Experts predicting 25%+ increases in new home construction (Phoenix, Glendale: new house, buy)

[Burning Madolf]

I was getting concerned because it's been a long time since Aut360 started one of these housing shortage threads.

In the future they should be in all caps and have sirens. You know, for emphasis.

[asufan]

The new home communities are still sprouting up quickly in my area in South Chandler, but since Chandler is nearing build out we're seeing smaller 90 lot subdivision type properties. Since this area has so much employment with Intel, Orbital, Microchip, Wells Fargo, etc. we see a lot of people moving to this area and its not far from employment so the builders are selling pretty quickly. Only thing tempering the excitement is the recent bump in rates so its normal activity not the frenzy. I think we'll see that growth in new housing if the economy continues to create jobs. It may be localized growth wherever the jobs are going.

[KurtAZ]

And to piggyback on the Chandler view of this...they are doing some infill finally. There is a development right around the corner from us with just 8 lots for example. Looks like they are buying the farmland over on Queen Creek and Arizona for some development now that Hamilton Heights is sold out as well. Some new apartments going up at Dobson and Germann. Now they just need to turn our Fry's into a Marketplace

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

hyperbole.. most new developments are 30+ miles from center-city & start out at 2x the msa median home values.. to get growth in that situation you would need a massive influx of buyers earning double the current median family income, willing to live in the middle of nowhere & paying massively for the priviledge of doing so. A few will sell, - there is a sucker born every minute- but not nearly enough suckers are being born to create that kind of growth..

All across the county, suburbs are born and they grow. 30+ miles away from the city center isn't anything new. I will spend 6 months a year in Phoenix. I predict I might visit the downtown once or twice. Same drill here in MN, I was 25 miles from MPLS (and now 120 miles away). Again, 1-2 times a year was more than enough when I was much closer. I am not alone. So finding work isn't the problem for many. Maybe peoples options are limited if their expertise is semiconductor back-end metallurgy especially focused on non volatile magnetic memories (like it was for me in the late 80's and early 90's). If so, then buy in Chandler. I suspect that materials engineer cannot grasp what the 120,000 people do for a living in Surprise. I can.

Being more central obviously has it's advantages (as well as it's disadvantages). I could have bought in any area that I wanted and I have always preferred newer areas. So while you may assume that I am a "sucker born", there are a lot of people like me who don't want to live in a brick one level generic rambler. As a reminder, this "sucker" is up $120K from what I paid in early 2011. People like me put a priority on the new look as HXguy's pictures have proved. You cannot get that look and feel in central Phoenix shy of bulldozing down blocks and starting over.

So while Surprise is "in the middle of nowhere". Maybe so for some. But not so much for the majority of the 118,000 people who live there. There are 226,000 people in Glendale, 208,000 in Gilbert, and a 155,000 in Peoria. Hence, there are multi thousands of jobs in these areas to fill the businesses that support the infrastructure. Don't forget about the growing amont of people like me who commute to their home office every day. I could do what I do in Mexico.

Mike Orr of the Cromford report had a video online talking about where builders are buying land and what it was going to look like x amount of years. He envisioned several mini-city centers scatter across the (even more) massive valley. Land developers are purchasing beyond the white tanks and north of Anthem. I'm not sure if I agree with the speed of the projected growth. But I am a firm believer of massive growth in the far outer burbs. I also anticipate mini city centers as Mr. Orr proposed.

[autism360]

According to a recent Careerbuilder report Phoenix ranks in the top 3 states for job growth and top 5 metro city areas, the only areas that are close in projected job growth over the next 4 years are Texas,and Raleigh NC.

So since there will be a huge amount of jobs created over the next 3 years the infrastructure to house these new residents in addition to boomerang buyers who lost homes who now are able to buy homes again, young adults that are tired of living with parents,illegals who will soon be legal wanting to buy homes, boomers from cold climate states and Canada wanting to relocate here or purchase second homes.

So my question for anyone that wants to consider the facts is where will we be housing the million + people moving here over the next 10 years and what will keep our state from experiencing rolling housing shortages for the forseeable future? I see higher rents and home prices going forward.

CareerBuilder outlook forecasts stronger job growth, new opportunities | abc11.com

[shiphead]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

they arent coming - they saw an article on Yahoo that said Austin, Texas was better than Phoenix & decided to go there instead.

My family would never live in Texas. We would go to California before Texas any day of the week. On another note. Personally I want to see places like Tempe start building density. Start utilizing south Tempe for the adult crowd. The Tempe city rep said people wanted something like kierland in south Tempe. Walkable, kid friendly neighborhood? Sounds dreamy to me.

[autism360]

The amount of homes being built matches the volume built in 1963 a 50 year low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What’s needed to spur stronger growth in the housing market is a marked increase in inventory through stepped-up new construction, because only more new homes will ease tight inventories and, in turn, help slow home price gains, helping affordability. Last year only about 900,000 homes were started, a 50-year low and half the amount that’s needed, Yun said.

NAR: Price Gains, Not Sales, to Drive Housing Growth | Realtor Magazine

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by autism360

The amount of homes being built matches the volume built in 1963 a 50 year low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NAR: Price Gains, Not Sales, to Drive Housing Growth | Realtor Magazine

Seriously? Lawrence Yun? That guy is a contra-indicator (that's the nicest thing I'd say).

[autism360]

Seriously? Lawrence Yun? That guy is a contra-indicator (that's the nicest thing I'd say).

Last year only about 900,000 homes were started, a 50-year low


I am not understanding your point he is quoting AN EASILY VERIFIABLE STATISTIC?

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by autism360

Last year only about 900,000 homes were started, a 50-year low


I am not understanding your point he is quoting AN EASILY VERIFIABLE STATISTIC?

Of course you aren't understanding, you claim there is a housing shortage. Here is the whole statement:

"Last year only about 900,000 homes were started, a 50-year low and half the amount that’s needed, Yun said."

Half the amount needed? Says Yun, a guy who only keeps his job because he is a pump monkey. If anyone is dumb enough to follow anything this tool says, they deserve to lose money in real estate.

Yun is the guy who in 2008 said lending was too strict, buying was pent up and we were near a bottom (on may different occasions). The guy is an embarrassment to professional Realtors.