An illustration of labor force growth in the Pittsburgh MSA (a.k.a. what a "dying" MSA does not look like) (Bloomfield: rentals, insurance)

[globalburgh]

1) The data from 1990-2013 or even 2000-2013 is not very positive as a whole, but the more recent data (2010-13) looks to be more positive. Is this a result of people staying put in an economic downturn or has the tide changed?

My take: Starting in 2007 (not 2010) something changes in the data. Pittsburgh makes a break with the past trends. Relative to its own past, Pittsburgh looks dramatically improved. We know from the work of demographers such as William Frey that national geographic mobility is finally picking up pace. Along with it, Rust Belt outmigration should also return. The last year or so of labor force data for PGH suggests that's not the case in SW PA.

2) Pittsburgh is seeing an increase in younger residents, but why is the labor force increasing in size so much at the older age groups and shrinking at the younger age levels? Are recent college graduates working for a few years and then going to graduate school or leaving the area?

My take: The older demographic cohorts are aging in place. This is happening all over the country. The Boomers are nearing retirement. But Pittsburgh lost a lot of Gen X and Gen Y people because of the 80s exodus. The region does not have any "echo" boom. Look at the population numbers for youngest (pre-workforce) cohorts. If they just aged in place and didn't leave the region to go to college and there was no inmigration of college students, then Pittsburgh would have substantially less college-aged adults in residence. Doing a simple cohort analysis, we can infer that a lot of college students who grew up elsewhere are sticking around after graduation for at least 10-years (using 2000 and 2010 Census data).


3) The birth rates in Pittsburgh are still rather dismal. what effect will this have on the labor force?

My take: See above. Pittsburgh chronic state of natural decrease demands substantial net inmigration to fuel workforce growth.

4) The younger workforce in Pittsburgh is becoming more educated, does this match up with the recent and future job growth? In other words, is the job growth related to highly skilled jobs or low/moderately skilled jobs? Also, what is the saturation point for highly educated workers in the Pittsburgh job market?

My take: The TRWIB report referenced in those Trib-Review articles talk about the skills mismatching. The number of workers isn't the concern so much as it is the skills those workers have. Who is going to be the auto mechanic for all those new software engineers working in East Liberty? Nice problem to have.

5) Why is the Pittsburgh unemployment rate currently higher than the national average despite such a large increase in the labor force size?

My take: Job creation is struggling to keep up with labor force growth. Better question is why aren't frustrated workers leaving and the labor force numbers going down with unemployment so high?

6) PA currently has the highest cost for public higher education in the country, how does this impact the workforce and the area population? In other words, if recent college graduates have high levels of student loan debt do they have kids? purchase houses? spend money in the Pittsburgh economy? Also, I worry about potential students being priced out of higher education in PA and going elsewhere for college and staying there after graduation.

My take: Pittsburgh higher education is export oriented. Just look at the demographics. The prices are not deterring students from moving to the region to get an education.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by globalburgh

1)

My take: Starting in 2007 (not 2010) something changes in the data. Pittsburgh makes a break with the past trends. Relative to its own past, Pittsburgh looks dramatically improved. We know from the work of demographers such as William Frey that national geographic mobility is finally picking up pace. Along with it, Rust Belt outmigration should also return. The last year or so of labor force data for PGH suggests that's not the case in SW PA.

My take: The older demographic cohorts are aging in place. This is happening all over the country. The Boomers are nearing retirement. But Pittsburgh lost a lot of Gen X and Gen Y people because of the 80s exodus. The region does not have any "echo" boom. Look at the population numbers for youngest (pre-workforce) cohorts. If they just aged in place and didn't leave the region to go to college and there was no inmigration of college students, then Pittsburgh would have substantially less college-aged adults in residence. Doing a simple cohort analysis, we can infer that a lot of college students who grew up elsewhere are sticking around after graduation for at least 10-years (using 2000 and 2010 Census data).

My take: See above. Pittsburgh chronic state of natural decrease demands substantial net inmigration to fuel workforce growth.

I was in Philly over the weekend so I just saw this now, but I think we are definitely seeing the data differently. To your first point, it appears to me that you feel things started to turn around for the metro in 2007, where I believe that things started to turn around in 2010 or not at all. There is conflicting information available regarding this issue and while I agree that the population of the city and county are rising slightly, I am not sure if this is true for the entire metro. I posted this information in another thread.

In regards to your second point, I agree that many of the older workers are aging in place, but they are also staying in the workforce longer and this means less jobs available for recent college graduates. In terms of your thoughts on college students coming to Pittsburgh that is a given because of the high number of quality institutions of higher education in the region. However, producing highly educated people with no ties to the region and the ability to make more elsewhere could be problematic. As I have posted before, despite the increased education level of the workforce, the per capita income of Pittsburgh is just about average and the cost of living is rising. I am not saying that these schools need to focus on only Pittsburgh area students, but retaining the best and brightest from the region should be a priority of the city and more programs need to be developed to support this notion.

[Goodjules]

Pittsburgh was on AARP's list of best places to retire. I moved here in Dec and I'm 56 and hope to retire at 65. When I talk to people my age and older, many have heard how great Pittsburgh is for housing prices, things to do, and for retirees. Whether this translates to older people moving from other areas (like me) to Pittsburgh is another story. But, I would be interested to know if recent transplants are a percentage of the large numbers of aging workers in the data mentioned by other posters.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by track2514

In regards to your second point, I agree that many of the older workers are aging in place, but they are also staying in the workforce longer and this means less jobs available for recent college graduates.

Apparently, it's a national trend toward older workers staying on the jobs and younger ones not.

Undesirable trends in the labor force participation rate

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Moby Hick

Apparently, it's a national trend toward older workers staying on the jobs and younger ones not.

A lot of older workers lost their **** when the economy collapsed in 2008, so they'll likely be working until they either die or get laid off. They're squeezing out younger workers in the process.

[Goodjules]

Interesting article about up and coming American cities. It's by Joel Kotkin who is controversial. I don't always agree with him, but I think he makes a good argument as to why these cities in particular are growing and thriving. It isn't what I'd like to hear as I am hoping that denser cities with vibrant downtowns are the way of the future. Only time will tell.

Houston Rising

[pman]

whats happening in texas is remarkable. i think theres a danger to beleiving that dense cities have to succeed. pittsbuegh and philadelphia still need the state to fix the states nation leading corp income tax of. 9.99% or it will continue to drag the state down. on the bright side the cap stock tax is .89 down from. 12.5 in the mid. 90's and is schediled to be phased out next year. anyway the cost to build new housing matters. pittsburgh is cheaper to build new space than philly but its still more expensive tham houston and i suspect its not a space but regulatory/tax/union issue.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by pman

pittsburgh is cheaper to build new space than philly but its still more expensive tham houston and i suspect its not a space but regulatory/tax/union issue.

Then three cheers for regulations, taxes, unions. I have many complaints about them, but if they kept Pittsburgh from becoming like Houston, I'll learn to deal.

[SteelCityRising]

Very interesting discussion thus far. I think one of Pittsburgh's greatest challenges to overcome right now will be sluggish job creation. I just read an article that said Pittsburgh had the slowest job creation over the past year of the largest metro areas, which was very sobering. Coupled with older workers not retiring due to the economic collapse depleting their investment savings and a noticeable number of younger migrants moving here seeking work I really can foresee our concerning spike in the unemployment rate over the past year continuing to worsen. I really do wonder if an "underemployment rate" has been determined for Pittsburgh. Most people I know in our demographic are currently employed, but we're employed in positions that pay less in terms of real wages than our parents' generation earned when they were out of college. When you combine that with soaring student loan debt it's easy to see why the birth rate is on the decline. Only irresponsible people would have babies that they couldn't comfortably afford. Most in my parents' generation were buying homes and rearing children shortly after graduating college whereas nowadays people are delaying that to their 30s (or never).

I'm still bullish about Pittsburgh's long-term growth prospects; however, the above are all concerns that shouldn't be overshadowed.

[ML North]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

When you combine that with soaring student loan debt it's easy to see why the birth rate is on the decline.

Birth rates in the US -- and in nearly every other developed country in the world -- have been falling for hundreds of years, with the brief exception of the baby boom. It's a sign of prosperity; people no longer need fifteen children to help with the farm.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Only irresponsible people would have babies that they couldn't comfortably afford.

Boo.

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Most in my parents' generation were buying homes and rearing children shortly after graduating college whereas nowadays people are delaying that to their 30s (or never).

I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing. Homeownership is generally a mediocre financial investment, but it's one of the only asset classes in which our parents' generation has any significant wealth. Baby Boomers have very little amounts of cash and securities. Perhaps primary residences will comprise a slightly smaller portion of our generation's wealth, and I think that may be a good thing.