Definitely a localization in housing downturn (Phoenix, Mesa: for sale, apartments, condos)

[az1969]

In my neighbourhood - Dobson Ranch Mesa it seems to me that house prices have only marginally decreased. I bought in October 2005 just before the height but what I see on the market locally in my area (not that much) is still selling for about the same. Right now it seems that the places which are getting hit badly are those where people went as far out as possible to get as much as they could. "Central" areas like mine where it's 30 - 45 mins to Scottsdale, Tempe and Phoenix where the good jobs are seem to be holding up. Anyone sense the same thing?

[exit2lef]

I agree. What I see in established areas is not so much a price decrease, but homes staying on the market longer before selling. It could be that some sellers in outlying areas are more likely to have sub-prime mortgages, shaky credit, and other issues that make it important for them to sell right away, even at a greatly reduced price.

[jco]

I agree that wherever resale homes don't have to compete with spec housing from new homebuilders, the market seems to have bottomed out.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Do you see a difference also in established areas that people aren't trying to flee those neighborhoods? Why would you sell if you are established in the area, kids in school, a carreer that you like, and a home that you can comfortably afford? My thought is that people that live in a area because they can't afford anthing else may not have bought because they have a love for the area. They may have done it because they saw homes increasing in value at a break kneck speed and decided that they would jump in at any cost just to build a little equity. That way they could sell at a later date and move to there desired location. My thoughts on that anyway.

I know that there are some here that think that Surprise is too far away also. That is a place though that I saw for the first time nearly 5 years ago and just wanted to be a part of the landscape. I love the Sriprise area. That is one reason that we bought a home there. For me the commute shouldn't be to bad because I am in the healthcare field, and they have some great facilities in the area.

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by az1969

In my neighbourhood - Dobson Ranch Mesa it seems to me that house prices have only marginally decreased. I bought in October 2005 just before the height but what I see on the market locally in my area (not that much) is still selling for about the same. Right now it seems that the places which are getting hit badly are those where people went as far out as possible to get as much as they could. "Central" areas like mine where it's 30 - 45 mins to Scottsdale, Tempe and Phoenix where the good jobs are seem to be holding up. Anyone sense the same thing?

Are you saying that an area that is 45 minutes from Tempe, Scottsdale, and Phoenix is "central"?

Pretty much every area in Phoenix is about that far out at the max...there are some areas even further, but 45 minutes (I'm thinking freeway driving) is far from "central" in my opinion. I'm at 67th Ave and Happy Valley, which is pretty far out in my opinion, and I'm 30 minutes from downtown Phoenix and north Scottsdale and 45 minutes from south Scottsdale and Tempe and like I said, I consider it very uncentralized.

[az1969]

HX - I see your point. I consider where I live "central" because I'm 20 mins from the airport and tempe, 30 mins from scottsdale and 40 mins from downtown phoenix. So travel to jobs, entertainment, transport is ideal (for me) given the affordability of housing and standard of living in the area I live. I don't think the same could be said for QC etc. which is why the property market there is a disaster.

[azjack]

There will be variations in percentage price drops, just as there were variations in price rises. If many houses are for sale and few sales are being completed, it is indicative of price drops being required by the market.

For example, if there are at least 36 single-family houses for sale in a subdivision, and only two have closed escrow in the last 30 days, that is a putative inventory of 18 months. Under such circumstances, further price drops would clearly be necessary. Those are the figures for the Dobson Ranch subdivision in Mesa.

[HX_Guy]

I think it's toughest on the people who bought multiple houses to flip or people who bought a new home thinking their current one would sell by the time their new one was ready.

If you plan on staying where you're at for a while, a pretty long while at this point it seems, then thing shouldn't really be any different then when you got into the house.
We bought our home for $350,000 and there is a similar one for sale (same floor plan, both have pools, only difference is that our lot is 2000 sq ft bigger) and it's listed at $289,000. A drop loss of $61,000 makes me a little nauseous when I think about it...it will take year upon years to recoup that and come out even, but if that's what it takes, then I guess I'll be in this house for the next 7+ years.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by az1969

HX - I see your point. I consider where I live "central" because I'm 20 mins from the airport and tempe, 30 mins from scottsdale and 40 mins from downtown phoenix. So travel to jobs, entertainment, transport is ideal (for me) given the affordability of housing and standard of living in the area I live. I don't think the same could be said for QC etc. which is why the property market there is a disaster.

In relative terms, I'd consider Dobson Ranch pretty central. More importantly, it's established -- built up several decades ago. I think that makes the most difference because, as someone mentioned above, there is no competition with builders offering incentives on new homes just down the block.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by az1969

In my neighbourhood - Dobson Ranch Mesa it seems to me that house prices have only marginally decreased. I bought in October 2005 just before the height but what I see on the market locally in my area (not that much) is still selling for about the same. Right now it seems that the places which are getting hit badly are those where people went as far out as possible to get as much as they could. "Central" areas like mine where it's 30 - 45 mins to Scottsdale, Tempe and Phoenix where the good jobs are seem to be holding up. Anyone sense the same thing?

Are they still trying to unload those old Dobson Bay Club renovated apartments turned condos from the 300,000's? If so it amazes me.