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Old 08-30-2015, 10:47 AM
 
17,842 posts, read 14,384,541 times
Reputation: 4113

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Terryj View Post
As to the OP's title of the post "Sea levels will rise, experts warn, and it's not going to stop", yes sea levels will rise, it has happened in the past and these cycles will continue to happen on this planet. As far as "it's not going to stop" yes, it will stop, when the earth is ice free, that is expected to be in about 10,000 years. Alarmist love to use these natural cycles of events to push their agendas, relying on an ignorant population to propel their views, as if there is something that can be done about this climate change. The basic fact is this: The climate will change, just as it has done many times in the past and it will change many times in the future. The basic premise is this, either animals and humans will adapt or they will go the way of 99% of the life that has existed on this planet, extinct.
So what do you think causes "the natural cycles" and have they always been the same? Or do they happen by themselves ... like by magic? Is there anything different happening now? Why do you think it will be 10,000 years before the earth is ice-free?

 
Old 08-30-2015, 11:43 AM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4549
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefly View Post
Debate over exactly how much, yes, but there's no debate over the fact that humans are the driving factor of this warming.
I don't disagree that there is debate. As to humans driving warming? I'm not sure. I don't disagree that co2 has contributed to it. Maybe the majority. Though we don't know enough about ocean cycles to be sure. They've blamed the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian ocean for the global warming hiatus over the last 15+ years. How much have the oceans contributed to the earth's warming when the PDO and AMO were in the positive phases? IDK


Quote:
Nope. NASA says you're wrong. From an article entitled, How Is Today's Warming Different from the Past:

"When global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual."

Global Warming : Feature Articles
Predicted and observed are two completely different things. The observed warming of 0.75C over the last century+ has occurred countless times. Are you saying that there is high confidence that the earth will warm up by 5C by 2100?


Quote:
A new study suggests that the rate of global warming from doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less than the most dire estimates of some previous studies -- and, in fact, may be less severe than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1124150827.htm

Published papers are showing a tightening of Co2 sensitivity (temp doubled Co2). Look here



Quote:
Originally Posted by sanspeur View Post
Actually that is Hansen's graph.... Observed temperatures have been following scenario B fairly closely...

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics...1988_small.JPG

Scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, Exact opposite has happened. Epic fail of his model.

They've been following scenario C even closer. Why would you only look at the station data and not land and ocean data?

You know what scenario C assumes? "A rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”


You can't escape the fact that his 1988 models were way too sensitive to Co2


and what about his 1986 prediction that the US would be 9 degrees warmer in the 2020's Jimbo was a little off on that one too (+0.22F per decade), but only by 8.5F



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/


Face it, his early models were garbage, and alarmist.

Last edited by chicagogeorge; 08-30-2015 at 12:11 PM..
 
Old 08-30-2015, 11:55 AM
 
2,014 posts, read 1,529,071 times
Reputation: 1925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefly View Post
You do realize that if any of these organizations are found out to knowingly make false conclusions, it's over for them, right?

Their entire foundation rests upon sound scientific conclusions, not on politics. But, you're welcome to provide evidence of this grand global conspiracy, which includes funding from the Koch brothers whose research also found humans warming the planet.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and you have only made the claim at this point, so bring your evidence forth.


At least it's safe to say the denier arguments have gotten to a level of such desperation that they are not even worth engaging.

Science has won again.
You do know that most if not all of these organization have already been caught cooking the books. But for those that worship at the altar little things like facts don't enter into the discussion.
 
Old 08-30-2015, 11:59 AM
 
20,948 posts, read 19,051,128 times
Reputation: 10270
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanspeur View Post
You are entitled to your opinion....Just know that is all it is.
You see, I look for empirical evidence for things. For instance, lefties keep using the smoking debate from years ago to try and compare the evidence about the links to smoking and health problems to the debate about global climate change. The fact was that smokers were getting diseases like cancers and heart diseases at a much higher rate than non smokers. That was empirical evidence...if you don't believe in that science, you're an idiot. Now, compare this to the climate change debate..."scientists" who depend on funding from government to produce the required results have consistently produced false information and continue to make stark forecasts which never come true. Now, they're dealing in decades rather than years in their predictions since their predictions from 10 years ago have failed to even remotely come true.

We, as citizens of the globe, have not seen any empirical evidence what-so-ever of global climate change. The weather patterns that cause large storms, drought, large snowfalls, warmer winters, hotter summers etc, are all things which have been happening for millennia and have not gotten worse or better over recorded history. Regardless of what these charts and graphs tell you.
 
Old 08-30-2015, 11:59 AM
 
Location: So. of Rosarito, Baja, Mexico
6,987 posts, read 21,929,654 times
Reputation: 7007
The sea has been rising and receding for centuries so why all the hype today......we are going to die eventually anyway as have past generations before us.
 
Old 08-30-2015, 12:02 PM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,519,803 times
Reputation: 10096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefly View Post
Debate over exactly how much, yes, but there's no debate over the fact that humans are the driving factor of this warming.
Yes there is. In fact, what do you think we are doing here in this thread.

Also, just because you do not support the perspectives of scientists and others that are sceptical about the proposition that humans are "driving" warming (temperatures which have been flat over the last 17 or so years) does not mean their perspectives do not exist or that there is not an ongoing dispute about these matters. As you know very well, there certainly is. In fact, this thread is evidence of that.
 
Old 08-30-2015, 12:12 PM
 
11,155 posts, read 15,706,419 times
Reputation: 4209
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I don't disagree that there is debate. As to humans driving warming? I'm not sure. I don't disagree that co2 has contributed to it. Maybe the majority. Though we don't know enough about ocean cycles to be sure. They've blamed the Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian ocean for the global warming hiatus over the last 15+ years. How much have the oceans contributed to the earth's warming when the PDO and AMO were in the positive phases? IDK




Predicted and observed are two completely different things. The observed warming of 0.75C over the last century+ has occurred countless times. Are you saying that there is high confidence that the earth will warm up by 5C by 2100?



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1124150827.htm

Published papers are showing a tightening of Co2 sensitivity (temp doubled Co2). Look here






Scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, Exact opposite has happened. Epic fail of his model.

They've been following scenario C even closer. Why would you only look at the station data and not land and ocean data?

You know what scenario C assumes? "A rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”

and what about his 1986 prediction that the US would be 9 degrees warmer in the 2020's Jimbo was a little off on that one too (+0.22F per decade), but only by 8.5F



Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)


Face it, his early models were garbage, and alarmists.
There actually wasn't a hiatus the past 15+ years in overall global temperature. Oceans, in particular, have continued to absorb heat at an alarming rate. Air temperature to a lesser degree, which is where people got the false idea there was a hiatus.

You claimed earlier you thought we'd warmed this rapidly in the past. I think you're getting your information from bogus sources. Scientists are quite clear about the causes of the current warming based on thousands upon thousands of studies.

Last edited by Bluefly; 08-30-2015 at 12:21 PM..
 
Old 08-30-2015, 12:19 PM
 
11,155 posts, read 15,706,419 times
Reputation: 4209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
Yes there is. In fact, what do you think we are doing here in this thread.

Also, just because you do not support the perspectives of scientists and others that are sceptical about the proposition that humans are "driving" warming (temperatures which have been flat over the last 17 or so years) does not mean their perspectives do not exist or that there is not an ongoing dispute about these matters. As you know very well, there certainly is. In fact, this thread is evidence of that.
A bunch of amateurs with political talking points long disproven does not provide evidence of debate over what is warming our planet.

Seriously - every credible scientific organization in the world says humans are warming the planet. There's not a debate about this. You should be engaging with them if you have new evidence that negates that conclusion.

And - again - temperatures have not been flat the past 17 years. There was a slow down in the rate of increase (still increasing) specifically of AIR SURFACE TEMPERATURES due, they believe, to ocean current effects.

As you know, the earth is comprised of much more than land and air adjacent to it. When taken together, with ocean temps and atmospheric temps, the world kept right on warming up. Here's a longer explanation:

Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet: 'Hiatus' in rise of Earth's surface air temperature likely temporary

From NASA:
"'Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place.' That different place is the ocean."


This discussion is a good example of why the deniers are engaging in a debate that doesn't exist. They don't understand the science. They think air surface temperatures are all that is factored into climate data and then spread false information.

Last edited by Bluefly; 08-30-2015 at 12:48 PM..
 
Old 08-30-2015, 12:25 PM
 
11,155 posts, read 15,706,419 times
Reputation: 4209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer0101 View Post
You do know that most if not all of these organization have already been caught cooking the books. But for those that worship at the altar little things like facts don't enter into the discussion.
Actually, there's been no evidence of any sort upon investigation, but you're welcome to provide your evidence here and we can submit it for review.

Please go through and provide evidence for each of these organizations as a starting point: Office of Planning and Research - List of Organizations


This whole "worship at the altar" blah blah blah really doesn't help a mature conversation. I follow the scientific process. The scientific process weeds out human error and bias over time. Questionable data has been improved and models reconstructed. You know what they found? The earth is warming because of humans.

If you have a problem with what myself and others are saying, then you have a problem with the scientific process over thousands of studies.

Someday, evidence might emerge that negates humans as the warming factor, and if enough evidence emerges and is verified, I'll be right there with that conclusion. But, it's time to let political agendas go and let science tell us what we need to know.

Last edited by Bluefly; 08-30-2015 at 12:38 PM..
 
Old 08-30-2015, 12:33 PM
 
Location: Ohio
24,621 posts, read 19,165,825 times
Reputation: 21738
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefly View Post
You claimed earlier you thought we'd warmed this rapidly in the past. I think you're getting your information from bogus sources.
Um, the IPCC is the source.

There are 8 previous Inter-Glacial Periods recorded in Antarctic Ice Core Data.

The only factual statement you can make at this time, is that this Inter-Glacial Period is colder than the previous 8 periods.

If, and when, the average global temperatures should increase 10.4°F, the only scientifically accurate or factual statement you can make, is that the average global temperature would be equal to the average global temperature during the last Inter-Glacial Period.

Question: Are average global temperatures abnormal?

Answer: YES, BECAUSE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN IN THE PAST.

The proper scientific comparison is average tempertures today with average tempertures during each of the perivious 8 studied interglacial periods.

Comparing temperatures today with temperatures 40 years ago since 1880 or even since 1600 or since 8,000 BCE is just plain wrong scientifically speaking.
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