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Does that mean we Baby Boomers will be getting a generous, benevolent gov't that will allow us to vote ourselves a bigger piece of the taxpayer funded pie?
So basically if the GOP gets 6% more Whites to vote for them in 2028 compared to 2012 all other variables remaining constant they win the White House. What exactly is frightening about that for the GOP?
What is eye opening though is even if the GOP was to win the Hispanic vote and all other variables remained constant they would still lose in 2028 according to this model. One has to wonder if amnesty is in the GOP's best interest.
Amnesty is a chance the GOP can not refuse to take. Many do not realize that had Romney won Ohio, Florida and Virginia in 2012, Obama still would of won the election with 272 EV. Every state that added up to 272 he won by no less then 5 percent. Colorado and Nevada was the tipping point, both states with a large Hispanic population.
By not having amnesty we only continue with De-facto amnesty.
Amnesty is a chance the GOP can not refuse to take. Many do not realize that had Romney won Ohio, Florida and Virginia in 2012, Obama still would of won the election with 272 EV. Every state that added up to 272 he won by no less then 5 percent. Colorado and Nevada was the tipping point, both states with a large Hispanic population.
By not having amnesty we only continue with De-facto amnesty.
By passing amnesty you accelerate the insolvency of your senior welfare programs and provide incentives for people to break the law. There is a reason welfare states have strict immigration policies.
So basically if the GOP gets 6% more Whites to vote for them in 2028 compared to 2012 all other variables remaining constant they win the White House. What exactly is frightening about that for the GOP?
What is eye opening though is even if the GOP was to win the Hispanic vote and all other variables remained constant they would still lose in 2028 according to this model. One has to wonder if amnesty is in the GOP's best interest.
It isn't in their best interests and I hope the clueless ones in the GOP are smart enough to figure that out.
It is not so much that the Dems are great, they are mediocre at best, but that the GOP really, really stinks. It has embraced hate and doing nothing as core principles. That is just not appealing.
Amnesty is a chance the GOP can not refuse to take. Many do not realize that had Romney won Ohio, Florida and Virginia in 2012, Obama still would of won the election with 272 EV. Every state that added up to 272 he won by no less then 5 percent. Colorado and Nevada was the tipping point, both states with a large Hispanic population.
By not having amnesty we only continue with De-facto amnesty.
Not if we actually started to enforce our immigration laws and removed all the incentives for them to remain here such as jobs, benefits and birthright citizenship for their kids.
So you're saying the GOP can change thus debunking predictions 50 years away?
I'm saying the GOP had BETTER change.
IF it DOESN'T change - and voting habits thus stay the same - the GOP is DOOMED to defeat.
The model doesn't show what WILL happen. It shows what WILL happen if voting patterns don't change - or in the case of the slide bars, if they DO change.
CLEARLY the demographic blocks that the GOP had little appeal for are the demographic blocks that are growing the fastest - that's just a fact.
What the GOP does about that, remains to be seen. But it's a pretty good bet that if the GOP doesn't do better with those demographic blocks, they are going to have an increasingly hard time getting in power.
It's really up to you folks what you do.
Its not 2028 either, but that didnt stop you from projecting outcomes which ignore things like changing electorial votes due to demographic changes..
So, your answer for the GOP is for them to gerrymander?
Yeah, that'll work FOR A WHILE - and REALLY p*ss off those growing minorities in the process, so GOOD LUCK with THAT approach.
Aside from that it's not MY projection - it's NATE SILVERs' projection - you know? The guy all those wingnuts - both here on the board and on FOX News - tried to discredit when he made projections that Obama would win easily. He sure made THEM look stupid. Nate looks at the MATH, he doesn't let his emotions enter into it, nor his political opinions - and the MATH says, the GOP will be struggling in the coming decades unless something changes.
I'm saying the GOP had BETTER change.
IF it DOESN'T change - and voting habits thus stay the same - the GOP is DOOMED to defeat.
The model doesn't show what WILL happen. It shows what WILL happen if voting patterns don't change - or in the case of the slide bars, if they DO change.
CLEARLY the demographic blocks that the GOP had little appeal for are the demographic blocks that are growing the fastest - that's just a fact.
What the GOP does about that, remains to be seen. But it's a pretty good bet that if the GOP doesn't do better with those demographic blocks, they are going to have an increasingly hard time getting in power.
It's really up to you folks what you do.
Ken
Somehow I seriously doubt you care about the fate of the GOP or democracy --- you want unlimited immigration from the third world regions of the world because you know full well these are a one-party people with no belief in democracy. You're eager to bring on a one-party political system -- very much like Mexico and Cuba have.
The quickest way to achieve your one-party utopia and destroy democracy is to bring in unlimited numbers of these people who have proven they will vote for one party only back in their own country.
They destroyed their own democracy, you want to bring them in to destroy ours.
And having the GOP an exact replica of the Democrats is also about losing choice in the political process. Why don't you just consider moving to Mexico where the PRI party which is very similar to the democrats here is voted in for over 70 years straight? That's what you want to have here, why not just relocate to a country that's already the way you want things to be?
I'm saying the GOP had BETTER change.
IF it DOESN'T change - and voting habits thus stay the same - the GOP is DOOMED to defeat.
The model doesn't show what WILL happen. It shows what WILL happen if voting patterns don't change - or in the case of the slide bars, if they DO change.
CLEARLY the demographic blocks that the GOP had little appeal for are the demographic blocks that are growing the fastest - that's just a fact.
What the GOP does about that, remains to be seen. But it's a pretty good bet that if the GOP doesn't do better with those demographic blocks, they are going to have an increasingly hard time getting in power.
It's really up to you folks what you do.
Ken
Aside from the black community then the GOP has to thumb their noses at our immigration laws and treat Hispanics like they are special and above them in order to gain their votes? No thanks, I'd rather see the party die than to sacrifice the soveirgnty of our borders and reward those who violate them. We will have moved away from the rule of law then something this country is based on and should be embraced by both parties.
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