When do you all think Pittsburgh will start increasing in population? (Erie: townhomes, tech job)

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

...and it's back to the straw men.

In 2019 Pennsylvania is 44 out of 50 in job growth. West Virginia is much higher and has added the highest percentage of jobs.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stat...nd-dc-of-36-36

[Knepper3]

I'm not saying this is the case but it is easier to have job growth when you start with less jobs.

[Joe_P]

I'm not saying this is the case but it is easier to have job growth when you start with less jobs.

Exactly. It's no secret that PA isn't leading in job creation, but WV has a tiny population and a terrible economy. Any change is an easy significant % change.

[sandritz6]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

Exactly. It's no secret that PA isn't leading in job creation, but WV has a tiny population and a terrible economy. Any change is an easy significant % change.

Yeah I sort of think if there's a lot of positive change in West Virginia. It probably comes from Morgantown and the eastern panhandle, those seem to be the only big growing areas in the whole state. PA has the entire more southeastern part of the state growing with help from State College and pockets around Pittsburgh so I would think it would be slightly more ahead of WV.

[KoNgFooCj]

I'm going to give a final guess as to what Pittsburgh's population will be in 2025 and 2030. I really wish I had the 2020 census numbers but here goes nothing.

2025 estimate ~ 306,000

2030 estimate ~ 319,000

This is just based off hope and what's theoretically probable. Obviously there is the real possibility that Pittsburgh's population may still be decreasing in 2025. I think however, if the city just isn't growing because new residents are being offset by deaths, then by 2025 , that should even out.

With the first half of the baby boomers being at least 70 in 2025, we're going to start losing them at a fast enough rate to be offset by newcomers taking advantage of Pittsburgh's growing tech, med, and ed job sectors, along with the lower cost of living.

A good chunk of old-timers are probably moving south or thinking of moving south anyway.

[pittsburghaccuweather]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

I'm going to give a final guess as to what Pittsburgh's population will be in 2025 and 2030. I really wish I had the 2020 census numbers but here goes nothing.

2025 estimate ~ 306,000

2030 estimate ~ 319,000

This is just based off hope and what's theoretically probable. Obviously there is the real possibility that Pittsburgh's population may still be decreasing in 2025. I think however, if the city just isn't growing because new residents are being offset by deaths, then by 2025 , that should even out.

With the first half of the baby boomers being at least 70 in 2025, we're going to start losing them at a fast enough rate to be offset by newcomers taking advantage of Pittsburgh's growing tech, med, and ed job sectors, along with the lower cost of living.

A good chunk of old-timers are probably moving south or thinking of moving south anyway.

Population growth in the city is going to be difficult. I think a lot of people on this board have a difficult time wrapping their heads around the likelihood of decline happening for the foreseeable future as opposed to growth. If Pittsburgh is maintaining population at equilibrium it is highly likely Allegheny county is adding 15 to 20K new residents up from census 2010. You have to take into account the size of the Pittsburgh metro area and the size of the city in relation to the rest of the metro.

Realistically the metro would have to be adding 10s of thousands of new residents every year. While hoping a large percentage of those residents are choosing the city over the rest of Allegheny county suburbs or the surrounding counties.

There is no evidence to suggest that is happening. You would need cranberry and airport area growth combined and probably double that to at least be breaking even in the city. Offsetting the births vs deaths and 50 percent of college students that leave.

Look at census 2010. The south side flats had a huge influx of new and renovated homes during that decade. It is densely populated and the neighborhood grew by 15 percent, which was adding between 700 and 800 residents. That is a big number for a neighborhood of 5,500, but had very little impact on the rest of the city which overall declined by 8.6 percent and lost over 28,000 residents.

You prediction is more based on hope than estimates and facts available. While I think a Lawrenceville or east liberty will grow by 8-15 percent it won’t be enough or not even close to stave off declines elsewhere. I don’t think people have a good pulse on the 70 other neighborhoods and how they are doing. Because they are never talked about. Even people on here as Pittsburgh boosters admitted in a tactful and nice way they are undesirable areas of the city. And yes we have a lot more undesirable than desirable neighborhoods in the city. Marshall Shadeland had 6,000 residents in 2010, Sheridan had over 5,000. If you look at those two neighborhoods does anybody think the few neighborhoods in the east end is addding enough residents to offset declines in just those two neighborhoods? Prison population accounts for population as well. The penitentiary closed along the Ohio River. That is at least a few hundred to maybe 2,000 residents accounting for Marshall Shadeland population.

At the end we are hoping the east end growth is tremendous and the 70ther neighborhoods aren’t in a population free fall and breaking even. If the city loses less than 15K residents that is a huge victory.

I think the finally tally will be between 18-30K residents lost over the decade. You are looking at a city population from a high mark in the 290s to a low in the 270s I think. Decline and growth always seems to be underestimated. They were off by 8,000 on Pittsburgh and over 15,000 on Cleveland for census estimates before the final population count was tallied in 2010.

I expect Pittsburgh metro growth along the I-79 corridor from zelienople/ cranberry down to canonsburg and west past the airport. My guess is this area adds thousands of residents combined, but not enough to stave off declines happening in the city or rest of the metro. This corridor is diversifying with energy, logistics and now high tech jobs with the GE additive facility near the airport and self driving cars going to be researched in south Fayette.

[SteelCityRising]

My prediction: We'll be at 300,400 residents in 2020.

Will we dip below 300,000 in estimates during the 2020's? Perhaps.

Will we be above or below 300,000 in 2030? I don't know.

I think our population decline is certainly starting to level off/bottom out, though. I just don't think we'll be seeing any rapid or even moderate growth in the city limits anytime soon. Psychologically it will be tough to see our city's population <300,000, just as it's tough seeing Erie at <100,000 people or Johnstown at <20,000.

The entirety of Western PA has very little incoming international immigration, and those immigrants that DO arrive tend to be very well-educated. Very educated people tend to have fewer children than poorly educated people. We still have way too many old people living in Western PA. They'll continue to die off, and our death rate will continue to exceed our birth rate for that reason.

In the city proper pittsburghaccuweather is 100% correct. We never talk about the Sheradens or the Marshall-Shadelands or the Beltzhoovers or the Lincoln-Lemingtons or the Homewoods or Perry North on this board. Those neighborhoods (and many others) are still in population freefall, and the neighborhoods in our city that ARE seeing growth (Strip District, South Shore, Troy Hill, Shadyside, Lawrenceville, Downtown, The Oaklands, East Liberty, etc.) still aren't growing quickly enough to compensate.

Then we have neighborhoods like Allegheny West and Polish Hill that show that neighborhoods can and do improve while still declining in population.

If we have ~1/4 of our neighborhoods growing moderately, ~1/2 of our neighborhoods in various states of population decline, and ~1/4 of our neighborhoods that have stagnated, then, no, our city isn't going to be growing overall.

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Very educated people tend to have fewer children than poorly educated people. We still have way too many old people living in Western PA. They'll continue to die off, and our death rate will continue to exceed our birth rate for that reason.

What's too many? Sounds like your prejudiced against my kind. And you can't wait until we die. I would think that someone who has been discriminated his whole life would be more "woke". Shame on you, you Amish Jagoff!

[tyovan4]

Originally Posted by Copanut

What's too many? Sounds like your prejudiced against my kind. And you can't wait until we die. I would think that someone who has been discriminated his whole life would be more "woke". Shame on you, you Amish Jagoff!

He's from near Scranton originally, IIRC.
I, however, was raised in Lancaster County.
If anybody on this subforum is an Amish jagoff, its me

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

He's from near Scranton originally, IIRC.
I, however, was raised in Lancaster County.
If anybody on this subforum is an Amish jagoff, its me

Correct. I'm a lowly beet farmer named Dwight Schrute. A simple "strappin' young lad" like Joe Biden.