Experts predicting 25%+ increases in new home construction (Phoenix, Scottsdale: for sale, 2014)

[autism360]

Since we are only building 14-25,000 homes per year over the next 3 years and pre-boom amount of new homes built was closer to 35,000 a year I predict rolling housing shortages for the forseeable future in the Phoenix area.


read more: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...#ixzz2ju8mmK7w


Forecast: Phoenix Housing Market Could Outpace Most Metros in 2014

[new2colo]

Excuse my ignorance, but why would a 25 percent increase in new home building over the next three years result in a housing shortage? Sure, pre-boom levels were at 35,000 homes/year, but this area isn't growing nearly as quickly as it was in pre-boom times. Nor are people buying at the rate they were in pre-boom levels. Also, from personal observation, there seems to be a significant number of homes that were built in 2006 and 2007 that were never moved into and a number of older homes available for sale. Lastly, the article states that Phoenix is expected to become the 4th largest city or higher in 6 years. Not happening. We're certainly not going to pass Houston and to think that we're passing Chicago anytime soon is laughable. Maybe we'll be the 4th largest in 50 or 60 years, but by 2020? No. This article just doesn't seem very reputable.

[autism360]

I deal in facts

fact: before the boom an average amount of homes being built per year was 35,000
over 100,000 people per year are expected to move here
over the last 7 years very few homes have been built and the projected amount of homes to be built are far below the normal 35,000
you have boomerang buyers who lost homes who want to buy homes, young adults that are tired of living with parents,illegals who will soon be legal wanting to buy homes, boomers from cold climate states and Canada wanting to relocate here or purchase second homes.
a normal housing inventory is 30-40,000 homes it is only around currently around 25,000
To me the numbers add up to rolling shortages......................................... ................

[Zippyman]

hyperbole.. most new developments are 30+ miles from center-city & start out at 2x the msa median home values.. to get growth in that situation you would need a massive influx of buyers earning double the current median family income, willing to live in the middle of nowhere & paying massively for the priviledge of doing so. A few will sell, - there is a sucker born every minute- but not nearly enough suckers are being born to create that kind of growth..

[autism360]

So where are 1,000,000 people moving here over the next 10 years supposed to live?

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

hyperbole.. most new developments are 30+ miles from center-city & start out at 2x the msa median home values.. to get growth in that situation you would need a massive influx of buyers earning double the current median family income, willing to live in the middle of nowhere & paying massively for the priviledge of doing so. A few will sell, - there is a sucker born every minute- but not nearly enough suckers are being born to create that kind of growth..

l would say quite a bit more than a "few" are selling judging by how many homes are being built. Our new home subdivision sold out months ago as did the one across the street, they are now getting more land ready and just started selling again this past weekend. There are other new neighborhoods near by and construction looks like it's booming even at prices that I think are too high.

And 30 miles from center city is hardly in the middle of nowhere. That's North Scottsdale, North Peoria etc.

[vince3vince]

Originally Posted by autism360

So where are 1,000,000 people moving here over the next 10 years supposed to live?

They can have my house. I plan to sell before then.

[vince3vince]

It would be great to see some new luxury development in the remaining and highly valuable untouched land south of Pinnacle Peak in Scottsdale. All 4 corners of Hayden and the 101 would be prime and the plot of desert from 56th st to Scottsdale Rd just north of the 101... then finally there would be a use for that 64th st bridge to no where. Maybe One Scottsdale would actually resume. And that land in Paradise Valley from Lincoln blvd to Indian bend and Scottsdale Road to Mocking bird, which is probably the most valuable untouched land that is left in the entire valley get some real nice mansions and the Ritz Carlton like it was planned years ago. Probably won't happen, which is good, save the land for high end use in the future. But these kind of projects would be more desirable for me than massive entry level homes construction/fill on the far westside between Surprise and Goodyear or anything in Queen Creek/ pinal county.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

l would say quite a bit more than a "few" are selling judging by how many homes are being built. Our new home subdivision sold out months ago as did the one across the street, they are now getting more land ready and just started selling again this past weekend. There are other new neighborhoods near by and construction looks like it's booming even at prices that I think are too high.

And 30 miles from center city is hardly in the middle of nowhere. That's North Scottsdale, North Peoria etc.

14,000 permits in one year -( in an msa with 4.5 million people) - is a nothingburger served with white rice & water in the calorie count of life.. it isn't a "glorious recovery", it's a few very wealthy (by phoenix standards) people getting what they want in tough economic times..

we will have to disagree about 30+ miles out being the middle of nowhere - if you're fortunate enough to have a job in the hinterlands so you don't have to commute, that's great for you - but the 101, 202, 10,17 & 60 are all pretty-much locked-up coming into the city at 8 am & locked-up leaving the city at 5pm - adding more people to the end of those lines two-by-two isn't a sustainable model for massive growth..

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by autism360

So where are 1,000,000 people moving here over the next 10 years supposed to live?

they arent coming - they saw an article on Yahoo that said Austin, Texas was better than Phoenix & decided to go there instead.