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This is an article from a local publication where they are saying the DOW will hit 30,000 by the end of the year inflating a massive bubble that may or may not pop.
Are these people on crack? Has the DOW ever went up by almost 300% in less than 6 months time?
Yes, they could be on crack and will vote Democrat to prove it.
Oh, summers73, it is definitely on. This ought to be fun; believe me, I am as highly leveraged to my beliefs as I can possibly be. It is my good fortune to have engaged you in our bet, and I look forward to reading your post as payoff, one year from today.
LOL, lookin' good so far. I hope marcopolo's unconditional apology times itself well with my quarterly statement highlighting the success of my schadenfreude-ized ETF portfolio.
Speaking of which, the DOW has been on the way back up. Where did all the Obama haters go all of a sudden? When the DOW is down it's the end of America and all Obama's fault. When it goes up then they all run for cover and wait for the next dip.
Hate to tell you, but the concept of a Gold/Dow ratio makes no sense for one reason: the "Dow" has ten times the earnings that it did twenty or twenty-five years ago, but an ounce of gold then is still just an ounce of gold now. One who buys gold for the long haul is like the biblical servant that merely held the gold talent instead of investing it...at the end, the gold talent was still just a gold talent.
I'm just sayin'.
you don't buy it for the long haul. You buy it for the trip from the top to the bottom of the post bull rally run. When the Dow is headed down gold heads up. When it bottoms out sell gold and buy stocks again. Flip side when gold peaks sell gold and buy stock. Timing is everything in this game. What I'm doing is gold prospecting now. Found a good place. I wouldn't exactly buy gold now but spending my time digging it up? You got it. http://pragcap.com/wp-content/upload...06/DowGold.png
Few thought 6 ounces of gold would buy the Dow back in 2005. Too many people were gaga over homes to pay any attention, probably also talking as yourself about the earnings of Beazer and Toll Brothers as proof of my fallacy. I'm sure just as many (yourself included) believe the PRESENT (keyword here) earnings of the Dow will be sufficient to maintain a 6-1 ratio or higher. I doubt it. Come back to this thread in a year and let's see where that ratio lies.
It was a good time to be gaga over homes, when they returned 500% profits in one year.
Summers73, a LOT of people bought gold at the 1979-80 peak, just as a lot of newbies have piled in near today's high prices. Nobody wanted it at $290 an ounce in 1993.
I'll type this very slowly, please try to follow: while the intrinsic value of an ounce of gold is still just an ounce of gold, the underlying basis for the value of the Dow (earnings) has doubled and doubled and doubled. When the Dow hits 20,000 at some unknown point in the future, gold is highly likely to be 1/10th or 1/20th of the Dow. Decades from now, gold could be 1/50th or 1/100th of the Dow. Gold is static; the Dow is a growth machine.
Near term, the price of gold will be unpredictable as it is entirely dependent on fads, fashion, the madness of crowds. When the bubble pops, as it inevitably will, there will be a lot of pain.
I know you will not agree with my opinion; I understand that you hold your opinion firmly. That's why they have a market. Good luck.
http://pragcap.com/wp-content/upload...06/DowGold.png The Dow is headed from the high it reached in 1999 to a bottom. The fed is printing money to keep the dollar value of the Dow above 12k. So how do you protect the value of your net worth during this time? Shorting only works when the dollar value is going down. The ratio of gold to the Dow is headed to 1:1 or less. It will bottom out before the Dow starts to add real value adjusted for inflation. You want to sell gold before it bottoms out and buy stocks again. As you said in the future gold will have an atrocious ratio with the Dow. But before it gets there, starts heading in the other direction, you will have something like a 3:1 or a 7:1 run in your investment in gold. Buying gold now for holding long term, no way, holding it until the ratio starts heading the other way then selling it and riding stock for a long time? That is the way to "invest" in gold.
This is an article from a local publication where they are saying the DOW will hit 30,000 by the end of the year inflating a massive bubble that may or may not pop.
Are these people on crack? Has the DOW ever went up by almost 300% in less than 6 months time?
We will see Dow at 10000 before we see it at 30000.
I think the people expect the stock market will go up because inflation will be in a world of pain. The reason why this theory work in the past is the capital stay home. But in today's market, a few key entry will send money abroad in seconds.
It was a good time to be gaga over homes, when they returned 500% profits in one year.
Only idiots didn't know that it was extremely temporary. By idiots I mean people like realtors and a few people on Capitol Hill.
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Backing out!!?!
