Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Mesa, Scottsdale: property taxes, malls, appraisal)

[Home Addict]

Originally Posted by Biz901

Not just unfounded, completely ignoring systemic macro-economics that are currently and massively in deleverage mode, with an outcome in the USA that is not only unseen, but seriously in doubt given malinvestment/looting of capital over the last 20 years, and increasing .gov taxation/regulation...

Granted, there will be areas of growth in the future, and median income inflation will eventually gain traction, but I doubt anyone knowledgeable in business and/or capital investment would bet on that on that scenario in the SW USofA

To deleverage, something must be leveraged. Care to share with us what do you mean? If you are referring to housing and/or banking, I would argue that they have been deleveraged already, if not overly so in the SW.

Not sure about GM Proving Ground in particular, but both Allegiant Air and Spirit are now flying in/out of Mesa/Gateway airport. The added jobs to the area is a mild positive, but more so the airlines' decision to establish routes there is a strong positive to the area.

[Biz901]

You're right, I've already said too much...

Stay optimistic and have a great time in Never Never Land

[pgc323]

Yes, quit while you're behind.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Some time ago I posted information about the Mesa General Motors Proving Grounds project that will create around 100,000 high paying jobs.
This was the only thing that I was asking about. I thought I had missed the information in the links. Nothing more, nothing less.

I understand.
Naturally it isn't an overnight creation. I'll be driving by there today. It's been a couple months, so I'm interested in the physical ground preparation progress of Eastmark. I have to get used to that new name.

[bgray9]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

You are correct on two counts:
Below are some links to the full plans at the Mesa Planning Commission plus plans from DMB.

• DMB - Mesa Proving Grounds Project
• Vision For Eastmark - Mesa Proving Grounds
• DMB - Mesa Proving Grounds Project

Here is a snippet from the DMB website:

Study this data, then based on the "study", tell me if you feel my optimism is unfounded.

I follow this stuff and am aware of the various proposals. Frankly, how could I not be if I come on this board, given how often you tout them. As an economist, I realize these things take place in the broader contexts of the Arizona, national, and international economic circumstances. Of course you realize planning commissions are stuffed with plans of projects that never come to fruition? I lived near downtown Tempe at the height of the frenzy there, and there were enough projects in various stages of moving forward it was hard to keep track of them all. Most never came to fruition and show little sign of doing so in the near term future. Maybe your very optimistic outlook will play out in the future, but maybe not. You're not the only one who can make informed judgments about things.

[PoppySead]

Well, I just saw a piece on CNN touting how AZ's real estate market is recovering and homes have risen 3 to 5% this year. Looks like it isn't just optimism. Hopefully we are on the slow and winding road to recovery soon rather than later. Also they mentioned how little inventory we have. Awesome!

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by bgray9

..."You're not the only one who can make informed judgments about things.."

You're absolutely correct. That's why I provide source data for people to do their own research and arrive at their own opinion and discuss the issues.

"...Maybe your very optimistic outlook will play out in the future, but maybe not..."

You're correct again. However, this should not be about attacking anyone's optimism. Any discussion of a project like Eastmark should be about the project, and not about someone’s optimistic or pessimistic view.

Mike Orr seems to think DMB's housing ambitions are realistic.

Mike Orr was quoted as saying: ..."DMB isn’t taking a risk despite years of grim news about Valley real estate, said Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. He expects the builders will start cautiously to avoid putting too many houses on the market at once.

But with 600 to 700 new homes being completed a month in the Valley, Orr said DMB’s ambitions realistic.

“It’s probably a more attractive location than some of the ones they’ve been building over the past decade that are farther out,” Orr said. “DMB is pretty successful over the last 20 years at picking good investments and developing communities at the right place...”

We know that the Gaylord resort was scheduled to begin already, and they obtained an extension from Mesa due to the Nashville Opryland flood and the economy, until 2014. That would push completion to 2017.

This is the latest news article on the project:
3 years and no dirt turned, but $800M Gaylord resort still in Mesa's plans - East Valley Tribune: Phoenix & The Valley Of The Sun

The First Solar fab plant is under construction and expects to be complete by May. The plant will not be fully operational for awhile because of setbacks in the industry: First Solar delays Mesa production plant - Phoenix Business Journal A few pictures of this huge building are below.

The Gateway Growth Area is not all about Eastmark. Although Eastmark is a large part, the Gateway area encompasses much more than that, which was touched on earlier.

It is a very large part of the economic future of the Mesa/Gilbert areas, and many will find it very helpful to keep abreast of the progress of that area.

[bgray9]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

However, this should not be about attacking anyone's optimism. Any discussion of a project like Eastmark should be about the project, and not about someone’s optimistic or pessimistic view.

Or attacking anyone's reasonable pessimism. It cuts both ways, or should.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by bgray9

Or attacking anyone's reasonable pessimism. It cuts both ways, or should.

I think it is more skepticism than pessimism, and as you explain above it is more than justified by historical precedent. One ballyhooed project after another pops up in this metro only to end up on the dust heap and forgotten. Never buy into an area on the promise or plan of a developer that something grand is going to happen there. If the past is any indication, it probably won't, or if it does it won't be nearly as grand and ambitious as it was advertised to be. Elaborate malls have a way of turning into car malls, and Nordstroms into Walmarts in the final product. Buy for what you see there NOW, not some pie in the sky developer dream.

[bgray9]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I think it is more skepticism than pessimism, and as you explain above it is more than justified by historical precedent. One ballyhooed project after another pops up in this metro only to end up on the dust heap and forgotten. Never buy into an area on the promise or plan of a developer that something grand is going to happen there. If the past is any indication, it probably won't, or if it does it won't be nearly as grand and ambitious as it was advertised to be. Elaborate malls have a way of turning into car malls, and Nordstroms into Walmarts in the final product. Buy for what you see there NOW, not some pie in the sky developer dream.

You're right. Skepticism is probably a better word. But, skepticism isn't always the most welcome thing when people want to project what they'd hope will happen in the future. I think some folks struggle to separate the fact that a person can be a reasonable skeptic, but still hope for and work toward the best.