U.S. Census reduces Pittsburgh region's latest population estimate (Bethel Park: top neighborhoods, homes)

[Goinback2011]

"As of July 1, 2017, the city's estimated population dropped to 302,407, the new data show. That's 2,610 fewer than the estimate released in 2016."

"The populations of most Allegheny County municipalities declined, but there were some exceptions.

The 2017 population estimate for Bethel Park increased by 555 residents to 32,404. Franklin Park's estimate also grew by about 101 residents to 14,552."

http://triblive.com/local/allegheny/...ation-estimate

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

"As of July 1, 2017, the city's estimated population dropped to 302,407, the new data show. That's 2,610 fewer than the estimate released in 2016."

"The populations of most Allegheny County municipalities declined, but there were some exceptions.

The 2017 population estimate for Bethel Park increased by 555 residents to 32,404. Franklin Park's estimate also grew by about 101 residents to 14,552."

U.S. Census reduces Pittsburgh region's latest population estimate | TribLIVE

As I said elsewhere on city data, the biggest cause of our drop in population by far was the closing of the SCI prison facility on the North Side, which cut 1900+ residents out of the city total.

Also, the 2016 estimate was increased by 1,392, meaning the city actually is projected to have grown that year now.

[sandritz6]

Yeah it seems like many municipalities across our region are doing well in terms of housing growth. However, housing growth is not always comparable with population growth. It looks like even Cranberry barely grew this year. So it seems like what it probably is that many younger and older people alike are moving south. Does anyone else know what to think here?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by sandritz6

Yeah it seems like many municipalities across our region are doing well in terms of housing growth. However, housing growth is not always comparable with population growth. It looks like even Cranberry barely grew this year. So it seems like what it probably is that many younger and older people alike are moving south. Does anyone else know what to think here?

The way the ACS does this surveys typically is as follows.

1. They come up with a rough estimate of the population growth/decline in municipalities by dividing the total growth/decline of the county in proportion to each municipality.

2. They then contact all group quarters (colleges, prisons, army bases, nursing homes) to see if the population has changed from the prior year.

3. Finally, they modify each municipal estimate based upon the unit count of new housing permits for the year.

As I said, Pittsburgh's group quarters was down significantly due to the closure of SCI. I know that we have had a disproportionately large proportion of total permits (1,714 out of Allegheny County's total of 3,443 in 2017) but the Census can sometimes be spotty in keeping track of these.

[sandritz6]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The way the ACS does this surveys typically is as follows.

1. They come up with a rough estimate of the population growth/decline in municipalities by dividing the total growth/decline of the county in proportion to each municipality.

2. They then contact all group quarters (colleges, prisons, army bases, nursing homes) to see if the population has changed from the prior year.

3. Finally, they modify each municipal estimate based upon the unit count of new housing permits for the year.

As I said, Pittsburgh's group quarters was down significantly due to the closure of SCI. I know that we have had a disproportionately large proportion of total permits (1,714 out of Allegheny County's total of 3,443 in 2017) but the Census can sometimes be spotty in keeping track of these.

Yeah that makes sense. It seems like for the counties as a whole the estimates are probably pretty accurate but you may find when the 2020 census comes around, some municipalities may do a little better or worse than the estimates are showing. For example, in Westmoreland County, the estimates have been showing the townships losing as much as the run down towns.

[gg]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

"As of July 1, 2017, the city's estimated population dropped to 302,407, the new data show. That's 2,610 fewer than the estimate released in 2016."

"The populations of most Allegheny County municipalities declined, but there were some exceptions.

The 2017 population estimate for Bethel Park increased by 555 residents to 32,404. Franklin Park's estimate also grew by about 101 residents to 14,552."

U.S. Census reduces Pittsburgh region's latest population estimate | TribLIVE

Wow, I hope we get Amazon. Geez, we sure don't grow at all. Will we hit under 300K soon?

[PGH423]

Originally Posted by sandritz6

Yeah it seems like many municipalities across our region are doing well in terms of housing growth. However, housing growth is not always comparable with population growth. It looks like even Cranberry barely grew this year. So it seems like what it probably is that many younger and older people alike are moving south. Does anyone else know what to think here?

In addition to the prison issue mentioned, we also have a higher natural death rate than comparable cities due to a disproportionate number of older residents. Eventually this won't be a problem.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by PGH423

In addition to the prison issue mentioned, we also have a higher natural death rate than comparable cities due to a disproportionate number of older residents. Eventually this won't be a problem.

Haven't people been using this excuse since like 1990 to explain our continuous population decline? At what point will all the old people finally die? 2050?

[SteelCityRising]

What I take from this is that the Southern Hilltop neighborhoods, the western City Council District 2 (perhaps sans Mt. Washington), and the outer North Side neighborhoods are still sharting the bed more quickly than the limited growth in the "hotter" areas can replenish them.

Also interesting to note is that Cincinnati, which is growing, will likely pass us in population in 2018, and given current trends we'll be under 300,000 residents by 2020. The fact that everyone on here just "spins" that and shrugs stuns me.

2017 Cincinnati: 301,301
2017 Pittsburgh: 302,407

It's not like our population loss is having the "added benefit" of less congestion or anything. I've just noticed higher rents, more traffic, more urban sprawl, and more crowded stores and restaurants since I moved here in 2010 despite the population loss, so I don't see what supposed "benefit" we're getting from the population loss.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

...so I don't see what supposed "benefit" we're getting from the population loss.

it's not good - you need tax payers to help keep this patchwork of roads up and running.