Caution! Home buyers! Possible price correction coming to Phoenix! (Scottsdale: 2013, rentals)

[jd433]

I didnt warn on this forum because I was brand new and wasnt really using the forum yet back then. But I warned everyone I could and left before the crash. Having already suffered from a Phoenix Crash in 1992. Phoenix is a nice place but I just dont recommend buying a house there in this market. If you buy a home right now you will likely be taking a hit in the future.
It is better to wait at this point. Rent for a couple of years and see what happens. It's better to buy when the market is a buyers market. Right now Phoenix is in a sellers market.

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Really? Because in this 2007 thread, you were asking about buying in Surprise for yourself (not warning people about the pending fall of RE). All of a sudden you are the PHX RE guru.

See the 2007 thread here http:////www.city-data.com/forum/pho...ml#post1090726 where you asked:

[DetroitN8V]

No one cares about one random person’s speculation. Substantiate your theory, or else it’s just baseless rambling.

[john3232]

Discussion on the Phx housing market:
Arizona Leads Nation In New Mortgage Debt | KJZZ

[NorCalMan]

What's caytion? Do you mean cation? What do positively charged atoms have to do with housing and Phoenix?

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by jd433

ItThe culture would shock you and the humidity would kill you.
I lived in Phoenix for Many years and was a Realtor there so I am qualified to post on this subject here.

Oh wow a realtor who once lived here? We have so few of those you must know your stuff

Houston’s nothing special

[Code Stemi]

OP goes around posting threads like these in various forums across the site. We Las Vegans already got our Caytion thread. Y’all enjoy

[Burning Madolf]

OP is angry he lost out on a house and is trying to become a one man bear market pushing prices down because he's mad.

[Ponderosa]

With the way central banks around the globe print money these days, it is possible that a recession will be held off indefinitely. I doubt that though as the debt burden grows. So eventually there will be a recession the depth of which we do not know. When it comes, and that could be as soon as next year or as late as who knows when, prices for homes in Phoenix will drop. We will probably get hurt worse than most places because we a a growth area and growth is what gets hammered in recessions.

I bought a car one time and was haggling over the price of it with the sales person. He did not want me to look at the shocking sticker and repeatedly admonished me to "focus on the payment, Mr. Ponderosa". That should not apply to the purchase of an asset that has a limited lifespan and certain depreciation, but it is reasonable for a home that you will live in, raise a family, and maybe grow old. Stop worrying about the sales price x years from now and focus on affordability and utility.

A caveat though: There is a short term risk in buying a home right now. While I expect Trump and China to step away from the brink and declare victory while accomplishing very little on this trade war, there is the possibility that it could escalate as well. Already, the global economy is near/in recession because of it. The US is still marginally strong because our consumers wont stop spending. Eventually, though, the global malaise will reach our shores. The stock market is betting that it all will come to an end and they may be right, but keep an eye on things in the next month or so.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by jd433

I didnt warn on this forum because I was brand new and wasnt really using the forum yet back then. But I warned everyone I could and left before the crash. Having already suffered from a Phoenix Crash in 1992. Phoenix is a nice place but I just dont recommend buying a house there in this market. If you buy a home right now you will likely be taking a hit in the future.
It is better to wait at this point. Rent for a couple of years and see what happens. It's better to buy when the market is a buyers market. Right now Phoenix is in a sellers market.

I call B.S. again on your predicting power. According to your earlier posts dated in February of 2008, you bought in Surprise in 2007 and put down 20%. You weren't warning anyone until you got knocked off of your feet in 2008 just one year later. Read it here https://www.city-data.com/forum/houst...ml#post2882552 If you were warning everyone, why did you buy in 2007 in Surprise when homes were clearly on the downfall???? You wrote:

Originally Posted by jd433

Unfortunately I am not able to sell the home in AZ for what is owed on it therefore we are doing a short sale. At this point that is the only way to sell a home in Phoenix that was purchased with a mortgage over the last 4 years.

Things are so bad that even though we put 20% down when we purchased the home we still can't even break even if we sell it. We are just one of the many victims of the Housing Market Crash.

The bottomline is you didn't leave before the crash, you left because of the crash. Hence, you didn't warn anyone like you claimed on your post. You fell victim like a lof of others because you weren't able to predict a thing. I'm not faulting you. Just don't come here and tell us that you were warning everyone not to buy in 2007 when you bought. It's all documented.

To be clear, I'm not saying that we aren't going to have a PHX RE correction. I'm saying your warning is based off of reading all the bad news you can and believing it. We proved your track record isn't ideal. You are just a guy that happens to sell RE somewhere trying to convince people you are smarter than the market.

Here is another post on your RE predictions. This one was back in 2008 again. 3 months later predicting the bottom was in here https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...ml#post3756301

You wrote: "I can't believe it. The Phoenix area housing market has already bottomed out and is actually improving right now. Boy did Phoenix bounce back fast. A lot of the country is still in a dive but it looks like for Phoenix the worst is over. I just checked stats and ther are over 6400 single family homes pending. I will remember this the next time we get a boom.It looks like values in the bedroom communities from 2002 to 2008 over just 6 years they almost doubled in price and then went back down to what they were before the boom. Now it looks like activity is picking up again. The prices dropped so much in some areas that there will probably be a rebound. I can't believe it. I am going to step up and make the call that THE BOTTOM HAS BEEN HIT!!!!!
That means that we can only go up from here. Now get the word out."

This ^^^ is all a PSA. Be careful who you listen to on the internet.

[jd433]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

With the way central banks around the globe print money these days, it is possible that a recession will be held off indefinitely. I doubt that though as the debt burden grows. So eventually there will be a recession the depth of which we do not know. When it comes, and that could be as soon as next year or as late as who knows when, prices for homes in Phoenix will drop. We will probably get hurt worse than most places because we a a growth area and growth is what gets hammered in recessions.

I bought a car one time and was haggling over the price of it with the sales person. He did not want me to look at the shocking sticker and repeatedly admonished me to "focus on the payment, Mr. Ponderosa". That should not apply to the purchase of an asset that has a limited lifespan and certain depreciation, but it is reasonable for a home that you will live in, raise a family, and maybe grow old. Stop worrying about the sales price x years from now and focus on affordability and utility.

A caveat though: There is a short term risk in buying a home right now. While I expect Trump and China to step away from the brink and declare victory while accomplishing very little on this trade war, there is the possibility that it could escalate as well. Already, the global economy is near/in recession because of it. The US is still marginally strong because our consumers wont stop spending. Eventually, though, the global malaise will reach our shores. The stock market is betting that it all will come to an end and they may be right, but keep an eye on things in the next month or so.

this exresses the same concern that i have excpt yours is better written. thank you ponderosa!