Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Chandler, Gilbert: calculation, cost, military)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

As a fair and balanced Arizona-based viewpoint you will have to go off-site to The Housing Bubble Blog

Howard. I remember reading a post of yours that you were keeping your eye on a few houses that you were fond of. What's happening to those values? Did you miss your window of opportunity to snatch it up at the lowest possible price?

[Captain Bill]

The single family Active listings (excluding AWC) has declined to 7,707. Mike Orr said that is the lowest they have been since 2005.

The same listings priced =<$150k has declined to 1,161 from 2,221 in January.

Below are two charts, courtesy of the Cromford Report.

• One shows single family Inventory by Price Range. Notice that everything below $600k is below a 5 month supply.
  .
• The other shows all types residences, with overall inventory declining to a 2.7 month supply. And as stated above, the huge decline was in the <$150k range.

I'm considering placing some of the Cromford Report Interactive charts on my web site. With the interactive charts one can select the information that each chart shows, such as traditional sales, price range, city, zip code, etc. They are really neat charts.

However, they have asked me to not place them on a publicly accessible page because people who should be paying for a subscription would have access to them. The Cromford Reports intention is to allow their subscribers to share the information with their clients, prospects, and other people they know, who are interested in the RE market.

In order to comply with their request, I will be placing them on a page that is only available to those to whom I give the url. Anyone who is not a Realtor wishing to have the url can send me a DM.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

As a fair and balanced Arizona-based viewpoint you will have to go off-site to The Housing Bubble Blog

Here's another "off-site" fair and balanced Arizona-based viewpoint - from USA Today which was printed Feb 28.
Signs of upturn in Phoenix's long-suffering housing market

Here area a couple of snippets from the article:

...National data watchers have also seen improvements in Phoenix. In October and November, it was the only one of 20 major cities to see home values rise month-to-month, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index, which reports December results today.

Phoenix "is probably the best example we have right now of a hard-hit market that's showing signs of recovery," says Zillow economist Stan Humphries....

...Arizona's relatively fast foreclosure process is also helping to clear inventories of distressed homes...

...In judicial foreclosure states, foreclosures have taken longer to complete. New rules since 2010 to ensure that foreclosures are done properly have extended time frames even more.

In Phoenix, it would take about 20 months — half the national average — to liquidate all homes currently in foreclosure or more than 90 days delinquent on loans, based on current foreclosure sales rates, says mortgage tracker LPS Applied Analytics...

[Captain Bill]

Another "off site" fair and unbalanced article for Howard

Phoenix growth in health & education jobs among fastest in nation

And another...

http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...nerstones.html

[Howard Roark]

According to Zillow, they were bought in the $200,000 range. However that is not to say any of the group will not be up for sale in the next few years. I have seen some in that area bought, then put up for sale in the follow g year, but not enough to recover the broker costs. These people guessed another RE boom like 2004 was imminent I suppose. That ain't going to happen for decades. I also have my eyes set on north Scottsdale in the $400,000 range. The ones in my area are just large two story boxes. But the $200k ones near me are all one story and have character, more than stucco boxes.

Still, I am better off renting small as I travel for work. To buy a house means I am working where I buy. Jobs are not great for now and my type of work in Phoenix is going to have severe effects from the additional defense budget cuts. So I am better off being mobile and go where the money is.

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Howard. I remember reading a post of yours that you were keeping your eye on a few houses that you were fond of. What's happening to those values? Did you miss your window of opportunity to snatch it up at the lowest possible price?

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

As a fair and balanced Arizona-based viewpoint you will have to go off-site to The Housing Bubble Blog

I started reading it in 2006. [off topic]

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

I started reading it in 2006.

[mod cut-- response to deleted part of post]

How did you time the bubble? I suppose you have bought back into the market in Phoenix meanwhile?

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

How did you time the bubble? I suppose you have bought back into the market in Phoenix meanwhile?

[mod cut-- reference to deleted material] I was planning on paying 50k cash for a good condo in a good area, but the wheels really came off the cart. I bought a condo in Summerlin for 35K, sold it for 55K, and with the proceeds, bought a TH in 85021 for 22K, which I considered at 119K in 2005, and at the end of 2010 bought a sfr in 85014 for 18,500 that is walkable to the Light Rail.

I'm going to sell this house and buy another TH by the other one, [mod cut-- off topic]
As far as timing the market, there were a couple of things going on. I watched the whole internet bubble, and saw the previously mentioned shills on CNBC. Having worked here personally, I was well aware of the wage situation and the writing was on the wall. A lot of ratios were way out of whack......a 400K mortgage on a 50K income.....paying 400K for a house that would only rent for 1250.....and my all time favorite: Zero Down!

[pandaundercover]

Question! How much is the average seller fees, broker fees, whatever fees, when selling a house with someone who provides discounted services for the military?? For instance, we bought our house a lil more than a year ago for $110k (total loan of 112k), and there is 107k on it so far. The estimated value of the house has gone up to $120k now. If we sold it for $120k, how much in fees would we lose (likely)? And then the difference is ours to walk away with it, right? I'm trying to understand how much we could realistically gain by selling our house at certain values. I did find a calculator program that processes it for me, but it does it as normal fee ranges (I'm assuming it is significantly less for the military), and that the more you sell the house for, the less the fees are (in which case, i couldn't figure out why this is, but I assume there's typically a set rate amount).

[ReadyFreddy]

I always figure selling a house is going to cost 8-10%. I've never heard of military discounts but I suspect they're not significant. So if you sold it now for $120k you'd probably not do much better than breaking even, especially since buying another house isn't fee-less, either.