Future of Pittsburgh (Sharpsburg, Portland, Youngstown: attorney, high school, college)

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by kjtocool

Curtis,

Where are you living that you're paying 14k a year in taxes?! Hopefully you're not just talking about school / property taxes?

Well, municipal and county taxes are pretty low in general in most parts of PA. School taxes DO tend to comprise the lion's share of your overall tax bill, and they also tend to be rising on an annual basis. Fox Chapel's school taxes tend to be very high, but you also get what you pay for.

[BrianTH]

Parts of Pittsburgh are already experiencing fairly high rates of housing appreciation (meaning substantially higher than general inflation rates), and those zones are expanding. In general, Pittsburgh has some of the fastest appreciation around these days--which admittedly isn't saying much given the bloodbath most places, but it does mean Pittsburgh prices are starting to close the gap. There is a long way to go before Pittsburgh isn't still a bargain compared to most places, but I think that could happen faster than some people think if we aren't smart about how we develop the region.

[globalburgh]

Pittsburgh is already surprisingly pricey. Both Louis von Ahn and Jesse Schell made this point. Schell's experience moving from LA to Pittsburgh is particularly compelling. Where he wanted to live didn't offer much in the way of savings.

It's important to understand how the real estate market is regulated. This helps to keep even the high end properties sane. But the coming boom will surprise just about everyone.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

In general, Pittsburgh has some of the fastest appreciation around these days--which admittedly isn't saying much given the bloodbath most places

LOL! Not to sidetrack what is currently a very intensive, civil, and informative discussion, but envisioning the housing market in the Sunbelt as being a "bloodbath" just made me snort---so loudly I probably just woke up my landlady downstairs. Good one!

[SteelCityRising]

Some people live in this "yinzer bubble of denial" of sorts in which they can't ever envision this city becoming cost-prohibitive for prospective entry-level homeowners. Believe it or not a recent housing search for rowhomes in Bloomfield, which in and of itself is still gentrifying and has quite a bit of grit and grime, shows places in need of at least cosmetic updating already STARTING in the low-$100k range. Why? No offense intended, but I don't particularly find Liberty Avenue, which is Bloomfield's main drag, to be particularly useful for day-to-day needs. It has a run-down tiny grocery store at one end, and an abandoned building at the other end (which, admittedly, will be an L.A. Fitness in 2012 if I'm not mistaken). In between are dive bars, Italian restaurants (most of which are overrated), check cashing places, Asian restaurants, dollar stores, massage parlors, and not much else. I certainly wouldn't pay $110,000 for a rowhome there in need of TLC, and it still boggles my mind why that neighborhood in particular seems to be appreciating so rapidly now in terms of pricing.

I'm sure there was a point in time when nobody ever envisioned North Point Breeze, which borders Homewood, being a "desirable" locale, but now just look at housing prices there, too. Lawrenceville, as was discussed in another thread initiated by h_curtis, is still very much "transitional", yet entry-level housing prices there tend to be even a notch higher than Bloomfield for some odd reason, even though at least Bloomfield has the added bonus of being more convenient to better East End neighborhoods with more stuff going on (i.e. Shadyside, Oakland, etc.) than Lawrenceville. Yes, it has some awesome places like Piccolo Forno, Cattivo (has it reopened yet?), and Dozen (which just reopened), but there's still a lot of revitalization to do. BrianTH of all people has probably noticed significant property appreciation too since he purchased his home just before Regent Square became as popular as it is today.

I'm sure places like Millvale, Sharpsburg, Etna, Wilkinsburg (away from the parts bordering Regent Square), Swissvale, and other areas will remain very "attainable" for entry-level homeowners for at least another generation. As far as places like Bloomfield, Lawrenceville, North Point Breeze, and others are concerned? At their rates of housing appreciation in just the past several years methinks they'll be just a hair below entry-level housing prices in "tony" neighborhoods like Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, and Point Breeze in another 5-10 years, if even that.

[kjtocool]

Taxes are certainly high, especially for the schools, but you I wouldn't expect anyone to be in the 14k neighborhood unless they're in a 500k home, which is far from average around here. That's just considering property taxes mind you (though even local income tax of 1% won't push you to 14k).

You should be able to get a home around 200k with property taxes in the $2500 to $5500 range, depending on location.

[Aqua Teen Carl]

Honestly, I don't see a whole lot changing here in 20 years. If you look at the city in 1990 and you look at it today you will see that Pittsburgh was in it's "bubble" then just as much as it is now. The US prospered in the 1980's while Pittsburgh suffered and now as Pittsburgh is prospering the nation as a whole is suffering. It just seems that we're always be in our own little world.

20 years from now I still see the Yinzer population here (although in smaller quantities), we'll still see the beat up buildings and roads, and we'll still see companies realizing they can make a quick buck by employing the Pittsburgh work force. The only thing I worry about it the erosion of education that has been occurring both locally and to a lesser extent nationwide. That will screw things up for everyone.

[expdxer]

Originally Posted by Tiger Beer

I think Pittsburgh will continue the kind of people it already attracts. I think its a niche market for a certain kind of person.

Also, I think if a person has never been anywhere before, than a ton of other places sound more appealing than Pittsburgh. It's only when you've already done your 'amazing place' and you start thinking of 'what's next' that Pittsburgh comes across the radar screen.

I just may be that sort of person, I am 50, grew up in the NYC area, have lived in NYC proper, San Francisco, Portland, OR, now Northern VA, and have visited Seattle several times. I just visited Pittsburgh and I am now deciding whether to move there or Seattle. Having lived on both coasts, I think Pittsburgh combines a little of both of the older East Coast cities and the more laid back West Coast vibe, and I would have fewer 20-somethings to compete with for jobs. I have personal ties to the West Coast so it's going to be a tough decision.

[rkhallon]

Just wanted to say that I'm sincerely appreciative of all the thoughts. Pried far more out of you folks than the Minnesotans.

[BrianTH]

A couple thoughts on possible constraints:

(1) As we have discussed here many times now, Pittsburgh's relatively high property tax rates are a direct function of its relatively low property values. As property values increase, the rates will go down--that has happened in many places already (your real property tax rate as a percentage of current value has gone done considerably if you have experience significant appreciation recently with no reassessment), and will happen in a dramatic fashion if the Allegheny County reassessment goes through;

(2) Being a "niche" city isn't much of a constraint in a country of over 300 million people, but as many have documented, "rust belt chic" is not such a small niche anymore. And in fact, it would just take a small diversion of people from the hyperexpensive, very populous Northeast coast cities to completely transform Pittsburgh.

Of course predictions are hard, particularly about the future (multiple attributions). But I really don't think there are sharp limits on what is possible in Pittsburgh over the next 20 years, say, depending on how various factors and trends align.