Breaking News: Phoenix home prices up 32% in past year (Scottsdale: rental, refinancing)

[actinic]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

No worries. You can buy from the "investors" a year or two down the road at a considerable discount after they've lost their shorts.

Yep, leave it to AZ to remain the flip capital of the US. The sharp increase in sales & prices will be commensurately met by decline to the same degree. The state has yet to learn its lesson about the benefits of a diversified employment base and the downside of placing too much of its dubious laurels on climate and as a retirement destination.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by actinic

Yep, leave it to AZ to remain the flip capital of the US. The sharp increase in sales & prices will be commensurately met by decline to the same degree...

I'm always interested in seeing information to support a projection. What data do you have that shows a decline of the same degree, and when will it happen?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

During the summer months, sales usually show and inventory increases. Because of the recent price increases, more people are willing to place their homes on the market. According to the Cromford Report the areas having the greatest price increases are showing the greatest inventory increase. This may provide some relief for those looking to buy a home.

Below are some cities the Cromford Report shows as having higher increases in inventory. What I'm seeing in my Val Vista Lakes community of 2000 homes are increased listings in various price ranges.


12-Mo Change in Mo/ Avg $/SF ........Active (excluding AWC)..... Supply Change Last 2 Mo
Avondale.......... 22% ...................................105............ .......................... 78%
Tempe............. 17% .................................. 141...................................... 34%
Queen Creek..... 33%................................... 440...................................... 33%
Maricopa........... 34%.................................. 198....................................... 33%
Coolidge........... 21%................................... 30........................................ 30%
Gilbert............. 16%................................... 415....................................... 29%
Florence........... 74%.................................... 99....................................... 25%
Arizona City...... 25%................................... 43........................................ 23%
Apache Junction. 31%.................................. 108....................................... 16%

Below are some cities from the Cromford Report that are still seeing increases in pricing and declines in inventory:

12-Mo Change in Mo/ Avg $/SF ........Active (excluding AWC)..... Supply Change Last 2 Mo
Gold Canyon..... 20%.................................. 105....................................... - 30%
Scottsdale.........15%............................ ..... 1,274.......................................-11%
Paradise Valley...8%.....................................22 3........................................-13%
Fountain Hills....-4%.....................................150........ ................................-8%
Cave Creek....... 3%.................................... 138........................................ -7%

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Below are some cities from the Cromford Report that are still seeing increases in pricing and declines in inventory:

12-Mo Change in Mo/ Avg $/SF ........Active (excluding AWC)..... Supply Change Last 2 Mo
Gold Canyon..... 20%.................................. 105....................................... - 30%
Scottsdale.........15%............................ ..... 1,274.......................................-11%
Paradise Valley...8%.....................................22 3........................................-13%
Fountain Hills....-4%.....................................150........ ................................-8%
Cave Creek....... 3%.................................... 138........................................ -7%

Bill, could you post up info from the far west valley like Waddell,Surprise area?
Thanks mucho.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by actinic

Yep, leave it to AZ to remain the flip capital of the US. The sharp increase in sales & prices will be commensurately met by decline to the same degree. The state has yet to learn its lesson about the benefits of a diversified employment base and the downside of placing too much of its dubious laurels on climate and as a retirement destination.

You know, when I see predictions such as this the first thing that pops into my mind is Johnny Carson (aka Karnac) with his turban on holding an envelope to his head predicting it's contents.

[Sunni2012]

some of this House purchasing makes me wonder, IF buying a new build house in growing areas like Gilbert or Chandler is a good investment ?? ie will the house increase in value and be profitable in a few years to sell ?

maybe Captain Bill can reflect....

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jimj

Bill, could you post up info from the far west valley like Waddell,Surprise area?
Thanks mucho.

Surprise was not in their list, but Wadell is:

Waddell....... 21% ........39........ -13%

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Sunni2012

some of this House purchasing makes me wonder, IF buying a new build house in growing areas like Gilbert or Chandler is a good investment ?? ie will the house increase in value and be profitable in a few years to sell ?

maybe Captain Bill can reflect....

This is not investment advice; it's only a personal opinion.
I would not buy a new build expecting a gain within a few years. One is paying top dollar for all the additional amenities, plus the draperies, rear yard, etc so the price adds up. If I were buying a new build it would be strictly for the purpose of having my choice of floor plan that we would enjoy for 10+years, and hope that the price would keep up with inflation.

If I were to buy a home expecting to make a profit on a sale I would buy a home at a discount to market that needs updating and repairs. I would make those updates and repairs as I lived in the home so as to increase the value. Since one cannot recover the actual cost of the updates, the home has to be purchased at a market discount in order to make a profit over a few years; assuming the market increases.

Our primary residences have always been about living in them; not an investment. We were in the first one for 7 years; the second for 34 years, and have been in our current home for 8 years. We were fortunate in that the first two homes appreciated considerably, but the current home value is still slightly less than what we paid.

My opinion is to treat the primary residence as a residence only, and if one wants an investment property, buy a separate house as a rental, even if the cash flow doesn't quite cover the mortgage, it will have a tax write off, plus the appreciation over time.

[Sunni2012]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

This is not investment advice; it's only a personal opinion.
I would not buy a new build expecting a gain within a few years. One is paying top dollar for all the additional amenities, plus the draperies, rear yard, etc so the price adds up. If I were buying a new build it would be strictly for the purpose of having my choice of floor plan that we would enjoy for 10+years, and hope that the price would keep up with inflation.

If I were to buy a home expecting to make a profit on a sale I would buy a home at a discount to market that needs updating and repairs. I would make those updates and repairs as I lived in the home so as to increase the value. Since one cannot recover the actual cost of the updates, the home has to be purchased at a market discount in order to make a profit over a few years; assuming the market increases.

Our primary residences have always been about living in them; not an investment. We were in the first one for 7 years; the second for 34 years, and have been in our current home for 8 years. We were fortunate in that the first two homes appreciated considerably, but the current home value is still slightly less than what we paid.

My opinion is to treat the primary residence as a residence only, and if one wants an investment property, buy a separate house as a rental, even if the cash flow doesn't quite cover the mortgage, it will have a tax write off, plus the appreciation over time.

great advice- thank you

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Surprise was not in their list, but Wadell is:

Waddell....... 21% ........39........ -13%

Nice! Thank you sir.