Phoenix tops nation in home value declines (foreclose, rent)

[SeaG]

I mentioned in another thread that our agent emails us when a listing changes (including prices). None of the homes we have shortlisted have gone up

This is totally unscientific, but I just did some math on the first 8 of our list that have been on the market at least since Sep 1, 2010.

Every one has gone down:

Average price as of Sep 1: $ 136,137
Average price as of Oct 27: $ 123,674.50
Average decline : $ 12,462.50 or about 9%

Of the 8, 2 are foreclosures - the other 6 are conventional sales.

We are seeing similar declines up here in Anthem, through word of mouth we have had owners approach us willing to do a conventional sale for what the foreclosures were this time last year.

Like I said this isn't scientific, but it sure looks like the areas we are concentrating on are coming down.

Just my two-bits worth.

Seag

[EnicAZ]

Seag,

These are the types of numbers I have seeing throughout the Valley, as foreclosuregate continues to scare away investors, who have been the only active major component of sales the past few months. They are concerned about foreclosure sales being suddenly pulled, being tied up in legal battles for titles, and future issues selling the properties. Title insurance companies have already been blacklisting certain lenders, which effectively ceases any activity in their market sector.

[Ritchie_az]

Every one has gone down:

Average price as of Sep 1: $ 136,137
Average price as of Oct 27: $ 123,674.50
Average decline : $ 12,462.50 or about 9%

How do these compare to recent sales of similar homes in the area? Is it possible that the original listing prices were above or even well above the comps? If so, then the decline in asking price is (basically) unrelated to the actual value (except that they may have been asking for more than the house was worth based on comps...).
We're waiting for the sale info on a home down the street (that just sold) to become available to find out if it sold for more, less or the same as ours (purchased a little over a year ago).

...not that it matters, one way or the other, to us, but we are curious nonetheless....

[twiggy]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

I would put as much faith in the Chicken Little's out there as I would a televangelist....

Well, I guess that includes all of us as well, guess we will just have to wait and see for ourselves. Get back to this thread in 2034 and we will see if the chicken littles knew what they were talking about.

[Ritchie_az]

Get back to this thread in 2034 and we will see if the chicken littles knew what they were talking about.

Exactly. I'm bookmarking it....

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

Exactly. I'm bookmarking it....

Not me. I'll give the fat cats and the big cigars a couple more years to clean up this mess they made. If they don't I'm "selling" my house to the bank and moving on. Life's too short and they're too rich to do otherwise.

[Ritchie_az]

Every one has gone down:

Average price as of Sep 1: $ 136,137
Average price as of Oct 27: $ 123,674.50
Average decline : $ 12,462.50 or about 9%

Of the 8, 2 are foreclosures - the other 6 are conventional sales.

I guess to further illustrate, a conventional sale of the same floorplan in my neighborhood is on the market for $205k. I paid $135k for my place a little over a year ago, and about 4-5 months or so ago someone purchased the same floorplan for $138k. (All three are pretty much equal). Will that house actually sell for $205k? Absolutely not! It might get $140k or, maybe if they are lucky, $145k. A lot will depend on another house that just sold for... I'm not sure yet. It was listed for $139k.
If that home does sale for $145k, that's a drop of nearly 30% of the original list price. But, at the same time, home values would go up for everyone else.

[Ritchie_az]

Not me. I'll give the fat cats and the big cigars a couple more years to clean up this mess they made. If they don't I'm "selling" my house to the bank and moving on. Life's too short and they're too rich to do otherwise.

And then what?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

And then what?

Move out of PHX and rent!

[Ritchie_az]

Move out of PHX and rent!

Just curious (and I know, off topic), have you thought about where you might like to move to when that time comes?