Welcome to Nonsoon season!! (to work, windows, outside)

[New Horizons]

Does the humidity began to drop soon? Under 20% I can handle, under 15% and I'm very content. I don't care for this balmy weather, it feels low-tech and primitive.

[observer53]

Originally Posted by New Horizons

Does the humidity began to drop soon? Under 20% I can handle, under 15% and I'm very content. I don't care for this balmy weather, it feels low-tech and primitive.

Should drop off in a few weeks. The official end of the monsoon is 9/15, it should be drier by that time.

[BIG CATS]

Originally Posted by New Horizons

Does the humidity began to drop soon? Under 20% I can handle, under 15% and I'm very content. I don't care for this balmy weather, it feels low-tech and primitive.

Its been quite a bit drier than it was earlier this month, thats for sure. Dew points and humidity have been down, and Im loving it. Its just a TAD sticky out there, nothing too bad. As observer53 said, it usually dries out by late September. We should only have another month or so of elevated humidity. By early October we're back to bone dry air. I cant wait!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by observer53

Should drop off in a few weeks. The official end of the monsoon is 9/15, it should be drier by that time.

The global pattern is already setting up. . We might get some of those transitional events in early Sep when the cold fronts hit the remaining monsoon flow - tornadoes, heavy rains, wind damages. The last couple rain events in AZ looked more transition than pure monsoonal. Then it's on to hurricane remnant season in October when there is always the outside chance we can get 4-5 inches in a day. One thing sure: there will be a lot more sun and heat than rain and cool.

[BIG CATS]

More rain overnight and this morning in Scottsdale. Quite the active month so far!

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by observer53

Should drop off in a few weeks. The official end of the monsoon is 9/15, it should be drier by that time.

Actually, the official NWS last day is Sept 30th; but I consider the end of the monsoon when two things have both happened: 5 consecutive days with avg dewpoints 49° or lower AND 3 consecutive days with low temps at Sky Harbor 74° or lower. In the last 15 years, the average date of when those have both occured is September 23rd, but it's ranged from Sept 8th in 2005 to October 23rd last year (last year, the first 5 day stretch with avg dewpoints 49° or less was October 24th through October 28th)

[ScottsdaleMark]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The global pattern is already setting up. . We might get some of those transitional events in early Sep when the cold fronts hit the remaining monsoon flow - tornadoes, heavy rains, wind damages. The last couple rain events in AZ looked more transition than pure monsoonal. Then it's on to hurricane remnant season in October when there is always the outside chance we can get 4-5 inches in a day. One thing sure: there will be a lot more sun and heat than rain and cool.

Yes, exactly...a lot of westerly elements behind all the rain the last week-plus from what I understand. I'll take it though and I love, love, love morning rains and the cloudy cool days that follow.

I actually really love the transitional time of year because it combines both cooler days and nights with enough elements to still produce storms. The tropical storm factor is always something we can hope for but can't count on it.

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

Actually, the official NWS last day is Sept 30th; but I consider the end of the monsoon when two things have both happened: 5 consecutive days with avg dewpoints 49° or lower AND 3 consecutive days with low temps at Sky Harbor 74° or lower. In the last 15 years, the average date of when those have both occured is September 23rd, but it's ranged from Sept 8th in 2005 to October 23rd last year (last year, the first 5 day stretch with avg dewpoints 49° or less was October 24th through October 28th)

Pretty decent criteria, how did you select it?

I'm not sure the low temperature is that relevant but I'm guessing you put that in there so that breaks in the monsoon during July, etc., wouldn't qualify for "the end of monsoon" under your system (e.g. July 8th would've been the end of the monsoon this year if not for the temp qualifier, since it started a run of 7 straight days <49 dewpoint).

I love these late, long-lasting tail ends of the monsoon...this recent weather, 95-100, cloudy, not TOO humid, lots of storms popping off here and there...it's extremely liveable!

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by ScottsdaleMark

Yes, exactly...a lot of westerly elements behind all the rain the last week-plus from what I understand. I'll take it though and I love, love, love morning rains and the cloudy cool days that follow.

I actually really love the transitional time of year because it combines both cooler days and nights with enough elements to still produce storms. The tropical storm factor is always something we can hope for but can't count on it.



Pretty decent criteria, how did you select it?

I'm not sure the low temperature is that relevant but I'm guessing you put that in there so that breaks in the monsoon during July, etc., wouldn't qualify for "the end of monsoon" under your system (e.g. July 8th would've been the end of the monsoon this year if not for the temp qualifier, since it started a run of 7 straight days <49 dewpoint).

I love these late, long-lasting tail ends of the monsoon...this recent weather, 95-100, cloudy, not TOO humid, lots of storms popping off here and there...it's extremely liveable!

Basically, these criteria signal the big pattern change back to the westerlies, and normally after both have occured, both 80°+ low temps and resurgences of the 55°+ dewpoints don't happen. I looked at a lot of data from Aug,Sep and Oct of 2001-2015 to come up with my theory, and having experienced all 15 years, I'd say it pans out.

[ScottsdaleMark]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

Basically, these criteria signal the big pattern change back to the westerlies, and normally after both have occured, both 80°+ low temps and resurgences of the 55°+ dewpoints don't happen. I looked at a lot of data from Aug,Sep and Oct of 2001-2015 to come up with my theory, and having experienced all 15 years, I'd say it pans out.

Cool, thank you for the info. Please feel free to share any other weather theories/formulas you've come up with. I enjoy stuff like this.

[New Horizons]

I think we might be on the improving side of things. The daytime humidity has been under 20% the last couple days. Yesterday evening seemed pleasant outside.