How is Phoenix as bad as Los Angeles for crime? (Maricopa: 2013, insurance)

[lookintomove15]

You know the classic image of LA, right? Carjackings, drive-by shootings, gangs, robberies, murders, people getting jumped for no reason, South Central. Well guess what, Phoenix is about just as dangerous as LA!!!!

Take a look...

Maricopa County murder rate per 100K
2000 - 8.2
2001 - 11.1
2002 - 9.8
2003 - 10.2
2004 - 9.7
2005 - 9.8
2006 - 10.2
2007 - 9.6
2008 - 7.9
2009 - 6.0
2010 - 6.3
2011 - 5.6
2012 - 5.6
2013 - 5.6

Los Angeles County murder rate per 100K
2000 - 10.5
2001 - 11.0
2002 - 11.8
2003 - 10.9
2004 - 10.9
2005 - 10.9
2006 - 10.7
2007 - 9.0
2008 - 8.5
2009 - 7.5
2010 - 6.6
2011 - 6.1
2012 - 6.0
2013 - 5.8

U.S. National murder rate per 100K
2000 - 6.0
2001 - 6.1
2002 - 6.2
2003 - 6.2
2004 - 6.0
2005 - 6.2
2006 - 6.3
2007 - 6.1
2008 - 5.9
2009 - 5.5
2010 - 5.3
2011 - 5.3
2012 - 5.4
2013 - 5.2

And I remember visiting Phoenix back around 2005 for some time. Talk about scary. They had 2 serial killers on the loose!

Jury convicts Arizona man Mark Goudeau*in Baseline Killer spree that terrorized Phoenix* - NY Daily News

Dale Hausner, One of Phoenix's Infamous "Serial Shooters" in 2005-06, To Remain On Death Row | Phoenix New Times

But, back to my question, how could Phoenix be as dangerous as LA?

[Ponderosa]

Murder is a lousy indicator of "safety". Most murders are domestic violence or cases where the parties know each other. Looking at the stats suggests that the period when human smuggling was at its peak around here coincides with the highest murder rates. It was pretty common to read about bodies turning up in the desert with bullet holes and smugglers shooting it out.

In any case, I have never though of LA as a dangerous place to visit. Clearly there are areas to stay out of. There are areas in Phoenix that one might want to avoid as well, but the risk at making a wrong turn in Phoenix is pretty much nil. Not so in LA.

Statistically speaking, you are attempting to compare vastly different population sizes as well.

[elcajones]

There are some serious slums here too. In both places and anywhere, be smart.

[RubyJune]

1. Because there are criminals everywhere.
2. Because numbers really don't mean anything.

The way I look at it is this - where are the murders stemming from?

Examples:

Gang violence, unless you're affiliated with that life, your chances of being a victim are low.
Revenge/crime of passion/greed - these are murders committed by someone who knows you for various reasons, usually one of those three. Anyone who watches the ID channel knows murders are almost always committed by someone you know. There is a reason the spouse is always the first suspect.

What's left are serial killers, robberies gone wrong, random acts of violence. These are the only numbers someone really needs to be concerned with when looking strictly at the murder rate. Unfortunately, statistics almost never break this down.

In short, I offer the following:

1. Look for highly concentrated violent neighbourhoods. These are your typical gang areas. Stay out of them.
2. Don't be a jerk to people, cheat on your spouse, or let anyone take out a sizeable life insurance policy on you.
3. Anything else is really up to fate.

[lookintomove15]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Statistically speaking, you are attempting to compare vastly different population sizes as well.

Maricopa County: 4,100,000 population
LA County: 10,100,000 population

[elcajones]

The statistics are based on per 100,000 people. Therefore, I think it's a pretty good fair way to compare the 2 and populations of the 2 should be irrelevant. Am I missing something here?

[observer53]

Originally Posted by lookintomove15

Maricopa County: 4,100,000 population
LA County: 10,100,000 population

Like he said, vastly different.

I don't know about LA, but the majority of homicides here involve people who know each other-- gang members or other criminal associates, and family members. That kind of homicide can and does happen everywhere, it's got nothing to do with Phoenix/Maricopa County itself. That's why using homicide rates as a general indicator of "crime" is not the best method, as noted upthread.

[jmac1]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Murder is a lousy indicator of "safety". Most murders are domestic violence or cases where the parties know each other. Looking at the stats suggests that the period when human smuggling was at its peak around here coincides with the highest murder rates. It was pretty common to read about bodies turning up in the desert with bullet holes and smugglers shooting it out.

In any case, I have never though of LA as a dangerous place to visit. Clearly there are areas to stay out of. There are areas in Phoenix that one might want to avoid as well, but the risk at making a wrong turn in Phoenix is pretty much nil. Not so in LA.

Statistically speaking, you are attempting to compare vastly different population sizes as well.

Take it from someone who knows. This pretty much sums it up.

I lived in LA (Compton, Pasadena-the bad part-, and the SFV) from 1986-2005 and Phoenix from 2005-present. I live in S. Phoenix today-by choice-and I love it as I have mentioned on city data, and that is supposed to be our "bad" area. There is no way in hell I would live in South LA-formerly S. Central- nor many other areas of LA. People here think we have gang violence.....it is to laugh. Born in Chicago and grew up outside of Detroit......trust me, Phoenix is very quiet.

[BIG CATS]

Im willing to bet that PHX's crime stats are as bad as LA's because half the people in Phoenix are from LA and brought their crime with em!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by elcajones

The statistics are based on per 100,000 people. Therefore, I think it's a pretty good fair way to compare the 2 and populations of the 2 should be irrelevant. Am I missing something here?

Yes, but I don't want to go into it.