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The interesting part about the Pacific War is that it directly led to the rise of Communist China. I don't know why Americans complain about Communist China all the time since they were the reason for its rise by allowing Stalin to invade Manchuria. Mao Zedong established Manchuria (which was the most industrialized region of China) as his base of operations and he eventually won the Chinese Civil War. Think about the consequences before making a move, our politicians certainly didn't and have never did.
IMO, I think the Chinese in 50 years will accomplish what the Japanese failed to accomplish and that is to establish the Pacific specifically the Western Pacific as its sphere of influence. I also expect the Chinese to expel the Americans from the Western Pacific region in 50 years and make an agreement with America to split the Pacific into two different spheres of influence. I don't know how the Americans can actually compete against the economically powerful Chinese diaspora in Southeast Asian countries since they are going to influence their respective countries to bandwagon around China.
That is the historical consistency of allies...one's former enemy usually becomes a friend and vice versa. Take Iran and Iraq. In 1979, Iran became a foe with the hostages.....Iraq was a friend. We trained them air traffic control skills in Hawaii in the summer of 1980.....11 years later we were beating the bejesus out of them in the gulf......afghanistan and Charlie Wilson were friends in the 80's trying to, and ultimately succeeding in, running the Soviets out of Afghanistan, fast forward 20 some odd years later and we are fighting some of the same folks we befriended......just the nature of war....we loved the Soviets right up to the end of World War II.......loved the Japanese in the 20's......and yet???
Your theory may or may not pan out. It is conceivable given China's cheap labor, iron fisted govenment and 1 billion citizenry but, it may jot come true. Simply due to the trappings of all enriched societies. Sooner or later, the pesants want more than ramen noodles in their bellies? Soon, they want a car,,,,then two......then air conditioning.....and then 3 squares a day......ironic that shinsu may have said it best, sooner or later, your strength (1 billion people) becomes your weakness.....disidents.....you can keep a few under wraps for awhile but, sooner or later, they all want more....all humans do.....the weakness or intellect of man makes it so. ....it worked in South Africa, Brazil, Venezuela, Peru, and the US......how long will it take for them to reach their boiling point? Maybe 100 years, maybe less......I'm thinking less than 50.....technology is moving too quickly, borders, real or imagined, are coming down rapidly (cold war?).
In the end, we are going to be an "also ran"....top 5....and probably glad to be that.....the trappings of our society have pushed states li,e California, the 8th largest GDP in the world, to the brink of bankruptcy......and we don't even put our folks who disagree in prison, let alone persecute them......no, China and India will only keep the lid on those garbage cans for so long.....sooner or later, other countries will eant these trappings as well. Should be interesting to see how they deal with the inherent problems that come along with personal freedoms....smart money says, a bit more bloody and a bit more harshly.
The Iranians have threatened to do this before. The difference this time is that they've had well over ten years to rebuild their military (particularly their Navy), and they are likely feeling very cocky. On the other hand, cutting off the oil flow also cuts off all other supplies, particularly to Iran, and so they would only be further isolating themselves, to say nothing of the potential loss of virtually their entire Navy and most of their defenses bording the Persian Gulf. I think at the end of the day, they will pull back and rethink the whole thing.
The Iranians have threatened to do this before. The difference this time is that they've had well over ten years to rebuild their military (particularly their Navy), and they are likely feeling very cocky. On the other hand, cutting off the oil flow also cuts off all other supplies, particularly to Iran, and so they would only be further isolating themselves, to say nothing of the potential loss of virtually their entire Navy and most of their defenses bording the Persian Gulf. I think at the end of the day, they will pull back and rethink the whole thing.
We are the one's doing the threatening, we are the one's that need to pull back.
Ron Paul 2012!
We are the one's doing the threatening, we are the one's that need to pull back.
Ron Paul 2012!
I was referring to their attempts to shut down the strait during the Iran-Iraq war. That didn't go over well then, and it won't go over well now. We have placed sanctions on them, and rightly so. Do you really want to see a nuclear Iran? Really? All they have to do is fully comply with the terms of the NNPT, which they agreed to do when they signed it.
I don't want to see another war. Hell, enough is enough from where I sit. I had two nephews and a cousin in harm's way these past ten years. At the same time, we have treaty obligations with our allies, and it certainly IS in our interest to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. If we cannot stop the proliferation, how does the rest of the world expect us and the other nuclear armed nations to disarm?
Looks like the timing is right. Next year is 2012 (December 21, 2012). Doomsday according to the Mayan calendar. The government is saying Iran could have a nuclear weapon ready to fire at Israel by the end of next year. If Israel and Iran go to war, it WILL be World War III. We attack Iran and Russia attacks us for attacking one of their secret allies. Just a few weeks ago Russia started aiming their missiles at U.S. interests. There is no telling how North Korea will fit into all this now that they have a new leader. The timing of all this is scary. World War 2 ended with a nuclear bomb, World War 3 could begin with one.
I'm really not sure that any of this is very plausible.
Iran just isn't very threatening. Its a country that has started zero wars in thirty years, that is way behind Israel in term of military power and that may have some limited capability in the future. What possible threat is that to America with its $650,000,000,000 a year military? Seems a little silly...
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