Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Mesa, Gilbert: ski resort, apartments, mortgage broker)

[jdahunt]

I like Reagan's "trust but verify" statement.

I do a lot of business in the nuclear industry, one of their main idea's is to challenge or have a questioning attitude.

[Kimballette]

Let's get the discussion back on track here --> "Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking." Get back to the topic, please. Off topic posts will be deleted from this point forward.

[ReadyFreddy]

East valley development can help bolster real estate values. (Just figured I better tie in my next statement to the title of thread!) When someone tells me they foresee a sea of 10 story buildings in far southeast Mesa, the critical part of my mind rolls its eyes a little bit.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I think it is more skepticism than pessimism, and as you explain above it is more than justified by historical precedent. One ballyhooed project after another pops up in this metro only to end up on the dust heap and forgotten. Never buy into an area on the promise or plan of a developer that something grand is going to happen there. If the past is any indication, it probably won't, or if it does it won't be nearly as grand and ambitious as it was advertised to be. Elaborate malls have a way of turning into car malls, and Nordstroms into Walmarts in the final product. Buy for what you see there NOW, not some pie in the sky developer dream.

I'm not a land investor, nor do I work with land in any way. However, if I were a land investor, then I would buy land based on my estimate of the future use and value of that land, before everyone else knows what's happening in a given area.

DMB did not just buy that land. I think they bought it before others envisioned what could happen in that area.

I look at the Gilbert area, and the construction that's going on now with new homes, the Mormon Temple that has the outside walls almost complete; the expansion of Greenfield Rd in that area; the new church going up to the east of the Temple; and a housing development breaking ground to the east of that, almost over to Higley.

Because of the Temple in the San Tan Growth area where the San Tan Village is located, there will be much more growth in that area, filling in to the east.

Then from the railroad at Williams Field Rd over to the airport, which is part of Gilbert's Gateway Growth area, is a natural for commercial businesses to locate as the airport grows; and it will. Just as the Oakland Airport (across the Bay from the San Francisco airport) grew over a number of years, so will the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway airport. We know that 2 new airlines are serving the airport now, and the airport has been talking to 29 airlines.

Growth, job creation motivate Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport

Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport expansion planned

That growth direction, to the east, is the natural direction to grow as Gilbert builds out, and that direction goes to the airport, and then to the east to Eastmark. To the east of Eastmark, east of Signal Butte, there are already many homes that were built since 2000.

The freeways are there. It's very easy to get to that area now via the 202, and the 202 gives quick access to the airport now.

Will Eastmark turn into a pie in the sky project dead in the water? Perhaps, but I don't think so.

Opinion: Type of homes near Gateway is a critical choice

Will it be exactly as on the general plan now? Perhaps not. But I don't envision it dying.

Growth in an area this size takes many years, but growth does happen, and I remain highly optimistic about this little corner of the world.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

East valley development can help bolster real estate values. (Just figured I better tie in my next statement to the title of thread!) When someone tells me they foresee a sea of 10 story buildings in far southeast Mesa, the critical part of my mind rolls its eyes a little bit.

If they were talking about next year, I would agree; no chance. The statement was made about something envisioned 30-40 years from now. By then Gilbert will have been built out, and that part of Mesa will probably be built out. It is normal to go up when they can't be built out.

My feeling is that the growth happening in Gilbert right now, and the growth happening in east Mesa, including the airport, right now, and planned for the future, is going to be a big help to the future of the east valley real estate market.

[roosevelt]

I'm thinking property taxes are hurting the recovery, they keep going up. My taxes are now approaching what my mortgage payment used to be 10 years ago.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by roosevelt

I'm thinking property taxes are hurting the recovery, they keep going up. My taxes are now approaching what my mortgage payment used to be 10 years ago.

Not for me. My taxes have gone down and are about the same as 1 month's mortgage payment. HOA fees though, that is another story.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by roosevelt

I'm thinking property taxes are hurting the recovery, they keep going up. My taxes are now approaching what my mortgage payment used to be 10 years ago.

Have you ever been back east?

[JoeC]

Originally Posted by roosevelt

I'm thinking property taxes are hurting the recovery, they keep going up. My taxes are now approaching what my mortgage payment used to be 10 years ago.

Up here, my monthly property taxes already exceed my mortgage payment.

In comparison to Chicago, the Valley's RE taxes are a joke. Scottsdale's are particularly hilarious...

[Potential_Landlord]

Question for the experts: if my appraisal comes in too low and LTV is >80%, can I pay down my mortgage to LTV <80% after the appraisal? Do I have a "cash-in grace period"? - I want to avoid paying PMI. Thanks, PL