Gallup Amits 5.6 % Unemployment is a "Big Lie" (Limbaugh, interview, wage)

[turkey-head]

Originally Posted by Wapasha

The past six years of 0bama show us where all that money goes, it goes to the top 1%. Meanwhile the poverty level climbs to a fifty yer high. 0bama's policies have impoverished the poor, and made the wealthy even more wealthy.

The left could give a rat's ass about the poor until a Republican is president, then suddenly the cable TV news reports and documentaries about poverty and homelessness in America will start being played.

Well according to the religion of Reagan-worship... isn't that the best thing that could possibly be done for the economy??

[alphamale]

Just ask your neighbors.

[WilliamSmyth]

Originally Posted by Wapasha

the Labor participation has not been flat for a year.

Two charts for Labor Participation Rate:

http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/...3099139904.gif

http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/...3099255863.gif

In Oct 2013 it hit 62.8 in Dec 2014 it was 62.7. The demographic pressures should have it declining.

[TigerLily24]

Originally Posted by alphamale

Just ask your neighbors.

My neighbors just bought a new car and upgraded their kitchen.

[FrankMiller]

Originally Posted by vvega

So why do we work? Let the government take 1000 trillion more in debt and we'll live in endless richness ever after. Makes sense? As much sense as your logic.

The government borrowing that much money would spend it, increasing incomes by a total of 1000 trillion. Debt doesn't create or reduce consumption, it's just a trade. And paying the debt off is a trade in the opposite direction. Your example is like saying "if baseball teams can't find prospects, why not just trade a million players, then they'll have more pro ball players than they know what to do with!"

[Quick Enough]

Originally Posted by mateo45

That's probably because it's easier to complain that Obama isn't doing "enough", than defending a GOP Congress that ain't been doing squat (much less helping the economy)!

Gallup: U.S. Approval of Congress Remains Near All-Time Low

Senate Republicans again block bill to end tax breaks for outsourcing

"than defending a GOP Congress"

In case you have had your head in the sand for quite awhile, the GOP has NOT been Congress.

They just took control less then a month ago.

Maybe you haven't ever heard of a guy named Harry Reid, you now, the guy who boldly replied, "A budget, we don't need a budget"

Being you want to complain about "congress" how about telling all of us the GREAT things the DEM CONTROLLED SENATE has done these PAST 8 years.

[WilliamSmyth]

From Gallup's own latest employment report.

U.S. Payroll to Population Rate 44.1% in January

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 44.1% in January. This is statistically similar to the 44.3% measured in December, but it is the highest measurement of P2P for any January since Gallup began tracking the metric in 2010. January is typically one of the lowest months for P2P in any year.
....
U.S. employment measures show continued positive signs for the economy in January 2015. Employment growth has been stronger in the past 12 months than in any year since Gallup began tracking these metrics in January 2010. P2P was higher in January in 2015 than in any previous year, hopefully setting the stage for continued strength in the months ahead. Unadjusted unemployment rose by more than a point, but the underlying combination of more workforce participation and lower rates of part-time work that appear to drive this increase make this counterintuitively good news.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by FrankMiller

And obligations to foreign investors are tiny, hardly worth thinking about.

False statement.

I'll present the data, and let you all judge the level of lying and deceit and total incompetence.

As of February 3, the public debt is $13 TRILLION.

As of November 2014, $6.1 TRILLION was held by foreign entities.

$6.1 TRILLION / $13 TRILLION = 46.9% of public debt is held by foreign entities

According to Göbbels-lovers, 46.9% is "tiny, hardly worth thinking about."

Originally Posted by FrankMiller

Most of our debt is to ourselves,...

Another false statement.

Of the 53.1% of public debt held by US entities, $725 Billion is pension funds.

$233 Billion of that is State and local government pension funds.

Isn't there a pension crisis in the US? State and local government pension funds are insolvent, right?

Don't pension funds get paid out? Isn't that the whole freaking point of pension funds?

When money is owed for pensions, States and local governments liquidate their US treasury securities by demanding payment in full.

Debt does not decrease, because the Treasury Department simply repackages those securties and auctions them off to foreign entities.

Over time, foreign entities will own an ever increasing amount of securities, up to a point.

The other part of the federal debt is intragovernmental holdings, currently at $5 TRILLION

Those are trust funds, such as for Medicare, OASI, OADI, Railroad Retirement, Black Lung, Federal Pension, EPA Super Fund, etc.

In order to pay Medicare and Social Security Benefits, the government must liquidate the special treasury securities, by taking money out of the General Fund, which in turn requires Treasury to repackage that debt and auction it off to foreign entities.

Originally Posted by FrankMiller

But long-term, you run into issues like demographic shifts that change the participation rate but have nothing to do with economic health. I'm sure someone could think of other problems with this measure as well, in the context of discussing unemployment.

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

What are the largest segments of the population that are contributing to the LFPR?

Are you claiming that the US is the only State with Baby Boomers?

I sure hope not, because that would be stupid.

Other States have far higher Labor Force Participation Rates.....5% to 10% higher than the US.

In many of those States, the Full Retirement Age is 62, not 65+ and in others' 55-60 years.

Even Canada had 65.7% Labor Force Participation Rate in December 2014.

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

The U6 number has also been declining for some time now.

You can only be on the U-6 for a maximum of 11 months.

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

The number of people working part time for economic reasons, although still high, has been declining.

You can only hold that status for 11 months.

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

The initial jobless claims number has been at historic lows for months now.

Not relevant. Those are "initial jobless claims." You work a temp job for 120 days, then go back on unemployment benefits, you're not counted as "initial jobless claims."

Originally Posted by turkey-head

Ain't it cool how you can make charts look really scary by not accounting for obvious factors like inflation and economic expansion?

Why would you not account for Inflation?

Are you suggesting that prices should never increase?

Because that would be stupid.

Demand-pull Inflation is supposed to happen.

Cost-push Inflation, Interest Inflation and Monetary Inflation are caused by government policies. There is no logical reason to exclude those factors, unless you're trying to be disingenuous.

Originally Posted by turkey-head

Yes, that's precisely what happened after WWII. Please look it up and educate yourself on the matter.

China's GDP was greater than the US after WW II?

You need to educate yourself.

Originally Posted by FrankMiller

Maybe you should explain how debt will enslave the next generation.

What would be the point?

You don't even understand how your system works....

Mircea

[ASOT]

Originally Posted by ottomobeale

If you call BS on the number now, you need to call BS on it under the previous administration.

They won't, but they'll happily use the U-6 rate or some random bullsh*t number for Obama

U3 is the accepted statistic for unemployment and has been for every president going back to Franklin Roosevelt. When people talk about the Ronald Reagan’s unemployment figures - which peaked at 10.8% in 1982, dropped to 8.3% one year before the 1984 election, and fell to 7.4% just before his reelection - they’re talking about the U3 rate.
[...]
But here’s the slight of hand - or more correctly, the scam - that Republicans are playing on you. They judge every other president from Reagan to Bush on the much lower U3 number. Then they slyly shift the Obama discussion to the much higher U6 statistic.

The thing to remember is, U6 is always higher than U3 and always has been. Under Reagan it peaked at 20%, higher than it has ever been under Obama, and under GW Bush it went as high as 14.2%.

[FrankMiller]

Originally Posted by Mircea

$6.1 TRILLION / $13 TRILLION = 46.9% of public debt is held by foreign entities

But we also own foreign debt, and make a net positive on foreign investment income less debt payments. Not exactly the crisis you're painting.

Originally Posted by Mircea

Don't pension funds get paid out? Isn't that the whole freaking point of pension funds?

Yes, to Americans, i.e. some of "us".

Originally Posted by Mircea

Are you claiming that the US is the only State with Baby Boomers?

I sure hope not, because that would be stupid.

I'm just pointing out an issue with using participation rate as the gold-standard perfect measure of employment.

Originally Posted by Mircea

Other States have far higher Labor Force Participation Rates.....5% to 10% higher than the US.

In many of those States, the Full Retirement Age is 62, not 65+ and in others' 55-60 years.

Even Canada had 65.7% Labor Force Participation Rate in December 2014.

There's all kinds of reasons participation rates might vary, aside from economic health, including demographics. Which was the point I made.

Originally Posted by Mircea

You don't even understand how your system works....

Mircea

I think you've made it pretty clear you don't understand debt at all, and you never even broached the point I made that you can't loan money through a time machine. Which is fine, since I've already explained pretty thoroughly.