Phoenix housing market ($750K+) (sales, real estate market, 2015)

[Skerzz]

Been watching the Phoenix real estate market for the past 9 months or so. Things seem to have slowed in the Arcadia/camelback corridors and North Crentral neighborhoods at price points above $750K. Is this just seasonal (less buyers in the hot summer months) or have prices run to far too fast? Maybe a combination of both; thoughts? I see investor properties sitting on market for 100+ days; these guys must be getting ready to deal on properties??

[BIG CATS]

Originally Posted by Skerzz

Been watching the Phoenix real estate market for the past 9 months or so. Things seem to have slowed in the Arcadia/camelback corridors and North Crentral neighborhoods at price points above $750K. Is this just seasonal (less buyers in the hot summer months) or have prices run to far too fast? Maybe a combination of both; thoughts? I see investor properties sitting on market for 100+ days; these guys must be getting ready to deal on properties??

Prices ran too far too fast. All these knuckleheads buying up second homes at prices way overvalued are gonna lose their butts when this market collapses again (which signs are pointing to sooner than later).

[ShampooBanana]

It's a little of both. There is definitely a seasonal lag in home sales here in the hot months. Yes, appreciation has been high but I think it's almost more that along with combination of higher interest rates slowing things down a little at the high end, plus right now the rising interest rates cause more people who had existing homes at lower interest rates to stay put. What is the incentive to move when you are paying a 3.5% interest rate on a home you bought for much cheaper when the market wasn't so hot?

[UpTownJon]

Here's the quick data for 85018, the majority of the Arcadia area zip code.

The time it takes to sell as of the first of this month compared to last month is up 5 days. That's seasonal. However, compared to last quarter, last year, and two years ago, its actually less day on market. This price range moves slower than entry level housing, regardless of how hot the area is.

If you want hard data (and not speculation) on other cities, or zips I can pull just about any detailed data or analytics you can think of for the market. Let me know if you need something.

[Electrician4you]

Like anything else it’s a combination of factors. Rates are higher. For example my house was bought at 3.5% rate two years ago.The rate is now 4.5. That’s about $300 more if I was to pay the same amount for buying it today vs two years ago. The house is now appreciated about 100,000 in two years. Since it has gone up the payment would be about $800 more a month taking in account the rate and price hike.
Pretty insane.

For the smart buyers/owners it makes no sense to sell. It would cost me almost 10,000 dollars a year more to buy that same house today. Not counting closing and move in costs. There will ALWAYS be latecomers to a party. People that bought 6-10 years ago are laughing their asses off. I tried buying in 2010 and I was having a hard time finding anything that didn’t need major remodeling. And when I did find something it was a bs flip pig with lipstick for 100,000 more than it was bought for thre months prior. Or some overpriced house where a homeowner wanted to get out from under the crushing payment.

While a housing slowdown and even a price drop is possible, it won’t be anything like the last time. If anythignfor the reason that banks knowmwhat to do. They will hold inventory and release it slowly so they won’t flood the market. The rules on the repossession and selling are changed.