Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Tucson, Scottsdale: unemployment benefits, living, versus)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Again, I may not have expressed myself correctly, but you've mentioned "mentoring and training", and the biggest sharks in the re business tout thir "training" & "mentoring" as to why they should get the first 80% of a new agent's commissions. Those are the brokers getting wealthy off the agents work. Those are the brokers who sell "magic beans" to new agents, through their "super-secret-path-to-wealth" in re sales.
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Until you've taken some or all of the GRI classes, or the CRS classes, you're probably not going to understand what is learned in those classes.

And until you've spent a year working with a mentor you won't understand what the mentor can do for an agents career, and how it can save a client and the agent from being sued.

Even though I had been an investor in the 70's and had taken college courses in real estate, and had a good grounding, I still began to do more study even before I got my license after we moved to AZ.

When I got the license and started with Remax, there were two agents there who had a mentoring company. I elected to join their mentoring program, and the fee I had to pay them was 20% of my commissions for the year. It was well worth the fee. Each day I would learn something that would continuously prove to me that "I can't know what I don't know".

I recall that I was close to losing a transaction where my buyer was ready to sign a purchase contract. We were having a disagreement over something in the contract, and I was ready to drop the client.

A phone call to my mentor saved that transaction for me. That one call, by saving the transaction, actually paid for all my training with this mentor. Had I not had the mentor I would have lost that transaction.

They held weekly classes for the 8-10 new agents they would work with at one time. You could shadow the mentor, (one agent at a time could go on a listing presentation with them to observe). They would go and observe you on some of your listing or buyer presentations. They were available at all times to answer any questions. They provided us with a cd and printed book of tons of contract clauses to fit almost any situation needing additional written terms. It is not a brokers job to provide that type of information. One either gets it from a mentor, or spends years collecting it after making many errors; or never gets it.

We had to take our transaction paperwork to them to review for errors before turning it in to the broker. That way they could not only have us correct it before turning in to the broker, but they would provide explanations that would give us further insight. The training with those mentors was invaluable.

The 9-page contract is probably one of the most misunderstood of all the RE documents. After passing the state exam I recall the required Contract Boot Camp that followed, where the instructor told us to read that contract every day for a full year, and then we should have a good understanding of it. I did that.

Then in one of the GRI classes, there was a full 2-day class on the contract, and there were still things in that class I learned about the contract that I had missed in my studies.

At my desk I keep a copy of Michelle Lind's book, Arizona Real Estate, A Professional's Guide to Law and Practice, alongside the brokers required law reference, Arizona Real Estate Law Book, and constantly refer to it. (Michelle's book is an education in itself)

Mentors are usually not the brokers. Usually they are highly experienced and successful agents who have mastered the business and have the skills and desire to teach others. Just like any other teacher, they expect and deserve to be paid.

Except under special circumstances I will never mentor an agent. I will only hire good experienced agents. The exception may be if my assistant gets a license and works for me as a licensed assistant, then I will mentor that person so s/he can gradually become productive as an agent while making a living as a licensed assistant. Once s/he can make a living as an agent, then I would hire a new assistant.

When I got my brokers license I hired a broker mentor. He is a very successful broker in Scottsdale and also teaches at the Arizona School of Real Estate. I paid him a flat fee for a number of hours of mentoring. In addition to all of the advice, he provided me with a flash drive that had his Company Office Policy, Independent Contractor Agreement, and many other forms, spreadsheets etc., that would have cost me several thousand dollars to compile on my own. All I had to do was edit them to reflect the differences for my company.

[modhatter]

Capt Bill. I think arguing with people who have negative feelings about real estate agents is a lost cause. It's like a Democrat trying to convince a Republican to join their side. There will always be a sector of people who distrust any salesperson. To a degree, it's understandable.

Few, however know the amount of work that goes into being a good agent.
Few, can distinguish a Realtor who always acts in a professional informed manner from Joe Blow. It is a pity that obtaining a license is as easy as it is, as this does lend itself to some unsavory and uninformed people entering the profession, and thus giving a bad name to the rest. Most people would be served best by only hiring a realtor who came highly recommended to them from a known source. It is a way of separating the good from the bad.

I know some wonderful agents in Florida, and they stay very busy by all the thankful people who recommend them when ever they can, and are wonderful people.

Don't take it personally. Also, thank you for posting your web site with access to the most current listings. It has been helpful, and when I sell my home in Phoenix, I will probably give you a call.

[Kimballette]

Feel free to start a new thread in another forum about the reputation of the real estate profession. This thread is specifically about the Phoenix real estate market.

[Howard Roark]

You only say that because you lack information that it is possible renting is better than owning for certain individuals.

I get a big tax break, several times the mortgage interest deduction by working in a new place every 12 months and it has to be outside the place of my primary residence. Moreover, the tax break goes away if I sublet. Phoenix is my base address because I find the airport has the best flying weather (arrival or departure) of all airports west of Missouri. It also means one less hour on flying to the east coast than if I flew from Los Angeles.

My apartment complex in SE Phoenix was a great find and I've been renting it for over six years. Less than 15 minutes to the airport and no neighbors in back. It tends to be quiet and management wants to keep it that way for long time residents who prefer quiet.

There is nothing wrong with not having a house. I can cash out my gold and government securities this week and buy two of those $250,000 houses you mention and have change left over for a Lexus. But why do I want all that extra space? And you can only sleep under one roof at a time and drive one car at a time.

Originally Posted by matyoka

I am not going to get deep into this as I don't want any controversy, however if you can't afford a $250k mortgage than something is wrong. I migrated to the US 22 years ago, put myself through college while working my rear off... sometimes 3 jobs. If I can afford it why can't others?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Kimballette

Feel free to start a new thread in another forum about the reputation of the real estate profession. This thread is specifically about the Phoenix real estate market.

Kimballette, it looks like I was writing the post while you were making this one. Sorry about that.

Please allow me to make one last comment.

And that is that I respect Zippyman's opinions, and my responses were to educate, not to be argumentative. He holds a real estate license which he uses mostly for personal use; does have some knowledge of the industry, and does recognize, as I do, that there are some bad apples in the business. Our only significantly different point of view is on the need for education.

Back to the Phoenix Real Estate Market:

• In March the average sales price per square foot increased by almost 7%.
• April is still increasing but the rate of increase has slowed down to around 4%.

Mike Orr said "...the increased pricing is bringing out a few more traditional sellers, so the number of active listings is showing a little more stability instead of falling like a rock."

I think that can be good for buyers looking for homes in the <$300k range.

In my primary area I'm seeing a few more traditional listings come out, and if they're priced at the market, they're also selling pretty fast.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Here is what happens when people predict the RE market from out of the state.

See Arizona Housing Market, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson, Yuma, Flagstaff

housingpredictor.com thinks that Phoenix will be down 7% in 2012.

Here is another "expert". See Phoenix Real Estate Market Again, they predict Phoenix will be down with a "85% probability".

Sites like these don't have a CLUE what is happening on the ground.

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by matyoka

I am not going to get deep into this as I don't want any controversy, however if you can't afford a $250k mortgage than something is wrong. I migrated to the US 22 years ago, put myself through college while working my rear off... sometimes 3 jobs. If I can afford it why can't others?

That's about the silliest thing since John McCain said they would have to pay Americans 50 Per hour to pick lettuce. 2/3 of American households would have a difficult time coming up with 2000 Dollars in an emergency. For quite a few, the reason being they made the mistake of getting a large mortgage.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Here is what happens when people predict the RE market from out of the state.

See Arizona Housing Market, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson, Yuma, Flagstaff

housingpredictor.com thinks that Phoenix will be down 7% in 2012.

Here is another "expert". See Phoenix Real Estate Market Again, they predict Phoenix will be down with a "85% probability".

Sites like these don't have a CLUE what is happening on the ground.

I wonder what they base this 3 year forecast on?

The forecast for the trend in the Phoenix housing market for the 3 years ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN.

• Our delinquency rate has declined
• NOTS have declined
• Trustee sales have declined
• Inventory has declined
• Sales have increased
• Prices have increased

What am I missing?

Home Price appreciation rates for Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ are shown above for five time periods. For example: Phoenix appreciated 2.22% in the Last Quarter.

At the beginning of the article they say the data is for the "3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics".

So they are missing the fact that the price appreciation from the end of the 3rd quarter to today is a 16% increase, and increasing.

In order to meet their forecast of prices declining by the 3rd quarter of 2014, something drastic has to happen to the Phoenix market, or the world economy.

Maybe someone smarter than me can tell me what I'm missing.

[matyoka]

Howard,

Why should I pay rent and contribute to someone else's wealth when for the same monthly payments I can own my house? We come from two different worlds my friend and there is nothing wrong with it.

[matyoka]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

2/3 of American households would have a difficult time coming up with 2000 Dollars in an emergency. For quite a few, the reason being they made the mistake of getting a large mortgage.

I knew it's going to come down to this... however I believe in expressing my opinions freely so I guess I was asking for it.

Again, I arrived to JFK as a refugee with a suitcase and the cloths on my back at the age of 20. Please don't tell me that 2/3 of Americans did not have the opportunity to better themselves or have the means to acquire the necessary knowledge to make a good living. I am living proof that ANYONE CAN DO IT... however I guess the 2/3 rely on the "pre-manufactured" American way of living. I guess it's the Communist system's fault to have forged the notion of "you are what you own" in the deepest cells of my existence... thus becoming somewhat successful and being able to own my home.