'Bright Flight' - From the Suburbs (Pittsburgh, Liberty: college, living in, price)

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

There are just a lot of people out there who have paid a lot of money, or made other compromises in their life, to buy into nice suburbs with good schools. These shifting trends threaten their economic interests, and indeed call into question the sacrifices they have made.

I don't follow, what compromise did I make to move from a city apt to buying a house in the suburbs? If I were to move back into the city my overall taxes would go up by 10K.

As to the trend of moving back into the city, show me the stats.

[bradjl2009]

I don't see this happening as much as in other parts of the city because the suburbs here have much better schools and the Pittsburgh Metro is more compact in how far the suburbs go out compared to many other parts of the country.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Katiana

Many charter schools fail b/c parents don't know how to run schools, much as many think they do.

Charters have a mixed record, it is true, although some have been a success. But in any event, the point is that they are one of many mechanisms by which parents can speed along school change. Indeed, even where charters fail they can help push traditional public schools to be more active in responding to changing circumstances.

I said I was responding to the so-called "uniqueness" of Pittsburgh's neighborhoods, which is untrue. You didn't say Pittsburgh neighborhood situation was unique?

What we said was relatively unique in Pittsburgh was the AFFORDABILITY of many of Pittsburgh's central walkable neighborhoods. You are not free to pretend we said something different.

The average rent in Cap Hill is $588. That's less than I've heard a lot of people quote in Pittsburgh.

You are also not free to pretend we were talking about rents, as opposed to property prices. Pittsburgh has a relatively rational relationship between property prices and rents, and so it doesn't have quite the same pricing advantage when it comes to rents. Even so, $588 would still be higher on average than neighborhoods like Lawrenceville and Bloomfield, so you are still making our point for us.

We were all, well, almost all, part of the counterculture in the late 60s.

No, you weren't. Lots of young people at the time never associated themselves with any counterculture movements. You are just speaking for yourself and your social circle.

I know a lot of young people today, as I have kids and nieces and nephews in their 20s. They have friends. They are getting into their home-buying years, and they aren't all choosing the city.

Again, this is not an issue where anecdotes are necessary or helpful. There is plenty of relevant data available.

You got in your little dig all the while claiming that "perhaps that didn't apply to me".

This conversation isn't all about you. You referenced some conversation you were having elsewhere about the relevant article in which some people were reacting negatively, and I noted that discussions of these trends frequently draw negative reactions and denials from people with vested interests in the status quo. I don't know what you personally said in those conversations, and I don't particularly care. Again, we are talking about broad trends, not your personal lifestory.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Copanut

I don't follow, what compromise did I make to move from a city apt to buying a house in the suburbs? If I were to move back into the city my overall taxes would go up by 10K.

I'd have to see what you are considering comparable properties to verify that claim. But in any event, taxes are only one part of the financial picture (e.g., transportation costs on average are higher the farther out you go), and financial issues are only one part of the total picture (e.g., commute times have a profound influence on happiness because they cut into very valuable non-work time; then you have non-purely-self-interested issues like environmental concerns, and so forth).

That said, you as an individual may well not have made any compromises at all. Again, this isn't about particular individuals, it is about broader trends.

As to the trend of moving back into the city, show me the stats.

You can start with this recent report:

The State of Metropolitan America - Brookings Institution

If you are more into stories, here is an article about the "baby boom" in Manhattan, which is being replicated in many cities:

The Manhattan Baby Boom - The Empire Zone Blog - NYTimes.com

If you want stats on the City of Pittsburgh specifically, here are some I compiled a little while ago:

//www.city-data.com/forum/pitts...l#post10874195

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I don't see this happening as much as in other parts of the city because the suburbs here have much better schools and the Pittsburgh Metro is more compact in how far the suburbs go out compared to many other parts of the country.

I certainly think it is artificial to draw the line at the City of Pittsburgh's boundaries, and some of the inner suburbs may well be beneficiaries of the same effects. But I don't think that changes the overall picture I sketched above: it is not that all the suburbs will be bad, but rather that most of the City will likely become part of the "good" areas, and the most notable "bad" areas will move somewhere into the suburbs. But again, most of the suburbs will likely remain "good" areas.

I'd quibble with your comment about schools, by the way. If you adjusted properly for the makeup of the student body, the City of Pittsburgh School District would score well above average in the region. And I think they are well-positioned to further improve.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I certainly think it is artificial to draw the line at the City of Pittsburgh's boundaries, and some of the inner suburbs may well be beneficiaries of the same effects. But I don't think that changes the overall picture I sketched above: it is not that all the suburbs will be bad, but rather that most of the City will likely become part of the "good" areas, and the most notable "bad" areas will move somewhere into the suburbs. But again, most of the suburbs will likely remain "good" areas.

I'd quibble with your comment about schools, by the way. If you adjusted properly for the makeup of the student body, the City of Pittsburgh School District would score well above average in the region. And I think they are well-positioned to further improve.

I hope so, I think the Pittsburgh promise will do a lot to keep the middle class in Pittsburgh from moving to the suburbs. If I did have to bet on a suburbs becoming "bad" it would have to be Penn Hills since it has been declining for years now while other bad areas may be the areas that are already bad or just "ok".

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I hope so, I think the Pittsburgh promise will do a lot to keep the middle class in Pittsburgh from moving to the suburbs.

That's a good program. They have also been opening more magnet programs/schools, and they have a big Gates Foundation grant to work with.

If I did have to bet on a suburbs becoming "bad" it would have to be Penn Hills since it has been declining for years now while other bad areas may be the areas that are already bad or just "ok".

Yeah, I'm not sure how many areas necessarily need to decline a lot to fulfill this vision--for example, lots of the old steel towns on the rivers are in pretty bad shape, and unfortunately I'm not sure the farther-out ones are all going to make it.

[siennagreen]

We're coming back. We're absolutely those people that the stats are talking about. I have three young school age children and everyone things we're nuts, but let me say why we're making the move. We want neighbors that don't drive in their driveway, press a button from inside their car, drive in their garage and disapear from site. Never to relate, smile, gripe, or annoy us. I want my kids to have friends that don't all have their own i-phones at 10. (because how will jane call for a ride after her XYZ competition) I want to go to a Parent Teacher conference and not feel like I am back in high school again and the jockeying for skinniest, prettiest, wealthiest, and most popular is not only happening among the kids...but the parents. These are our kids people...all of them matter for our collective future! I want to make a difference and I want to raise my children to value thoughtfulness, change, variety, and hard work. It's been hard to do here - for us.

I guess I have found the suburbs and the "suburb lifestyle" to be incredibly shallow. Yes, it's a stereotype, but I bought the dream. I thought success was a big house, a nice yard, well dressed/well mannered kids (I really blew that one and working hard so we can take a big vacation and post all of our fabulous pictures all over facebook. Well, I feel like I sold out. I'm far from the only one. I do believe that we will see a massive shift for a wide variey of reasons- environmental, relational, communal, et cet. I just hope that we can do so in such a manner as not to disturb and price out the people who have been there for generations as I have seen in some large cities already.

[gameguy56]

Originally Posted by siennagreen

I do believe that we will see a massive shift for a wide variey of reasons- environmental, relational, communal, et cet. I just hope that we can do so in such a manner as not to disturb and price out the people who have been there for generations as I have seen in some large cities already.

Pittsburgh has lots of room, it's population is down over 50% from it's peak in 1950. There are plenty of houses from huge East Liberty/Friendship Mansions to cute little Greenfield row homes that could certainly use a little bit of loving

[jimmyev]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

You are also not free to pretend we were talking about rents, as opposed to property prices. Pittsburgh has a relatively rational relationship between property prices and rents, and so it doesn't have quite the same pricing advantage when it comes to rents.

Did you mean an irrational relationship between property prices and rents? It's the only place I know of where 15-year mortgage payments with no down are $180 a month and rents for the same house are $800 a month. Completely unsustainable market. And pretty unique.