Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (manufacturing, land, best)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by matyoka

I knew it's going to come down to this... however I believe in expressing my opinions freely so I guess I was asking for it.

Again, I arrived to JFK as a refugee with a suitcase and the cloths on my back at the age of 20. Please don't tell me that 2/3 of Americans did not have the opportunity to better themselves or have the means to acquire the necessary knowledge to make a good living. I am living proof that ANYONE CAN DO IT... however I guess the 2/3 rely on the "pre-manufactured" American way of living. I guess it's the Communist system's fault to have forged the notion of "you are what you own" in the deepest cells of my existence... thus becoming somewhat successful and being able to own my home.

I don't know where you're from, but I have several Vietnamese friends and one Cambodian friend who came on the boats as children, and had nothing when they got here. The Cambodian friend's father died on the boat. His mother worked hard to support him, and as he grew, that work ethic was instilled in him; and now he is very successful. The Vietnamese friends are also very successful business people and real estate investors.

I agree with you. Anyone who is willing to work hard can succeed at something.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Here is what happens when people predict the RE market from out of the state.

See Arizona Housing Market, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson, Yuma, Flagstaff

housingpredictor.com thinks that Phoenix will be down 7% in 2012.

Here is another "expert". See Phoenix Real Estate Market Again, they predict Phoenix will be down with a "85% probability".

Sites like these don't have a CLUE what is happening on the ground.

As of yesterday the price per square foot for Pending listings was $93.51. The charts show that as being the highest we've had since February 2009. It's also 21% higher than the low point reached in August 2011.

The Pending price per square foot tells us at what price a listing attracted an offer(s).

Although it does not tell us the Sold price, it does give us an indication of what Sold prices are likely to be within the next 2 months.

Mike Orr states that their prediction of an annual appreciation rate of at least 25% is still a good bet for August 20, 2012.

Now we have 4 predictions:

• Actinic ...................... Stay the Same
• Housing Predictor.......Down 7%
• Forecast Chart ......... Down (with 85% probability)
• Cromford Report ......Up 25% by August

My money is on the Cromford Report. What about you?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

As of yesterday the price per square foot for Pending listings was $93.51. The charts show that as being the highest we've had since February 2009. It's also 21% higher than the low point reached in August 2011.

The Pending price per square foot tells us at what price a listing attracted an offer(s).

Although it does not tell us the Sold price, it does give us an indication of what Sold prices are likely to be within the next 2 months.

Mike Orr states that their prediction of an annual appreciation rate of at least 25% is still a good bet for August 20, 2012.

Now we have 4 predictions:

• Actinic ...................... Stay the Same
• Housing Predictor.......Down 7%
• Forecast Chart ......... Down (with 85% probability)
• Cromford Report ......Up 25% by August

My money is on the Cromford Report. What about you?

I think actinic really had to bite his tongue just to predict no change. It is difficult when you are cheering for an outcome versus predicting on data.

[Steve Pickering]

Ya gotta make it on both ends in Real-Estate. I stand by what I said. Agents color the market. Don't believe the hype. A $200,000 home selling for $145,000 is not an improvement, it is only a gain.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Steve Pickering

Ya gotta make it on both ends in Real-Estate. I stand by what I said. Agents color the market. Don't believe the hype. A $200,000 home selling for $145,000 is not an improvement, it is only a gain.

In my world, if a home sells for $145K, it's a $145K home (not a $200K home).

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

In my world, if a home sells for $145K, it's a $145K home (not a $200K home).

Ya gotta admit though, that buying " a $300k home" for $70k is a rush.

But, those deals may be gone....

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Ya gotta admit though, that buying " a $300k home" for $70k is a rush.

But, those deals may be gone....

Ya gotta know that those incredible deal weren't going to last forever. I've been "hyping" the sense of urgency to buy before the rush. It seems that some people want to wait another lifetime until another (obvious) opportunity knocks again.

Coulda-woulda-shoulda!

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Ya gotta know that those incredible deal weren't going to last forever. I've been "hyping" the sense of urgency to buy before the rush. It seems that some people want to wait another lifetime until another (obvious) opportunity knocks again.

Coulda-woulda-shoulda!

Kind of like the people that were real casual about cheap rent a few years ago.....it was a unique, isolated occurrence. I've bought 8 homes over the years. I didn't start getting aggressive until my third one. I bought a probate, leftover, from the last recession for 50% off original. That was 1999. Meeting the neighbors is a lot more intense, when you paid 50% less. You know they will ask, or look it up. Stayed there a year and made a good profit. The last five have been twice as intense. Lowballing a Thai couple in their own language, may have been the highlight.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I think actinic really had to bite his tongue just to predict no change. It is difficult when you are cheering for an outcome versus predicting on data.

You got it wrong, I did the research. While many use statistical trends and historical info to contrive some future outcome, it's incomplete. The rules are constantly changing. Just how many of the so-called authorities predicted, with pain staking detail and volumes of facts, the timing, depth, and duration of the recession?

No, there's way too many uncertainties economically and politically at a time when the country is on precarious financial footing that could cause a cascade of events quickly and easily backsliding the country into another recession. Throw in some black swan event and who knows deep it could go? And through it all, guess which state is usually among the first to get hit and the last to recover? Hint: it's the 48th state.

Shall I go on? Europe is growing progressively worse, the poor domestic economic reports (and housing info) of late is making some question whether this is a pause in what has been, at best, a tepid recovery. Some are going so far to ask if this is the best it gets. Many are fast approaching the 99 week unemployment benefits limit, and let's not forget the long hot summer looming with the Democratic convention that brings out all the wackos, this happening at a time of great racial divide and a public who's become increasingly disenchanted with both candidates and parties plus the future direction of the country. Civil disobedience is rife.

Also, I see where the Supreme Court has decided to take up the AZ immigration law which no doubt will fuel more anti-Arizona fervor. Then you've got Arizona now having a higher unemployment rate than Michigan for goodness sakes, exposing AZ's weakness in manufacturing and good paying jobs.

Still only 4 predictions? Guess not many are confident with Phoenix. I'll hold off on more reasons for purposes of brevity. There's a ton of others.

edit: One thing else ... I find it amusing that some people are quick to dismiss my forecast yet fail to make their own predictions.

[whodiman]

i would say many aren't making predictions because they don't know not because they would argue one way or the other. What the facts are saying is the market is going crazy right now and has been for about 7 months. Will it continue? i have no idea. As mentioned it usually slows down starting in June to about December so maybe we will end up flat for the year but that also might depend on how much we go up from now until June too. Based on current supply and demand prices need to go up but that current supply and demand can change.

I really haven't given any information that hasn't already been mentioned but i feel pretty smart (lucky) that i bought when i did cause a 25% drop from here means I break even on price and that doesn't include all of the rent I have collected to this point. This is the investor model. We invest on cashflow rather than trying to time the market bottom and price speculate. Just by sheer percentages only a few can time the bottom. I don't like that game but i do like cashflowing. Something that is impossible to do in most other countries.