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Ahhh, sweet, profitable vindication. Thank you, Summers, it has been a pleasure doing business with you.
My pleasure. I never ever welch and in this instance I was very much incorrect on my assumptions. Ben held off on QE3 just long enough for you to win the bet
My pleasure. I never ever welch and in this instance I was very much incorrect on my assumptions. Ben held off on QE3 just long enough for you to win the bet
You are a sport. Want to re-up?
9/4/2012 at the close: Dow 13035, gold 1692.50, ratio 7.70
7.20 to 8.20 on 9/4/2013 is a push, lower than that, you win; higher than that, I win. Apology post at conclusion.
Speaking of which, the DOW has been on the way back up. Where did all the Obama haters go all of a sudden? When the DOW is down it's the end of America and all Obama's fault. When it goes up then they all run for cover and wait for the next dip.
Dollar isn't worth crap and at this rate will be even less.
Oh, if we actually had dollars anymore instead of Bank notes.
Say this could turn into some kinda thing you guys do every year for decades, then there will a blurb about it in that bottom section in the WSJ and of course it'll show you guys finally meeting for beers and have some chart of who was correct more often.
9/4/2012 at the close: Dow 13035, gold 1692.50, ratio 7.70
7.20 to 8.20 on 9/4/2013 is a push, lower than that, you win; higher than that, I win. Apology post at conclusion.
Will definitely consider it. Will update thread shortly. I need to look into Benny Boy's eyes on TV and try to predict when he drops the QE3 bomb and gold explodes past the Dow. My timing was definitely off and Ben has been extremely clever with his "all hat no cattle" speeches and dangling QE3 like a carrot on a stick.
This is an article from a local publication where they are saying the DOW will hit 30,000 by the end of the year inflating a massive bubble that may or may not pop.
Are these people on crack? Has the DOW ever went up by almost 300% in less than 6 months time?
Hate to tell you, but the concept of a Gold/Dow ratio makes no sense for one reason: the "Dow" has ten times the earnings that it did twenty or twenty-five years ago, but an ounce of gold then is still just an ounce of gold now. One who buys gold for the long haul is like the biblical servant that merely held the gold talent instead of investing it...at the end, the gold talent was still just a gold talent.
I'm just sayin'.
Hate to tell you (not really I don't mind) but the price of gold is a reflection of total currency in play worldwide as its a worldwide currency.
Ok Dow's earning may be ten times what they were, but the money worldwide is probably greater than 10x.
When the U.S. dollar inevitably collapses would you rather have dollars or hard assets?
Things move in cycles and it is quite possible that if the cycles continue we will see an oz of gold equal the dow.
Granted their are no guarantees and I could be wrong, but have you seen the debt levels? The only way out is printing or default as far as I can tell. Either spells trouble for the U.S. dollar.
Hate to tell you (not really I don't mind) but the price of gold is a reflection of total currency in play worldwide as its a worldwide currency.
Ok Dow's earning may be ten times what they were, but the money worldwide is probably greater than 10x.
When the U.S. dollar inevitably collapses would you rather have dollars or hard assets?
Things move in cycles and it is quite possible that if the cycles continue we will see an oz of gold equal the dow.
Granted their are no guarantees and I could be wrong, but have you seen the debt levels? The only way out is printing or default as far as I can tell. Either spells trouble for the U.S. dollar.
Thank you, thank you, thank you. Your well-stated theory is the key to the profitability of my position. I expect to win this wager a minimum of three years out of four for decades to come, because of the flaw in your thinking.
I do not own dollars. I own percentage interests in great businesses, acquired at wonderful prices. These percentage interests happen to be priced in dollars, as gold is, in the United States. I own a fractional interest in all the oil reserves of the two largest oil companies. I own the manufacturing and distribution facilities and brands of the largest manufacturer of clothing in the world. I own the stores and distribution centers and computer systems of the largest retailer in the world. I own the lines, towers, customers, and every other part of two communications companies. I own the largest provider of information technology services in the world, and one of the largest media and entertainment companies. All of these make money virtually every year, and send me a portion of their earnings each quarter.
Whatever else may happen in the future, I believe people will still use energy, communicate, eat, wear clothes, and watch ESPN. And the deep unpopularity of owning percentage interests in companies has allowed me to purchase mine at bargain prices. It isn't easy; one of my holdings recently got too popular and had to be sold. A 40% gain over the last three years, on top of 6% annual dividends, got reinvested in a company in the materials sector, trading at a third of its price a couple of years ago...with a 7% yield. Gold is sterile, a dead asset, costs money to own instead of paying its owners. But you go ahead, I don't mind.
Right now, the odds in favor of my position are so compelling relative to yours, that I am willing to make the wager even based on the performance of a static index of thirty stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, instead of the superior collection of assets that I hold. Gold has a much better chance of hitting $900 per ounce than the Dow has of declining to 8,000. And the forces you see as propelling the price of gold will have the same beneficial impact on my REAL assets, the assets of the companies I own.
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