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View Poll Results: Is a possible housing value correction coming to Phoenix
Yes there will be a correction 50 42.37%
No prices will always go up in Phoenix forever. 18 15.25%
I hope they go down because I want to buy a house 18 15.25%
There will be a correction eventually but it will be "A SOFT LANDING"-ALAN GREENSPAN 32 27.12%
Voters: 118. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-07-2019, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,417,450 times
Reputation: 1527

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Oh, human nature. Here we go again. I want to issue a note of caution to anyone who is thinking about buying g a house In the Phoenix area right now.
I know there will be people who are going to disagree just like they did when I told them in 2007. They will say that im crazy and "where is your proof"? I went through this the last time. As well as in 1992 and 1986 when overspeculation in the outlying areas of Phoenix led to another crash.
If you are fairly new or are not familiar with the history of housing in the Phoenix market then be advised.
Right now the Phoenix housing prices are the highest they have ever been. That is great news for anyone who bought their home 5 to 8 years ago. It is not good news for anyone who is buying today.
13 years ago home prices in Phoenix were almost as high as they are now. But then the home values dropped dramatically. IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN!!! On a smaller scale but it can and more likely WILL happen again.
I understand that the last housing crash was a rare event and will not happen again. But even without that Phoenix may experience another correction especially if a recession comes along. It will be provoked by a domino effect originating in California.
You see home prices in Phoenix have a history of being cyclical. That means that they go up and down in value. Well if right now prices are up to the highest point ever then what can we expect to happen next?

 
Old 12-07-2019, 01:44 PM
 
Location: northwest valley, az
3,424 posts, read 2,931,072 times
Reputation: 4919
what's your point? Everything you said can also be applied to every other major city, so why specify Phoenix?

Trying to get more folks to move to Houston????
 
Old 12-07-2019, 01:50 PM
 
9,196 posts, read 16,676,347 times
Reputation: 11328
What statistics support your claim that prices won’t continue to rise?

Is this whole garbled mess of a rant based only on “IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN!”?
 
Old 12-07-2019, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
6,407 posts, read 9,008,601 times
Reputation: 8507
What's he saying, Robin?
 
Old 12-07-2019, 03:22 PM
 
8,081 posts, read 6,979,864 times
Reputation: 7983
Yeah everybody should move to Houston!
 
Old 12-07-2019, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,417,450 times
Reputation: 1527
Default My point is?

My point is that it's time to start the conversation. I sure wish that I had read a post just like this back in 2006 when I bought a home on the east side for almost 500k.
I rest assure you. MARK MY WORDS! Come back and look at this post 5 years from now. Whoever is buying a home in the Phoenix area right now today. Their home will very likely decline or drop in value in a few years. If you only put 5% or 10% down you will not even be able to pay off the mortgage if you sell it. Even if you put 20% down. The Phoenix housing market has reached yet another peak and it will almost certainly decline in value in the next few years.
By the way did anyone else notice how nicely Alan Greenspan's " SOFT LANDING" went? It's coming again!!!!!
 
Old 12-07-2019, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
1,507 posts, read 3,417,450 times
Reputation: 1527
Default No I dont recommend moving to H-town from Phoenix

ItThe culture would shock you and the humidity would kill you.
I lived in Phoenix for Many years and was a Realtor there so I am qualified to post on this subject here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64 View Post
Yeah everybody should move to Houston!

Last edited by jd433; 12-07-2019 at 03:43 PM..
 
Old 12-07-2019, 04:08 PM
 
9,823 posts, read 11,216,074 times
Reputation: 8513
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
I know there will be people who are going to disagree just like they did when I told them in 2007.
Really? Because in this 2007 thread, you were asking about buying in Surprise for yourself (not warning people about the pending fall of RE). All of a sudden you are the PHX RE guru.

See the 2007 thread here https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...ml#post1090726 where you asked:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
Can someone please give an opinoin on these bedroom communities. Are any of them better than the others or are they all the same??
 
Old 12-07-2019, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,695 posts, read 1,286,784 times
Reputation: 3705
No one should ever try to time a market. Nor should anyone view a primary residence as an investment vehicle. A primary residence is a place to grow and live in. If you want to buy a home...buy a home. That is general advice.

My personal opinion is that a market correction will happen. It always does, but it won't really be that significant at all. Prices right now have somewhat hit a plateau. Going forward, I find it hard to believe things will change that much considering some 250 people move here every day. They all need a place to live.
 
Old 12-07-2019, 04:47 PM
 
9,823 posts, read 11,216,074 times
Reputation: 8513
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sno0909 View Post
No one should ever try to time a market. Nor should anyone view a primary residence as an investment vehicle. A primary residence is a place to grow and live in. If you want to buy a home...buy a home. That is general advice.
Tell that to the people who bought here in 2007. They might disagree with you. But I understand what you are saying.

People buy house payments (cheap debt) which goes along way in explaining why the housing market is so expensive/overpriced. That's a less than ideal approach IMO. I'm all about being debt free and living under my means. But that's not how most Americans roll.
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