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Even if reported accurately, the test numbers are definitely getting thrown off for healthcare workers versus the general population now. I had a pre-employment test for a new healthcare job last week, then a patient I cared for over the weekend tested positive, new job wanted a rapid test today, old job wants another test Thursday (five days post exposure).. Now that some facilities have access to tests, they’re going nuts with it.
It's been known for a while that positive test cases can occur multiple times for the same person. You gave one great example. Or if you had COVID, and you initially test negative but you have symptoms, that's counted negitive. A little later, you finally test positive. That's also counted. Later your fever is down. You retest and realize it is still positive. Yep, it's counted AGAIN. A few days later, you are tested again (and it's _________). You get the point. I think it's semi-obvious that the data isn't pure.
Personally, I don't religiously follow that spec. But it is still (somewhat) relative. People can certainly find a hole and use it to spin that "COVID is overblown" or whatever fits their narrative. I do think that it's not as bad as some people think. Yet, COVID is more significant than others believe.
I will say, I work in a healthcare facility and people are getting counted a lot more than twice. We test people every day and each time they come up positive the lab reports a positive to the state. Some of our patients have had half a dozen positive tests, when we send them to the hospital they get another test and I'm sure the hospital is reporting them also.
That’s not at all what we were discussing. She was claiming that people that hadn’t even been tested were getting positive results. Your article is about false positives. That’s far less of a conspiracy than counting positives for people that hadn’t even been checked. Nice try, I guess.
The other claim is false too:
“ The CDC explains, on its "testing" page, the number of positive tests in a state does not equal the number of positive cases, because a person might be tested more than once. As of Wednesday, July 22, the CDC reported more than 4.6 million positive tests nationwide but only 3.8 million positive cases. That means nearly one million tests were repeat tests from the same people.”
It's been known for a while that positive test cases can occur multiple times for the same person. You gave one great example. Or if you had COVID, and you initially test negative but you have symptoms, that's counted negitive. A little later, you finally test positive. That's also counted. Later your fever is down. You retest and realize it is still positive. Yep, it's counted AGAIN. A few days later, you are tested again (and it's _________). You get the point. I think it's semi-obvious that the data isn't pure.
Personally, I don't religiously follow that spec. But it is still (somewhat) relative. People can certainly find a hole and use it to spin that "COVID is overblown" or whatever fits their narrative. I do think that it's not as bad as some people think. Yet, COVID is more significant than others believe.
I was referring to the reports in the media that were ranking states based on the number of positive tests, I.E., “40% of the tests in this state are positive” - the number of positive tests can no longer be correlated into something to measure against the general population.
Plus, there’s the general problem with databases in general - john smith, John Smith, and John M. Smith might all appear in a government database as “positive”, but they could be the same dude. It’s an easily fixed computer problem, but the government runs old and poorly maintained computers.
The year I moved to Arizona, I reported $30,000 in income in Michigan, and $20,000 in income in Arizona. Then I reported $50,000 in income on my federal taxes. I received a letter from the IRS asking me to please send them a check for unpaid taxes on my income of $100,000. Because everyone knows $30,000 + $20,000 + $50,000 = $100,000.
Even if reported accurately, the test numbers are definitely getting thrown off for healthcare workers versus the general population now. I had a pre-employment test for a new healthcare job last week, then a patient I cared for over the weekend tested positive, new job wanted a rapid test today, old job wants another test Thursday (five days post exposure).. Now that some facilities have access to tests, they’re going nuts with it.
My daughter, a nurse in an area hospital, has not had a test in weeks. They can request a test, but they do not get tested routinely and are not encouraged to do so absent symptoms. After exposure to someone who has COVID? Well, that is what she does. LOL, she would need a test everyday.
The lack of rapid testing for the people who are working with COVID patients is personally difficult. I worry about her and I worry about her potentially infecting her old parents. But it is still taking days to get results from tests and being exposed almost daily, she could test neg one day and become positive in the interval where she waits for results. I haven't seen her in months. Unless you are a politician or a sports player, you can forget about timely testing.
I was referring to the reports in the media that were ranking states based on the number of positive tests, I.E., “40% of the tests in this state are positive” - the number of positive tests can no longer be correlated into something to measure against the general population.
Plus, there’s the general problem with databases in general - john smith, John Smith, and John M. Smith might all appear in a government database as “positive”, but they could be the same dude. It’s an easily fixed computer problem, but the government runs old and poorly maintained computers.
The year I moved to Arizona, I reported $30,000 in income in Michigan, and $20,000 in income in Arizona. Then I reported $50,000 in income on my federal taxes. I received a letter from the IRS asking me to please send them a check for unpaid taxes on my income of $100,000. Because everyone knows $30,000 + $20,000 + $50,000 = $100,000.
Zippy. I agree with you ^^. I was addressing a general statement. People (not you) often use an article or piece of information to "prove" their biased POV.... In BOTH direction of the debate. In this case, by pointing towards the obvious that the total count of COVID positives is off. For me, it's a data point. It only suggests the virus is spreading more or less. A better metric is ICU bed usage and deaths. And YES, the accuracy
of each of those variables is a little bit flawed as well.
I suppose I could prove to myself whatever I want. Rather, I like to look at the data as a whole and conclude accordingly. I've concluded that it's not as bad as the press suggests (they LOVE to market clicks) nor as it as insignifact as others want to believe. A whole lot of doctors I know respect science and are pretty conservative in their day-to-day actions. I tend to error on believing people on the front lines more. Still with the realization they have a skewed vision too. Making assessments is about common sense and balance. I'm poking myhead out some more now while wearing my N95 masks (60 of them), and social distancing.
That’s not at all what we were discussing. She was claiming that people that hadn’t even been tested were getting positive results. Your article is about false positives. That’s far less of a conspiracy than counting positives for people that hadn’t even been checked. Nice try, I guess.
The other claim is false too:
“ The CDC explains, on its "testing" page, the number of positive tests in a state does not equal the number of positive cases, because a person might be tested more than once. As of Wednesday, July 22, the CDC reported more than 4.6 million positive tests nationwide but only 3.8 million positive cases. That means nearly one million tests were repeat tests from the same people.”
I quoted you in my post, here it is again for you. I don't know how someone receiving a positive test when they are negative would not be considered "phantom positives showing up"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DetroitN8V
I've yet to be shown anything that proves that phantom positives are randomly showing up.
The difference between you and I is you're getting your information from surfing the web, I'm working in healthcare and dealing with it every day. I've personally witnessed people get a phone call from Maricopa County on repeat positive tests and Maricopa County believed it was their initial test. Maricopa County was directly calling each person that we reported as positive (contact tracing?) and were caught off guard when the person informed them they had already spoken to Maricopa County on their initial positive test.
I have no confidence that all these different reporting entities, the labs, the county and state are keeping accurate track of positives by name.
Wasn't there a news story a while back that Arizona had a bunch of positive tests but didn't have any of the identifying information to categorize them? They just put them all in the total count? I'll have to try and find that again...
I quoted you in my post, here it is again for you. I don't know how someone receiving a positive test when they are negative would not be considered "phantom positives showing up"?
The difference between you and I is you're getting your information from surfing the web, I'm working in healthcare and dealing with it every day. I've personally witnessed people get a phone call from Maricopa County on repeat positive tests and Maricopa County believed it was their initial test. Maricopa County was directly calling each person that we reported as positive (contact tracing?) and were caught off guard when the person informed them they had already spoken to Maricopa County on their initial positive test.
I have no confidence that all these different reporting entities, the labs, the county and state are keeping accurate track of positives by name.
Wasn't there a news story a while back that Arizona had a bunch of positive tests but didn't have any of the identifying information to categorize them? They just put them all in the total count? I'll have to try and find that again...
You're still confused. "Phantom positives" referred to those that the other poster was claiming as positives for those that hadn't ever even been tested, not the false positives that you decided to bring up.
“ The CDC explains, on its "testing" page, the number of positive tests in a state does not equal the number of positive cases, because a person might be tested more than once. As of Wednesday, July 22, the CDC reported more than 4.6 million positive tests nationwide but only 3.8 million positive cases. That means nearly one million tests were repeat tests from the same people.”
FYI, I found this on the CDC website on how to report COVID Laboratory Data. Notice there is a section on information that MUST be reported and a section on information that SHOULD be reported. You can't identify the person with the MUST be reported information. Without a set standard that everyone is following the data can't be correct imho.
What to report
Complete laboratory data must include the following data elements for state and jurisdictional health departments.
Test ordered – use harmonized LOINC codes provided by CDC
Device Identifier
Test result–use appropriate LOINC and SNOMED codes, as defined by the Laboratory In Vitro Diagnostics (LIVD) Test Code Mapping for SARS-CoV-2 Tests provided by CDC
Test Result date (date format)
Accession # / Specimen ID
Patient age
Patient race
Patient ethnicity
Patient sex
Patient residence zip code
Patient residence county
Ordering provider name and NPI (as applicable)
Ordering provider zip
Performing facility name and CLIA number
Performing facility zip code
Specimen Source – use appropriate LOINC, SNOMED-CT, or SPM4 codes, or equivalently detailed alternative codes
Date test ordered (date format)
Date specimen collected (date format)
The following additional demographic data elements should also be collected and reported to state or local public health departments.
Patient name (Last name, First name, Middle Initial)
Patient street address
Patient phone number with area code
Patient date of birth
Ordering provider address
Ordering provider phone number
My daughter, a nurse in an area hospital, has not had a test in weeks. They can request a test, but they do not get tested routinely and are not encouraged to do so absent symptoms. After exposure to someone who has COVID? Well, that is what she does. LOL, she would need a test everyday.
The lack of rapid testing for the people who are working with COVID patients is personally difficult. I worry about her and I worry about her potentially infecting her old parents. But it is still taking days to get results from tests and being exposed almost daily, she could test neg one day and become positive in the interval where she waits for results. I haven't seen her in months. Unless you are a politician or a sports player, you can forget about timely testing.
Depends on which hospital. My friend, who is a nurse in one of the area hospitals gets tested every 2 weeks religiously whether she wants to or not. She is so over it.
even my doctor yesterday, said that sadly, doctors and hospitals are over reporting anything related to Covid, because the rate of reimubursal amounts from insurance companies is 2 to 3 times higher for covid deaths/treatments versus "normal" deaths..sadly, as always, "follow the money"..
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Unless you are a politician or a sports player, you can forget about timely testing.
I've concluded that it's not as bad as the press suggests (they LOVE to market clicks) nor as it as insignifact as others want to believe. A whole lot of doctors I know respect science and are pretty conservative in their day-to-day actions. I tend to error on believing people on the front lines more. Still with the realization they have a skewed vision too. Making assessments is about common sense and balance. I'm poking myhead out some more now while wearing my N95 masks (60 of them), and social distancing.
