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Old 03-04-2011, 08:51 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,370,064 times
Reputation: 7627

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
I would point out that because Clinton changed how unemployment was calculated in in 1994 to save his ass in the '96 Election, once someone gets discouraged and stops looking for work, or is forced to take a part time job because no full time jobs are available, they are no longer counted as unemployed.
WRONG!

The claim that "Clinton changed how unemployment was calculated in in 1994 to save his ass in the '96 Election" as if somehow that change lowered the UE rate is BOGUS. The change that year to BLS methodology was START COUNTING "discouraged workers" in a new UE rate (the U-6 UE rate). Prior to that such folks were not counted AT ALL - so the change Clinton made was to START counting them - not to STOP counting them. From then on they WERE COUNTED in the U-6 rate rather than simply IGNORED (as had been PREVIOUSLY the case). Such folks had NEVER been included AT ALL in ANY UE rate.

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp - broken link)

Ken
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Old 03-04-2011, 08:53 AM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,567 posts, read 21,898,582 times
Reputation: 2519
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Prior to that such folks were not counted AT ALL -

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp - broken link)

Ken
Which of your links shows this to be the case?
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Old 03-04-2011, 08:58 AM
 
8,104 posts, read 3,970,185 times
Reputation: 3070
Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
Yes, A job and a paycheck, is not a human right.
This is what happens when you let someone else dictate your worth and your destiny.
For the best interest of the nation.
The CEO-Shareholder model is dead


The best way to raise wages and to restore some normalcy is to reduce the workforce and boot out the illegals.

If we could have a one time donation of land to people to work in a farming community to, where they become self sufficient, with no taxes to pay for the land, and no money given either, it might work. Problem is, that the fascist corps would cry to the government and make up something such as health code violations to shut them down.

They need a plentiful worker base groveling at their feet in order to lower wages and benefits
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Old 03-04-2011, 08:58 AM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,567 posts, read 21,898,582 times
Reputation: 2519
Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Gringo View Post
Only Gallup is screwed.


The real unemployment figure: 8.9%

February jobs report: Unemployment falls as hiring picks up - Mar. 4, 2011
Gallup doesn't seasonally adjust the figures...
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Old 03-04-2011, 08:59 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,370,064 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Because the BLS seasonably adjusts the numbers and tweaks them
The BLS ALSO collects and posts "NOT seasonally adjusted" (ie "raw" numbers) - for those who want to see them.

Employment Situation Summary

Ken
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Old 03-04-2011, 09:00 AM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,213,074 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
WRONG!

The claim that "Clinton changed how unemployment was calculated in in 1994 to save his ass in the '96 Election" as if somehow that change lowered the UE rate is BOGUS. The change that year to BLS methodology was START COUNTING "discouraged workers" in a new UE rate (the U-6 UE rate). Prior to that such folks were not counted AT ALL - so the change Clinton made was to START counting them - not to STOP counting them. From then on they WERE COUNTED in the U-6 rate rather than simply IGNORED (as had been PREVIOUSLY the case). Such folks had NEVER been included AT ALL in ANY UE rate.

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp - broken link)

Ken
Seems others disagree with you
True Unemployment Rate Higher Than Reported (http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/sectors-mainmenu-46/667 - broken link)

But I dont know enough to decide who is correct..

It does beg the question.. When I make payroll, I have to report who I paid, how much they paid, and send payroll taxes into the state.. Why arent they calculated off actual payroll statistics instead of just random surveys?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
The BLS ALSO collects and posts "NOT seasonally adjusted" (ie "raw" numbers) - for those who want to see them.

Employment Situation Summary

Ken
Yes but we are discussing the percentage they publish.. which is based off the seasonally adjusted figures..
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Old 03-04-2011, 09:04 AM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,823 posts, read 23,488,583 times
Reputation: 6541
Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
Energy and food prices skyrocketing and a stagnant economy with increasing unemployment, isn't this what we used to call Carternomics?

Well, in any case, we're all screwed...

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
Consider the source.

According to the US Department of Labor the unemployment rate in February was 8.9%.

Source: The U.S. Department of Labor Home Page (http://www.dol.gov/ - broken link)
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Old 03-04-2011, 09:05 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,370,064 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by oz in SC View Post
Which of your links shows this to be the case?
Look at the numbers here:

The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp - broken link)

No significant change in 1994 when suddenly the discouraged workers were supposed stripped from the UE count. If that had been the case there would have been a huge drop - and there is no significant drop at all. Even in a GOOD economy the U-6 number is roughly twice the standard (U-3) unemployment rate, consequently stripping those folks out of the U-3 number would have resulted in the U-3 UE rate suddenly dropping to half of what it was - and that simply didn't happen.

Ken
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Old 03-04-2011, 09:07 AM
 
Location: North Cackelacky....in the hills.
19,567 posts, read 21,898,582 times
Reputation: 2519
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
The BLS ALSO collects and posts "NOT seasonally adjusted" (ie "raw" numbers) - for those who want to see them.

Employment Situation Summary

Ken
What do the unadjusted numbers show?
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Old 03-04-2011, 09:07 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,370,064 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Seems others disagree with you
True Unemployment Rate Higher Than Reported (http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/sectors-mainmenu-46/667 - broken link)

But I dont know enough to decide who is correct..

It does beg the question.. When I make payroll, I have to report who I paid, how much they paid, and send payroll taxes into the state.. Why arent they calculated off actual payroll statistics instead of just random surveys?

Yes but we are discussing the percentage they publish.. which is based off the seasonally adjusted figures..
Yeah I see that claim posted all over the web - one site copying it from another, but the data doesn't back that up. There WAS no huge drop back in 1994 - and there WOULD have been had half the unemployed suddenly been stripped from the rate.

As I said, it's a BOGUS claim.

Ken
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