When do you all think Pittsburgh will start increasing in population? (McKeesport: to live, moving to)

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by _Buster

The baby boom did have an effect on the population in 1950 and thus the census, because it started right after WW2. And before mass migration to suburbs was in full force. At that time Pittsburgh was pretty overcrowded. Since its only 55 sq miles in city limits , the on-paper pop density was about 12,300 per sq. mile, but the realistic local population densities were much higher, because much of the land in Pittsburgh city limits was not residential-- but office, commercial, industrial, government, cultural, educational, public land, and very steep hillsides that were not developable. People didn't want to live in the overcrowded conditions.

It's worth noting that Pittsburgh's population growth during the 1930s and 1940s was very low (about 1% over a 20-year period). The only thing that stopped Pittsburgh's population from beginning to shrink after the 1920s there was still enough relatively recently annexed land on the fringes of the city (Summer Hill, Lincoln Place, Overbrook, etc) that it canceled out declines in the core. But areas like South Side had been continually shedding population since 1900 - not that surprising considering the urban core began shifting to being less residential as the mills expanded, and family size had already begun to fall.

[Joe_P]

The 30s through WW2 was an odd time with the Depression and the war. It's hard to read into migration patterns of that time. That said, post war, was the beginnings of a realignment of migration for sure.

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting that Pittsburgh's population growth during the 1930s and 1940s was very low (about 1% over a 20-year period). The only thing that stopped Pittsburgh's population from beginning to shrink after the 1920s there was still enough relatively recently annexed land on the fringes of the city (Summer Hill, Lincoln Place, Overbrook, etc) that it canceled out declines in the core. But areas like South Side had been continually shedding population since 1900 - not that surprising considering the urban core began shifting to being less residential as the mills expanded, and family size had already begun to fall.

Good post!

Pittsburgh’s last decade of growth was really the 1920s. The census in 1930 was 669K, ten years later in 1940 the census was 671K and then in 1950 the population was 676K. From 1930 to 1950 the city added roughly 8,000 residents. Most of which were due to the last tiny annexation of a few neighborhoods. Pittsburgh’s population was flat or in slight decline since 1931. From 1951 onward the city population plummeted downward 70k residents by 1960. We all know the trends that have happened since.

We are basically at 90+ years of population Stagnation/ slight decline accelerated to steep decline in the city limits.

Allegheny County peaked in population for the 1960 census at 1,625,000. The suburbs were growing at a huge pace to offset steep losses in the city limits. Then Allegheny County population declined and plummeted between 1970 and present day 2019.

I think it would be so hard to reverse the current population trends unless we reached an equilibrium with deaths and births. If the 2020 census is worse than what we were predicting there is a good chance Pittsburgh slips below 250K and the county below or at 1.1 million in the next 20-30 years. I say that because if this is the best Pittsburgh can do during a strong national economy there isn’t much more that can be done. Pittsburgh would have to work miracles and create jobs faster than pretty much every other region in the country. What is the likelihood of that happening?

[KoNgFooCj]

Hopefully more people old people move down south like they're already doing in large numbers. I'm genuinely interested to see what effect the massive amounts of boomers moving south will do to those states economies. I'm particularly interested to see how Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina deal with it.

[Joe_P]

Predicting either the city or country (or metro) trends over the coming years is not easily done.
Demographics are changing, as are other factors.

The city population's decline % has dropped the last few decades and the drop so far this decade is less than 2%.

Pittsburgh overall is complicated.

What's not complicated are the smaller fringe industrial towns which will continue to decline, whether it be the Mon Valley, the Beaver Valley or Steubenville and Weirton. There are simply no factors changing their trajectory.

[xdv8]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

What's not complicated are the smaller fringe industrial towns which will continue to decline, whether it be the Mon Valley, the Beaver Valley or Steubenville and Weirton. There are simply no factors changing their trajectory.

Those places are desperate, indeed. They only have proximity to Pittsburgh as their asset, but they barely even have that. They went from being decent places that could stand on their own to burbs for the most tax averse commuters. These places would die completely if they couldn't leech of job centers.

[tyovan4]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

What's not complicated are the smaller fringe industrial towns which will continue to decline, whether it be the Mon Valley, the Beaver Valley or Steubenville and Weirton. There are simply no factors changing their trajectory.

Originally Posted by xdv8

Those places are desperate, indeed. They only have proximity to Pittsburgh as their asset, but they barely even have that. They went from being decent places that could stand on their own to burbs for the most tax averse commuters. These places would die completely if they couldn't leech of job centers.

You're either a troll or an elitist snob with your nose so far up in the air that you can no longer see reality.
A place like the Mon Valley =/= a place like Cranberry.

People don't voluntarily move to deprived, economically depressed areas because they want a lower tax burden. They move there because that's where they can afford to live, or they're trapped there by poverty or by family ties.

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

You're either a troll or an elitist snob with your nose so far up in the air that you can no longer see reality.
A place like the Mon Valley =/= a place like Cranberry.

People don't voluntarily move to deprived, economically depressed areas because they want a lower tax burden. They move there because that's where they can afford to live, or they're trapped there by poverty or by family ties.

And when the census numbers come out next year it will most likely show losses for the entire city , where maybe a few east end neighborhoods added a couple hundred or a thousand residents. Not enough to stave of declines in the rest of the city. Meanwhile the growth will be in the northern suburbs, down the I-79 corridor, airport area west and extending to Canonsburg. But yeah I keep forgetting how bad the suburbs suck and nobody wants to live there.

[xdv8]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

You're either a troll or an elitist snob with your nose so far up in the air that you can no longer see reality.
A place like the Mon Valley =/= a place like Cranberry.

People don't voluntarily move to deprived, economically depressed areas because they want a lower tax burden. They move there because that's where they can afford to live, or they're trapped there by poverty or by family ties.

People often move to Weirton or Stuebenville but work in Pittsburgh to avoid PA or Allegheny County taxes. Kinda similar to a big reason Cranberry has grown from fields to strip malls. Mon Valley doesn't fit, but nice job picking up that example and trying to attack me.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by xdv8

People often move to Weirton or Stuebenville but work in Pittsburgh to avoid PA or Allegheny County taxes. Kinda similar to a big reason Cranberry has grown from fields to strip malls. Mon Valley doesn't fit, but nice job picking up that example and trying to attack me.

Make Allegheny County/Pittsburgh a more desirable place to live and people will live there.

Don’t tell anyone but here in Cranberry we’d pay more for taxes, but we don’t have to.