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LOL
I missed something 6 years ago - wow.
When have you got anything RIGHT in the last 6 years? - not a thing as near as I can tell.
Get back to me when you actually manage to do so - THEN maybe you can "lecture" me.
First of all, I never said the market wasn't affected by what people THINK QE might do. The market bounces around ALL THE TIME by what people THINK will happen - but those changes are very short-lived and really do nothing with any long-term (or even mid-term) significance to the market. What I was addressing was the stoooooopid idea that the markets' incredible rise over the last 5 years or so was simply due to the Fed "pumping up the market" with QE (if you could actually COMPREHEND what you READ you WOULD have been able figure that out by the TITLE of this THREAD ).
Secondly, the "WHY" of what the market does is simply an OPINION of "why" the market did what it did - that's true of the brief drop after the beginning of taper - as well as any other event which "drives" the market. NO ONE knows for sure WHY the market does what it does on any given day and there are LOTS of things that happen on each and every day - earnings are announced and geo-political changes occur worldwide. After the fact, analysis say "this is why the market did this" - but they can't really prove any of it - it's simply an opinion.
Sure, the market took a hit when the end of QE was announced - and I even POSTED that that was likely to happen (in MY opinion) in this thread right here (wiht my reply posted on Dec 1st):
And this is EXACTLY what happened - when tapering actually took place the market came down around 6.5% - right in the range I said would happen back on Dec 1st - and then once that reality was "digested" by investors, the market bounced right back. That process is likely to be repeated with each segment of taper - and each time the drop is likely to be a bit less significant and the bounce back quicker.
In the final analysis, the stock market will weather the end of QE just fine - for the simple reason that QE really had NOTHING to do with the market rise to begin with.
Ken
Keep trying. The post of yours I quoted says it all. And missing the biggest collapse since the Great Depression is disgraceful. Anyone with a small amount of economic or business sense could of told you when you lower the standards quality suffers.
Keep posting about economics. Keep repeating what the mouth breathers who were wrong about the economy and the recovery keep saying. It'll be good for laughs.
Here's a hint- When costs increase while the average family is making less doesn't mean things are swell.
Keep trying. The post of yours I quoted says it all. And missing the biggest collapse since the Great Depression is disgraceful. Anyone with a small amount of economic or business sense could of told you when you lower the standards quality suffers.
Keep posting about economics. Keep repeating what the mouth breathers who were wrong about the economy and the recovery keep saying. It'll be good for laughs.
Here's a hint- When costs increase while the average family is making less doesn't mean things are swell.
Sadly for your silly theory, disposable income us UP over 2010, 2011 and 2012 (not to mention 2009 and earlier).
I notice you haven't been able to come up with anything you wingnuts have been right about in the last 5 years. Shall we review a few of those subjects?
The economic turnaround? - Nope.
The stock market turnaround? - Nope.
The housing market turnaround? - Nope.
Obamas' election? - Nope.
Obamas' re-election? - Nope.
Who would win the government shutdown showdown? - Nope.
QE propping up the stock market? - Nope.
Still waiting to hear if there was something - ANYTHING - you've been right about in the last 5 years.
So far I haven't heard a thing.
I notice you haven't been able to come up with anything you wingnuts have been right about in the last 5 years. Shall we review a few of those subjects?
The economic turnaround? - Nope.
The stock market turnaround? - Nope.
The housing market turnaround? - Nope.
Obamas' election? - Nope.
Obamas' re-election? - Nope.
Who would win the government shutdown showdown? - Nope.
QE propping up the stock market? - Nope.
Still waiting to hear if there was something - ANYTHING - you've been right about in the last 5 years.
So far I haven't heard a thing.
Ken
Conservatism doesn't seek to be right, it seeks to inspire (i.e. brainwash).
Conservatism is wrong about literally everything. Their track record is zero.
I'm still waiting for the winger answer about how QE is causing runaway inflation and we need to get back into gold asap because the dollar is just being devalued so much.
I notice you haven't been able to come up with anything you wingnuts have been right about in the last 5 years. Shall we review a few of those subjects?
The economic turnaround? - Nope.
The stock market turnaround? - Nope.
The housing market turnaround? - Nope.
Obamas' election? - Nope.
Obamas' re-election? - Nope.
Who would win the government shutdown showdown? - Nope.
QE propping up the stock market? - Nope.
Still waiting to hear if there was something - ANYTHING - you've been right about in the last 5 years.
So far I haven't heard a thing.
Ken
median household income
2012 $51,017
2011 $51,100
As I said prices are rising, income is falling, lowest percentage of labor force working in decades. So no economic turnaround.
Housing Market recovery? pfft shadow market, which is something that escapes you, is falling at least. Guess what though. Existing home inventory is at a 13 year low. New constructed home inventory is at a 50 year low. So rising prices and a dropping median household income is somehow a good thing? For whom? Not the Middle Class.
keep posting
median household income
2012 $51,017
2011 $51,100
As I said prices are rising, income is falling, lowest percentage of labor force working in decades. So no economic turnaround.
Housing Market recovery? pfft shadow market, which is something that escapes you, is falling at least. Guess what though. Existing home inventory is at a 13 year low. New constructed home inventory is at a 50 year low. So rising prices and a dropping median household income is somehow a good thing? For whom? Not the Middle Class.
keep posting
The change between the 2011/2012 numbers you mention are (even according to the census bureau - whos' numbers they are) "not statistically significant" (ie within the sampling margin of error) so they really don't mean a thing. That "not statistically significant" is a direct quote.
Prices are rising at the smallest amount they have in many decades. Food price ARE up due to the recent drought (something outside of our control - at least according to you climate change deniers) and those prices will drop again once the drought ends. Gas prices are LOWER than they were 1 year ago - which in turn was lower than they were 2 years ago.
Income growth remains slow because the UE rate is still elevated, but will likely begin to increase once the UE rate gets a bit closer to 6% (which is likely to happen before the end of the year) - or possibly even just under 6.5% - which will happen by summer.
The housing"shadow inventory" is GONE - that's WHY existing home inventory is so low - which is a GOOD thing, because it means homebuilding is likely to pick up considerably to help make for the shortage of current homes on the market - which means more construction JOBS.
And yes, rising home prices are GOOD THING as long as they are not excessive - ask any homeowner or economist. Rising home prices fuel consumer confidence and stimulate economic growth and consumer spending. So, yeah it IS "good for the middle class".
And again - what prediction have you been right about in the last 5 years? - as near as I can tell, the answer is NONE, NADA, ZIP. You've been right about NOTHING. Every single thing you wingnuts predicted would happen has NOT happened - not a one.
I notice you haven't been able to come up with anything you wingnuts have been right about in the last 5 years. Shall we review a few of those subjects?
The economic turnaround? - Nope.
The stock market turnaround? - Nope.
The housing market turnaround? - Nope.
Obamas' election? - Nope.
Obamas' re-election? - Nope.
Who would win the government shutdown showdown? - Nope.
QE propping up the stock market? - Nope.
Still waiting to hear if there was something - ANYTHING - you've been right about in the last 5 years.
So far I haven't heard a thing.
Ken
But the food riots, muslim takeover and FEMA concentration camps are just around the corner.
I notice you haven't been able to come up with anything you wingnuts have been right about in the last 5 years. Shall we review a few of those subjects?
The economic turnaround? - Nope.
The stock market turnaround? - Nope.
The housing market turnaround? - Nope.
Obamas' election? - Nope.
Obamas' re-election? - Nope.
Who would win the government shutdown showdown? - Nope.
QE propping up the stock market? - Nope.
Still waiting to hear if there was something - ANYTHING - you've been right about in the last 5 years.
So far I haven't heard a thing.
Ken
Looks like you have called the market correctly over the last five years, Ken. I bailed at Dow 10,500. Similarly, the "retreat" in January was heralded as the beginning of another market meltdown. Both you and I correctly identified that as a brief pullback. Eventually this market will have a severe setback (as always happens), but you have made a good profit by having some guts and riding this one this long.
Do I have money in the market? Yes- 401K money that I cannot "manipulate" and my kid's investments. The vast majority of my money is in either cash or land at this time. I can be patient, as I do not really need capital appreciation- I need capital preservation. What am I going to do? I am waiting for the expected 10-20% decline in farmland prices to get more land. I just feel better about being able to stand on my investments and look at them. There is something very comforting about looking out and knowing that you own everything as far as you can see.
Looks like you have called the market correctly over the last five years, Ken. I bailed at Dow 10,500. Similarly, the "retreat" in January was heralded as the beginning of another market meltdown. Both you and I correctly identified that as a brief pullback. Eventually this market will have a severe setback (as always happens), but you have made a good profit by having some guts and riding this one this long.
Do I have money in the market? Yes- 401K money that I cannot "manipulate" and my kid's investments. The vast majority of my money is in either cash or land at this time. I can be patient, as I do not really need capital appreciation- I need capital preservation. What am I going to do? I am waiting for the expected 10-20% decline in farmland prices to get more land. I just feel better about being able to stand on my investments and look at them. There is something very comforting about looking out and knowing that you own everything as far as you can see.
Thanks.
Well, the P/E ratio - while not exceptionally so - is now about 30% higher than the historical average, so at some point a pullback is to be expected. As I've already mentioned, I fully expected a 5%-10% correction when the Q/E decrease was put into effect (which is what happened - and then the market quickly recovered). Eventually we will likely see a larger correction to bring the P/E ratio a bit closer to the historical average - my guess is 15% to 20% or so.
Such a P/E-based pullback will really have nothing to do with the ending of Q/E - nor will it come anywhere near erasing the 100+% gains in the market over the past 5 years, but will merely be stabilizing the P/E ratio at a more "traditional" level. I have no idea WHEN it will happen, but at some point it WILL happen (that's the nature of the stock market).
Ken
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