Is Phoenix RE Market Really Slowing Down for Long? - No. (sales, real estate)

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by tolovefromANFIELD

I believe the problem is more structural, than anything else.

a.) Demand was driven primarily by the institutionalized investors. Additionally, weak US Dollar against Canadian Dollar drove demand for second-home purchases. Four out of every ten homes in the valley by the end of 2013 was a non-owner occupied purchase. That is unsustainable.

I gotta disagree with you on this point- institutional investors came to Phoenix late. Before the institutional buyers got here, demand was driven by a combination of first-time buyers using that 10% tax credit, and smaller investors selling their other investments to buy homes. Mom's & Pop's who were getting *buried* in their "safe" investments on wall street. there was a run on gold & silver, 10,000 banks were gonna collapse any second now, etc. Canadians?!.. lol, please!. In a metro area the size of Phoenix, the percentage of Canadian buyers has never been more than an overhyped "burp" in a beer-can. I love Canadians so much I married one, but they arent a major factor in the crash, the recovery, or the current situation here.

you have to know the history before you can revise it to fit your agenda..

[tolovefromANFIELD]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

I gotta disagree with you on this point- institutional investors came to Phoenix late. Before the institutional buyers got here, demand was driven by a combination of first-time buyers using that 10% tax credit, and smaller investors selling their other investments to buy homes. Mom's & Pop's who were getting *buried* in their "safe" investments on wall street. there was a run on gold & silver, 10,000 banks were gonna collapse any second now, etc. Canadians?!.. lol, please!. In a metro area the size of Phoenix, the percentage of Canadian buyers has never been more than an overhyped "burp" in a beer-can. I love Canadians so much I married one, but they arent a major factor in the crash, the recovery, or the current situation here.

you have to know the history before you can revise it to fit your agenda..

Huge price increases came in directly as a result of institutional investors and not small scale-that is a fact. Small timers could never absorb the level of inventory that was available. While small guys put a floor on the pricing, big guys drove the increases and gulped up properties by the truck loads.

Your "lols" and "history revisionist" comments are a bit unnecessary and childish, don't you think?

[aoeu00]

It's definitely "yet another" interesting time in the RE market. We can always look into the past and see what happened.. and it does look like everything did stop around July 2013.. like a near complete stop.. unless your home was priced very low to sell.

It seems a lot of people became frustrated and pulled their homes off of the market just in the past couple of months. Just in Feb, things appear to have picked up. A few homes we were looking at have already gone into contract (we are looking to buy). Inventory is not "too" right now. With a somewhat small drop from the short term "peak" we had back in mid-2013.. this might be scaring potential sellers.

My best guess is prices will just hover about where they are give or take a couple of percent. I can't see homes dropping 10% or gaining 10% in value in 2014. If prices start to creep up, you may have a flood of people who will go and list.. then we'll have too much inventory.

I think it really comes down to inventory. We'll see..

[caryberry]

Compared to last year, in my corner of the world (central/South Scottsdale) - house are on the market for a longer period of time and the prices are frequently lowered. In the past 3-4 months, the number of "For Sale" signs going up is furious.

Properties in these same neighborhoods were selling within days a year ago. Currently, homes for sale seem to languish on the market longer and longer.

[hikernut]

Things have definitely slowed in our neck of the woods. One house in our neighborhood has been on the market since last summer... two price drops and still no sale. Another house went on the market and then they apparently pulled it. A house in a nearby neighborhood finally sold after many months and a couple of price drops.

Also, I'm still on some mailing lists of new-home builders, and recently got an e-mail with offer of up to $50K off inventory homes.

hikernut

[phetaroi]

Although I'm not looking to move until maybe a year from now, I've been keeping an eye on the properties for sale in Sun City West via Trulia. It's just a hunch, but prices seem flat or maybe even dipping very slightly.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by tolovefromANFIELD

Huge price increases came in directly as a result of institutional investors and not small scale-that is a fact. Small timers could never absorb the level of inventory that was available. While small guys put a floor on the pricing, big guys drove the increases and gulped up properties by the truck loads.

Your "lols" and "history revisionist" comments are a bit unnecessary and childish, don't you think?

I was here, in Phoenix, buying homes during the crash - so, yeah, I kinda know what happened, and pretending that Phoenix was "rescued" from certain doom by herds of wealthy Canadians and uber-intelligent hedge-fund managers isn't it.

The party was pretty much over by the time the big-money banker-types showed up, but they've done an amazing job of taking credit they haven't earned in response to the recovery.

Blackstone group & Colony capitol didn't even show up in Phoenix until mid-2012...

But like I said - feel free to revise history to your needs..

[tolovefromANFIELD]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

I was here, in Phoenix, buying homes during the crash - so, yeah, I kinda know what happened, and pretending that Phoenix was "rescued" from certain doom by herds of wealthy Canadians and uber-intelligent hedge-fund managers isn't it.

The party was pretty much over by the time the big-money banker-types showed up, but they've done an amazing job of taking credit they haven't earned in response to the recovery.

Blackstone group & Colony capitol didn't even show up in Phoenix until mid-2012...

But like I said - feel free to revise history to your needs..

You are either not reading what I am typing or are simply dancing to your own song.

BIG PRICE INCREASES did not happen until Institutional investors came to the Valley. That is a FACT.

I already conceded the fact that the recovery was already under way, but there is no way that the homes would have appreciated it like they did without the big money moving in.

Look at this map, and tell me that there isn't a big positive correlation between percentage bought by institutional investors and big rise in prices.

What happens to prices when Wall Street is your landlord

[KurtAZ]

not sure about inventory shortages or not but we have 29,523 homes on the MLS right now.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by SMG

I simply think the market has normalized, inventory is balanced. Properties are still selling, people are still buying. Values are not supposed to rise at the rates they were the last couple of years, properties are not always going to receive multiple offers and sell over listing price in week one. I think what we are seeing is a balanced, normal market.

Agree. I think we are finally approaching the "new normal". The huge gains in appreciation of the past 2-3 years are gone. Expect slow to moderate gains of 2-5% for the next few years until another down cycle occurs (which I expect won't be nearly as pronounced or as long as the last). I think the past decade+ has just made people forget what a balanced market looks like.