Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Chandler, Gilbert: to move, yard, education)

[khuntrevor]

even floor covering could come into play with FHA.

[Captain Bill]

Last night channel 3 had a segment on how the Phoenix real estate market was improving. They did a brief interview with Mike Orr who offered some information. I was busy and didn't hear it all, but it appeared to be a positive report.

USA Today had an article which stated that many of the real estate markets will bottom in 2012, and they said Zillow "zestimates" Phoenix will increase by 6%.
Zillow forecasts 2012 bottom in home prices

Now we have 6 predictions:

• Actinic ...................... Stay the Same
• Housing Predictor.......Down 7%
• Forecast Chart .......... Down (with 85% probability)
  .
• Zillow.........................Up 6%
• Autism360..................Up 25% yoy SFR and UP 35% yoy Condo's
• Cromford Report .......Up 25% by August

As of April 21:

• 12.6% Increase in monthly price per square foot (all types, all Phoenix Metro)
• 14.5% Increase in monthly Median price
• Months Supply of Inventory was 3.4 months in January, spiked up then continued declining to 2.5 months today. (That's overall inventory --- Remember it's different in each price range and sub-markets)
• Sales per Month started out at 7,601 in January, dipped, then increased to 8,938/mo until April 1, and has flattened out.

Below are two charts showing Appreciation by Price Range and Inventory by Price Range to April 1, courtesy of the Cromford Report

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

even floor covering could come into play with FHA.

Interestingly, the flipper rehabbed the whole house top to bottom. It is 100% inhabitable by FHA standard - yet he excludes FHA offers. This may be because his price is steep at 114/sf - I would say 15% above comps at least.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Interestingly, the flipper rehabbed the whole house top to bottom. It is 100% inhabitable by FHA standard - yet he excludes FHA offers. This may be because his price is steep at 114/sf - I would say 15% above comps at least.

It's probably because the buyer will ask for at least 3% closing cost assistance; and if the house doesn't appraise, the buyer won't have enough money to buy down to the appraisal. So the seller can have the home off the market for up to 60 days and probably lose the chance of selling to someone else.

The pendulum swings both ways. When the market was down, the buyers lowballed the sellers. Now that it's a sellers market, the sellers are going to take advantage of it and get every penny they can.

That's the nature of buying and selling.

[CheyDee]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Interestingly, the flipper rehabbed the whole house top to bottom. It is 100% inhabitable by FHA standard - yet he excludes FHA offers. This may be because his price is steep at 114/sf - I would say 15% above comps at least.

Quite honestly, FHA tends to be a PITA. I've sold two houses to FHA buyers in the past and both times closing was delayed by more than 30 days. It was never for a house/repair issue, or anything on my end. I understand the same often happens with VA.

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

It's probably because the buyer will ask for at least 3% closing cost assistance; and if the house doesn't appraise, the buyer won't have enough money to buy down to the appraisal. So the seller can have the home off the market for up to 60 days and probably lose the chance of selling to someone else.

The pendulum swings both ways. When the market was down, the buyers lowballed the sellers. Now that it's a sellers market, the sellers are going to take advantage of it and get every penny they can.

That's the nature of buying and selling.

Captain Bill, could we get the supply by price range for SFR only. I think it will show an even sharper right turn.

[jimj]

Just saw a good sign (for us at least) Beazer homes just changed their advertisement on the semi trailer down the street from "starting in the low $100's" to "starting in the mid $100's". Builders increasing prices says something don't ya think?

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Interestingly, the flipper rehabbed the whole house top to bottom. It is 100% inhabitable by FHA standard - yet he excludes FHA offers. This may be because his price is steep at 114/sf - I would say 15% above comps at least.

They aren't really " comparable" properties unless they have been fully rehabbed as well. An inexpensive full rehab might have cost $20 per sq foot, and still be a bargain.

[Potential_Landlord]

Thanks so much for your insights. We have outstanding know-how on this board. I recommend reading here first before going out and buying something. This is the best and most condensed buyer education I'm aware of. Awesome and thanks again to everyone.

[sunluv]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Thanks so much for your insights. We have outstanding know-how on this board. I recommend reading here first before going out and buying something. This is the best and most condensed buyer education I'm aware of. Awesome and thanks again to everyone.

Agreed. This is a valuable reference to check in on.