Allegheny County in 2020: Your projections (Pittsburgh, Penn: home, school districts, universities)

[Craziaskowboi]

Allegheny County - 2010 U.S. Census

1,223,348 population

81.5% White
13.2% Black
0.1% Native American
2.8% Asian
0.0% Pacific Islander
1.8% Multiracial

1.6% Hispanic origin

What do you think Allegheny County's population and racial/ethnic composition will be in 2020? Here's my projection:

Allegheny County - 2020 U.S. Census

1,235,696 population

77.1% White
15.1% Black
4.9% Asian
0.1% Pacific Islander
2.3% Multiracial

3.3% Hispanic origin

My thinking is that Allegheny County will finally begin to grow slowly by no later than the middle of the decade, and will begin to see a more noticeable influx of racial and ethnic minorities.

I expect the black population to make a decent jump in absolute number due to Pittsburgh's size, affordability and proximity to the extra-large cities on the coast. Between 2000 and 2010, the black population in Allegheny County increased a mere 1.5% from 159,055 to 161,482. A loss in the city of Pittsburgh nearly negated growth in the rest of the county, but I expect that to change a bit. By 2020, the black population will increase by 15.5% to 186,590.

I also expect Pittsburgh to become an emerging Asian magnet due to the colleges and universities, the good school districts, and the relatively tranquil lifestyle. There already seems to be a good bond forming with India, for example. Between 2000 and 2010, the Asian population in Allegheny County increased 58.1% from 21,660 to 34,254. I expect this to accelerate, and by 2020, the Asian population will increase 76.8% to 60,549.

Compared to Asians, Hispanics tend to follow a path of less resistance when it comes to immigration, and for that reason, I don't believe that Pittsburgh's Hispanic population will explode anytime soon because it's so far off the beaten path. Eastern Pennsylvania will become noticeably more Hispanic, but I don't expect many Hispanics to jump over the mountains yet. Between 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic population in Allegheny County increased 75.5% from 11,151 to 19,574. It will accelerate a bit, but it'll remain smaller than the Asian population. By 2020, the Hispanic population will increase 108.3% to 40,778.

As for the white population, I expect it to shrink a bit more simply due to the fact that almost all the elderly population in Allegheny County is white. This is also why I expect the white population to get younger. Between 2000 and 2010, the white population in Allegheny County dropped below 1,000,000, decreasing 7.8% from 1,080,829 to 997,028. I expect that the losses will slow, though, as the birth rate increases and more white people begin to move in due to more job opportunities than in the past. By 2020, the white population will decrease by 4.4% to 952,721.

With more intermingling, the multiracial proportion of the population will grow from 1.8% to 2.3%. I also expect a few Pacific Islanders to begin to show up and grow their proportion to 0.1%. (Hey, it's better than nothing!)

In summary, by 2020 I expect the black population to jump relative to recent decades, the Asian population to rocket past 50,000, and the Hispanic population to more than double from its small base. I also expect the arrival of a few Pacific Islanders, an increase in the multiracial population, and a slowing of the decrease in the white population. Altogether, this will help Allegheny County post a 1.0% increase in total population from 1,223,348 to 1,235,696.

So how do you see Allegheny County shaping up in 2020?

[gg]

It will probably be pretty flat across the board. The demand can't get too high or people will flee to to nearby counties due to taxes and more bang for the buck. You can live in a very nice large home just outside Allegheny County and pay much lower taxes. Taxes are what keeps our population from going up.

It is hard to say. Overall, Pittsburgh's region is doing better than at any time in my life and it feels good. I hope it continues.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

I thought we lost black population over the last 10 years?

Pittsburgh region's population loss slows slightly in 10 years

"Pittsburgh's black population declined from 90,750 to 79,710, and went from 27 percent of the city to 26 percent."

If anything, I see our "Asian" (not East Asian) population increasing by a quite a large number with the huge Indian population that has moved here within the past 3 years. Also, in my area I'm seeing several Pakistani families (and some Uzbek folks) move in within the past 6 months.

The real question, will we actually see growth in the area within the next 10 years? In 2000 they said that 2000-2010 we should have turned the corner and gained population but obviously that did not happen:

2000 Census information about southwestern Pennsylvania - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

[stburr91]

Originally Posted by Aqua Teen Carl

I thought we lost black population over the last 10 years?

Pittsburgh region's population loss slows slightly in 10 years

"Pittsburgh's black population declined from 90,750 to 79,710, and went from 27 percent of the city to 26 percent."

That's the city, Gnutella was talking about the county, which saw growth.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Originally Posted by stburr91

That's the city, Gnutella was talking about the county, which saw growth.

Ah good point. My bad.

[BrianTH]

I don't know--African-Americans have recently been moving out of other Northeast and Great Lakes cities to the South:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/us...pagewanted=all

I think it also was not so much a decline in the City negating gains elsewhere as AAs moving from the City to the suburbs, a process I expect will continue. In that context, a 15.5% gain countywide may be unrealistic--and if there is a rising Northeast coast diaspora to Pittsburgh, including a stable to growing population specifically in the City, I think it will be more normally-proportioned between white and black than these projections imply.

I also think more people with Hispanic heritage may come to Pittsburgh, but a lot of them will be multi-generation Americans, many with mixed heritage that may put them into the multiracial category.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

a lot of them will be multi-generation Americans, many with mixed heritage that may put them into the multiracial category.

Sup.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Aqua Teen Carl

Sup.

Indeed.

The national trend is now that native births are driving Hispanic population growth--something like 58% of the growth in the last decade. Meanwhile, intermarriage goes up among the native-born members of ethnic groups, and that is particularly true among the more educated people.

So when you look at a place like Pittsburgh, which doesn't have an established Hispanic immigrant enclave, and which is moving to a more educated young population, you get a recipe for native-born, and often mixed-ethnicity, Hispanics playing an ever-increasing role in future Hispanic-heritage population growth.

[squarian]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

Allegheny County - 2010 U.S. Census

13.2% Black

Allegheny County - 2020 U.S. Census

15.1% Black

I expect the black population to make a decent jump in absolute number due to Pittsburgh's size, affordability and proximity to the extra-large cities on the coast. Between 2000 and 2010, the black population in Allegheny County increased a mere 1.5% from 159,055 to 161,482. A loss in the city of Pittsburgh nearly negated growth in the rest of the county, but I expect that to change a bit. By 2020, the black population will increase by 15.5% to 186,590.

Of course this is all speculative, but a 14% increase in a decade? When the previous decade saw a tenth of that? And the African-American birthrate has been trending down the last few decades?

I can't see a new AA baby boom in this decade. And while "size, affordability, proximity" are factors which should draw some immigration to Pgh, it's likely to affect every racial/ethnic category in rough proportion, but somewhat less for AAs who, having less capital, tend to be less able to migrate for economic opportunity.

There was an AA baby boom, though less of a demographic bulge than other groups because the AA birthrate was already higher than average. Likewise, the percentage of AAs under 18 (32.5) is higher than the general population.

All the same, with a birthrate just slightly higher than white non-hispanics (2.0 vs 1.8), AA deaths in each age cohort higher than the general pop, and less geographical/economic mobility, I suspect your 14% estimate is way too high. In fact, I think it's quite possible that the AA pop in Pgh will remain stagnant and therefore decline slightly as a proportion of the whole.

I'm getting my data from:
American FactFinder
Population Reference Bureau PRB Discuss: U.S. Birth Rate: Still Fueling Population Growth?

[squarian]

In general, I think it's very clear from the past decade or so that two racial/ethnic groups will increase considerably in Pgh over the next decade (and onward):

Asian (particularly South Asian)
Mixed-race (particularly people with white-black mixed ancestry)

The Hispanic category seems poised to increase considerably, simply because the starting figure was is so low and the national increase so high, but since Hispanic internal immigration is largely driven by low-wage economic opportunities, I would prefer to withhold judgement, depending on whether the area booms or busts.