Caution! Home buyers! Possible price correction coming to Phoenix! (Mesa: sales, real estate)

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

You wrote

There ought to be a law that SFHs and THs must be owner-occupied unless a entire section of such homes are zoned under the same rules as hotels and segregated from traditional neighborhoods.


Your law proposal would sweep up properties owned by regular people.

Too bad.

Regular people are part of the problem, just like in the drug problem, just like in the alcohol problem.

People get sucked in by tax ill-conceived tax policies written by the banking lobby that work to increase the number of mortgage loans so banks can make more money.

Such a law as I envision will never get enacted as long as our Congress is for sale to lobbyists with briefcases of Benjamins. If it ever does it will be phased in over years to engineer a hopefully soft landing as owners of rental properties start to unwind their positions. As with most everything, our laissez-faire capitalism will let anything go until it's too late to do much about it besides a band-aid and screeching about mission accomplished.

[jd433]

Both Phoenix and Riverside have been deemed THE MOST LIKELY TO CRASH out of every housing market in the entire USA.
Another concern is related to the decline of the Baby Boomer generation. Who will buy all their houses? They make up a very large part of the population.
The new people in the United States are way different than the old people. We are already noticing this in Texas.
Your population is growing just like it is in Texas. Those new people have entirely different Demographics and an entirely different culture.
Phoenix has already started to get a diverse population. That is about to kick into high gear over the next 2 decades.

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

The OP still hasn’t provided anything of substance to support his paranoid “warning”.

[john3232]

My rental SFH will have moved up roughly 3.5% -4.5% this year.

However, I am seeing a jump in rentals:.

1500 sq. ft. 3/2 East Mesa home decent location
2016 1150.
Today 1450

2100 sq ft. 4/2 bed Gilbert home
2016 1375
Today 1775

Chandlers 2400 4/2 in
2016 $1475
Today 1800


Anyway... this has been an informative thread.

I recall the warnings in early 2006 about a coming crash and noticed appreciation of home values had slowed to a halt. Six months later the housing inventory started going through the roof.

But I never thought the Phx housing market would crash as hard as it did.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by jd433

I know the taxes are very high in Texas the way to fix that is to get an over 65 exemption if you can then the taxes are actually lower in Texas then they are in Arizona but insurance is still higher I've done the math before and yes a house in Texas that is 200k has a higher payment than a 300k house in arizona that is true

Not 65 yet and pretty sure I'll never qualify for an exemption when I do. Wife prefers Texas slightly to Arizona and I prefer Arizona by a significant amount as I love the sun and mountains and hate humidity.

I looked at several locations in Texas and when you run the property tax and property insurance numbers, the advantage of lower buy cost get more than swallowed up.

We decided to live in Washington state and winter in Arizona.

[jd433]

That's where I am from originally. Actually Kitsap County.
I will never forget the day I arrived in Phoenix after 17 years in Washington. I arrived in March and thought I was in heaven . The sunshine and warm air woke me up. I remember how great it felt to jump into a pool and be surrounded by palm trees. It was an awesome experience. After 12 years though my wife and I got tired of the desert especially the summers. Then the housing market crashed!! But if you can live in Washington during the summer then that is perfect!!!!
You cant beat the outdoors in Washington

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

Not 65 yet and pretty sure I'll never qualify for an exemption when I do. Wife prefers Texas slightly to Arizona and I prefer Arizona by a significant amount as I love the sun and mountains and hate humidity.

I looked at several locations in Texas and when you run the property tax and property insurance numbers, the advantage of lower buy cost get more than swallowed up.

We decided to live in Washington state and winter in Arizona.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by jd433

That's where I am from originally. Actually Kitsap County.
I will never forget the day I arrived in Phoenix after 17 years in Washington. I arrived in March and thought I was in heaven . The sunshine and warm air woke me up. I remember how great it felt to jump into a pool and be surrounded by palm trees. It was an awesome experience. After 12 years though my wife and I got tired of the desert especially the summers. Then the housing market crashed!! But if you can live in Washington during the summer then that is perfect!!!!
You cant beat the outdoors in Washington

Agreed. IMO, around the Puget Sound is arguably one one the best places to live during the summer. Green, low humidity, mountains, water and the benefits that go along with it (seafood boating, hiking etc).

[yukon]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Agree. My neighbor in COLO SPGS was a realtor who did this and got caught holding new homes with no buyers after the bubble burst.

I have moral objections with investors owning SFHs and THs as rental / investment properties, primarily as a tax dodge. All of this chasing of homes as 'investments' and tax dodges just inflates home prices to crazy levels and prices the younger generations out of the housing market .... and smack into the arms of the REITs and investors who now own millions of homes. It's a disgrace. It's Darwinism at work, survival of the fittest, people are paying exorbitant sums to buy or rent a property in this needlessly inflated bubble.

There ought to be a law that SFHs and THs must be owner-occupied unless a entire section of such homes are zoned under the same rules as hotels and segregated from traditional neighborhoods. Such zoning would treat these homes as hotels for taxing, insurance, fire and other purposes. I do not want an Air BnB next to my SFH with heaven knows who (sex offenders? thieves? party ravers?) coming and going every few days or weeks and absentee property owners not giving much thought to upkeep and other aspects of a healthy neighborhood.

Part of your comment touches on why apartments are so expensive here and rents keep rising - commercial property investors. PHX is on of the hottest multifamily resale markets in the country. Rent goes up every time a property is sold since the new debt is higher. Also, a large number of private rentals have been removed from the longterm rental market and flipped to shortterm rentals (AirBnB, VRBO, etc).

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Agreed. IMO, around the Puget Sound is arguably one one the best places to live during the summer. Green, low humidity, mountains, water and the benefits that go along with it (seafood boating, hiking etc).

I agree with one qualifier, Seattle is no longer what it was due to too much traffic, everything is crowded and housing has gone crazy expensive....the rest of the Puget Sound is pretty awesome in the summer.

[49erfan916]

I'm still trying to buy a house early next year. If it crashes after that, then I will buy another house. No biggie, TBH.

[Rogarven]

Originally Posted by DatBoiLavoi

Tax cuts weren't really major causes of the housing crisis. The community reinvestment act that was modified in the 90's put initial pressure on banks to make loans to individuals who should not have been buying homes. This combined with HUD's affordable housing goals caused a general breakdown in underwriting standards from what I understand. This lead to houses prices increasing passed what they normally would. Many saw these price increases and wanted in on the action.

e.g. Investors bought homes with small down payments and with adjustable rate loans, as they intended to flip them to make a quick buck.

Thank you!!