Recent Michael Orr/W.P. Carey Real Estate Update (Phoenix: 2013, foreclosure)

[ZonaDude]

Michael Orr, the preeminent real estate expert in Phoenix, recently held a presentation on the state of local real estate. Spoiler alert; it's hot. Really interesting and worth the time to see the video. This is from John Wake's blog, another great source for local real estate commentary. Enjoy.

The Phoenix Housing Market Explained - Arizona Real Estate Notebook

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by ZonaDude

Michael Orr, the preeminent real estate expert in Phoenix, recently held a presentation on the state of local real estate. Spoiler alert; it's hot. Really interesting and worth the time to see the video. This is from John Wake's blog, another great source for local real estate commentary. Enjoy.

The Phoenix Housing Market Explained - Arizona Real Estate Notebook

Thanks for sharing! I watched the whole 2 hour link. Pretty interesting stuff.

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Thanks for sharing! I watched the whole 2 hour link. Pretty interesting stuff.

How did you do that...the video shows it's only 1:24:46 long.

[Potential_Landlord]

Same here- thanks for sharing. Phoenix RE is the new gold (after the old one crashed and is done for) ;-)

[dualforecast]

I watched it. I couldn't hear many of the audience questions. Obviously, the first guy is toeing the Liberal line. Interupting Mike Orr about the Labor situation. [ mod cut -- off topic] Exactly what highly skilled people are there a shortage of? Didn't Pulte replace carpenters with staple guns 20 years ago? I also thought that they were clearly aligned with sprawl growth, and the developers. Same with Reagor.

[kremit]

Tenants will all of a sudden will say " I want a to buy a home?" ummm no. Homes in the 500K+ range are appreciating... you mean the people with all the money are gaining more value in their homes? no really? lol.

I'd be curious to know what their thoughts are about the new bubble Obama is wanting to create.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

How did you do that...the video shows it's only 1:24:46 long.

I also watched it backwards for hidden satanic messaging. At the 1 hour mark, it said "Paul is dead"!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by dualforecast

I watched it. I couldn't hear many of the audience questions. Obviously, the first guy is toeing the Liberal line. Interupting Mike Orr about the Labor situation. What a bunch of baloney. [mod cut- off topic] Exactly what highly skilled people are there a shortage of? Didn't Pulte replace carpenters with staple guns 20 years ago? I also thought that they were clearly aligned with sprawl growth, and the developers. Same with Reagor.

No need to jump to conclusions. While the 1st guy could be a Liberal, I suspect he was back peddling because he wanted to be politically correct as well as accurate. If you work for someone, you too have to be politically correct especially when you are on camera. The reality is many builders went out of business and hundreds of construction workers left the state including white workers. I personally know some white guys and multimillion dollar builders who fit that profile.

In the video this supposed "Liberal" debunked the water shortage statements. He also didn't lecture how to solve the sprawl. He simply said the land buying patterns suggested another $2M people are coming before 2040. If you are correct and he liked sprawl, does that sound "Liberal" to you?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by kremit

Tenants will all of a sudden will say " I want a to buy a home?" ummm no.... .

20% of the entire Valley is re-renting after letting their homes go. As Mike pointed out, some of them are renting back their exact house that they let go. When their credit heals, they want to get back in and own. It's obvious.

Originally Posted by kremit

I'd be curious to know what their thoughts are about the new bubble Obama is wanting to create.

Then watch the video because they answered it. Currently, there is no bubble. Most "investors" own their homes outright or have a lot of skin in the game which is MUCH different than in 2005. Also credit is much tighter so it's not a "bubble"; it's called supply and demand. If the government loosens up the lending standards again, THAT is when the bubble will re-occur. Excluding "bubbles", they do predict the market to overheat again because housing is cyclical.

The reality is housing is a big chunk of the economy. A major owner of the homes in the federal government (they bought trillions of bad notes). So it is logical for the policy makers to do everything in their power to see a certain level of appreciation so people are not upside down and they get their $$'s back. It was a smart move. While I voted for Romney give Obama props for a policy that worked. I bet on this HOUSING recovery happening. As Mike Orr accurately explained, there is a 1.5 year lag. People make money in RE by seeing trends that others refuse to see.

[dualforecast]

correct MN, no expansion in credit=no bubble. A huge factor in our recovery has been us being a non-judicial foreclosure state, and a pretty darn fast one at that. Remember when Romney got crucified for being quoted as saying "just let it hit bottom"? That's what I would have preferred, and I think the big drops in gold, would have come three years ago. Cash for clunkers, and FTHBC.....both created pimples on ski slopes, at a tremendous cost. But back to the video, they down play infill because of economies of scale (lack thereof), and expensive land......there are many, many lots downtown and midtown and relative to any other major city (on the planet) are still very cheap. Job centers in the exhurbs? that's a large assumption. But, yes, the builders are greedy sobs, and like to keep the land cost closer to 10K, than 100K. And what about vertical growth? Plenty of vacant lots where you could build a whole connected walkway thing like MPLS, that could house hundreds of thousands...it would make a lot of sense for the extreme weather. Hong Kong has a population of 7 million, and it is very close to the size of Phoenix at 426 square miles, yet only 25% of it's land is developed.