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You underestimate the satisfaction and support for President Obama (seen a recent poll?).
Also, state contests are an entirely different bag of worms than a national election.
I don't put much stock in a poll to determine the outcome of a race more than a year away.
You have swerved into the truth about the states however, with the Republicans gaining in state houses and the census favoring red states, that does provide an advantage for Republicans in 2012.
Location: By the sea, by the sea, by the beautiful sea
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shorebaby
You underestimate the dissatisfaction with Obama. Anyone, short of Palin, would unify the party and attract independents. We saw in the midterm with the same dynamic, that the Dems got crushed.
On Jan 5th a couple of weeks before Obama entered office the average price of a gal of gas was 1.68.
Well, I certainly don't remember gas prices falling so far from the peak of over $4.00 a gallon during the summer of 2008. But the data is the data, so there you have it.
In any case, I'm not sure that people will remember the lows as much as they remember the highs. So from a high of over $4.00 in 2008 to an estimated $3.50 in 2012 seems like a bargain in the works.
And this has what to do with the President, exactly?
Gas prices are driven by supply (which is controlled by OPEC), instability in countries that supply oil (haven't seen any of that lately, have we??), and refinerty disruptions due to anything from a hurricane to a shutdown for upgrades/maintenance. Maybe I'm just not smart enough- but please show me how the President affects any of those items.....
He doesn't,but I used to live in a {D} stronghold and if I had a dime for family and friends who blamed Bush for gas prices and how he was in bed with big oil I would be semi rich. I agree with your take and could add more reasons on what drives oil prices, but to be considerate of the OP it is not the topic of the thread.
I don't put much stock in a poll to determine the outcome of a race more than a year away.
You have swerved into the truth about the states however, with the Republicans gaining in state houses and the census favoring red states, that does provide an advantage for Republicans in 2012.
I wouldn't be too sure about that. I think it will depend a lot on how well state economies recover over the next 18 months.
While the Republicans have gained seats, they have also gained responsibility. And it's a tricky situation to be in for them. If they follow through with their promises to cut the budget (state level, I'm talking about), there will always be people upset that their slice of the pie got cut. And if they don't follow through and no budget cutting gets done, there will be a lot of people upset at their hollow promises.
How soon you forget that while Republicans controlled all 3 branches of government and engaged us in 2 wars in a major oil-producing part of the world, causing tension and worries over peak oil, oil prices soared to nearly $150/barrel.
And how soon you forget (or perhaps didn't know in the first place), that the Bush near-Depression Recession caused a severe reduction in demand, which caused the price of oil to plummet back to pre-war levels temporarily. These were the prices we were seeing when President Obama was sworn in. So I think it's downright hilarious that some are attempting to "give credit" to Bush or the Republicans for low gas prices at the beginning of President Obama's term.
The market is now stabilizing due to economic recovery world-wide and the end of the war in Iraq. What we're seeing is where gas prices would have naturally gravitated to on a steady graph without the instability of the market and a world-wide economic crash.
The election is 21 months away. Far too early for any big bold projections. A lot can happen in the meantime.
At this point in 2007, almost everybody thought the 2008 race would be Giuliani vs Clinton.
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