Baby boomers leaving jobs in Pittsburgh creating openings (Lancaster, Penn: real estate market, 2014)

[gg]

An interesting read. Pittsburgh sure seems to be changing.

Aging population gives way to job openings in Western Pennsylvania | TribLIVE

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by gg

An interesting read. Pittsburgh sure seems to be changing.

Aging population gives way to job openings in Western Pennsylvania | TribLIVE

While this is good, we should keep in mind that a lot of the remaining jobs in Western Pennsylvania are directly tied to personal service, rather than export. Some retirees will leave the region entirely, or cut back on their spending once they retire. And employers like nothing more than to use retirements as an excuse to not fill positions. Hence I wouldn't be surprised if the hiring boom isn't quite as large as we would like it to be.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by eschaton

While this is good, we should keep in mind that a lot of the remaining jobs in Western Pennsylvania are directly tied to personal service, rather than export. Some retirees will leave the region entirely, or cut back on their spending once they retire. And employers like nothing more than to use retirements as an excuse to not fill positions. Hence I wouldn't be surprised if the hiring boom isn't quite as large as we would like it to be.

But not every retirement will result in positions being eliminated, so even if there's not a "boom" in hiring, there will still be a relatively steady stream of new hires as the Baby Boomers age out of the workforce. The change will be gradual, and it'll affect the region's age profile more than anything else.

[Katarina Witt]

I thought the Boomers all (well, many anyway) left in the 80s. Hard to find stuff from back then on the internet; here's a modern story about it. Rust Belt Boy "a tale of six million Baby Boomers leaving the steel towns for work in less rusty places"

My brother, my cousins, my BFF and all her siblings, all left the area, for various reasons. We're all Boomers. My bro came back and some of his friends didn't leave. Many of my HS classmates left, far more than my husband's classmates left from Omaha, Nebraska. Didn't Pittsburgh lose 1/2 its population in the late 70s/80s? There are still about 1/2 million fewer people in the MSA than in 1970. More than 10,000 people a year left in the years 1977,1979, 1980, 81, 82, 83, 88, 97, 98, 99,2001, 04, 05, and 2006. More than 20,000 per year left in the years 1973, 74, 84, 85 (almost 40,000), 86, 87. Nearly 10,000 per year left in 1989, 91, 92, 96 and 2002. 1979-88 lost >10,000 people each year. These were all prime working years for the older Boomers. Who's left?
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/p...ttsburgh%2C_PA

[charisb]

Well somebody stayed behind as my neighborhood is full of native Pittsburghers in their 60s. ;-)
Seriously, though, cool data. What happened in 1992 that brought international migration?

[Geeo]

The MSA population in 1970 was 2,689,000 and in 2014 was 2,355,968, so roughly 300,000 fewer in 44 years. The city population was 676,000 in 1950 and about 305,000 in 2014, or 371,000 fewer.

It's true that the hemmoraging started in the 70s but really accelerated during the de-industrialization of the 1980s. There was an editorial in the P-G in the mid-80s when the steel implosion was still at its peak that we were losing a whole generation of people in their 30s and 40s who had to leave to find work and that it would be a problem for years to come. The people who left meant that they didn't have kids here, which created the hole that we are starting to come out of demographically now.

[bluecarebear]

This article is speculative and Western PA is in a population decline. Teachers are a prime example. Yes, we will have retirees but there are far more grads produced every year than are or will be positions available. We also have shrinking school districts.

Maybe some fields will see growth but others won't.

I have always wondered what will happen to the rural counties' real estate markets when the boomers either retire or pass away. There are many counties where the median age is in the late 40s.

[bradjl2009]

I have plenty of baby boomer aged relatives in my family, the only person in my family who left the area in fact was a member of Gen X.

[MamieRose]

Originally Posted by bluecarebear

Teachers are a prime example. Yes, we will have retirees but there are far more grads produced every year than are or will be positions available.

People graduating from PA colleges and universities with degrees in education have declined by 62% since 2012 as per PDE. Other estimates are even higher. We are currently experiencing a national teacher shortage, a local substitute shortage and will have difficulty filling future openings with quality candidates.

Lancaster County will feel shortage of classroom teachers in less than two years | Local News | lancasteronline.com

[captainmidnight]

Originally Posted by bluecarebear

This article is speculative and Western PA is in a population decline. Teachers are a prime example. Yes, we will have retirees but there are far more grads produced every year than are or will be positions available. We also have shrinking school districts.

Maybe some fields will see growth but others won't.

I have always wondered what will happen to the rural counties' real estate markets when the boomers either retire or pass away. There are many counties where the median age is in the late 40s.

I thought I read somewhere (maybe here?) that the Pittsburgh area has the least amount of 5-15 year olds in the country (or world) for a large city. Is that right? or am I confusing it with something else?