750 MORE people in Phoenix will be soon - homeless."

Foreclosed houses rarely mean homelessness.

People rent, people move, and many speculator houses were never occupied in the first place.

[EnicAZ]

Hi Zippyman,

When you are talking about the number of sales going back to 2000, you are looking at the split up MLS. A couple of years ago, they combined them all together under one system, the ARMLS which gives today's complete area wide numbers.

We know that the Phoenix area's popuation has been stagnant at best since 2007, and many sources say it has been declining. Phoenix lost more jobs than any other city this past recession, and the real unemployment rate is close to 20% when you look at the U-6 numbers.

The biggest problem in the Phoenix area is the lack of jobs. The WSJ stated that the average number of real inventory in the average American city is 3 years of sales worth. Phoenix has the highest number of foreclosures of any U.S. city. Las Vegas has the highest percent of foreclosures, but Phoenix has the most. Some have been saying the inventory number in Phoenix are closer to 8 years worth, but I try to stay on the optimistic side. This is a part of the component driving the calculations of a 25-40% decline in home values from this summer. Home values already fell 7 percent from last month, and September is looking to have more declines.

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