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I don't know. For some reason I thought that perhaps the discussion was the HPU poll in the OP where I explained with details about why one might be skeptical of that particular poll.
Again - do you remember the original post that started our conversation thread? Here, I'll help you:
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyMac18
Polls are "fake news" when they're negative - but the President still doesn't mind using them when they suit his argument:
Trump’s policy has generated a backlash among some of Europe’s leaders. Angela Merkel’s spokesman said the chancellor had ‘explained’ the UN Refugee Convention to the president in a phone call discussing the order, while London Mayor Sadiq Khan argued that the invitation to the president for a state visit to Britain in 2017 should be withdrawn until the ban is rescinded. Meanwhile, leaders of Europe’s populist right-wing parties, including Geert Wilders, Nigel Farage and Matteo Salvini, have heaped praise on Trump.
Amid these competing views, where do the public in European countries stand on the specific issue of Muslim immigration? There is evidence to suggest that both Trump and these radical right-wing parties reflect an underlying reservoir of public support.
Drawing on a unique, new Chatham House survey of more than 10,000 people from 10 European states, we can throw new light on what people think about migration from mainly Muslim countries. Our results are striking and sobering. They suggest that public opposition to any further migration from predominantly Muslim states is by no means confined to Trump’s electorate in the US but is fairly widespread.
Which honestly had nothing to do with what I was talking about.
And your point confuses me - are you saying we agree to use polling or not? I agree all polls aren't created equally.
But I wouldn't use polls getting the election wrong as any reason to throw out polling science...and if you want to dig into it, I bet you'd find that most of the polls were not as far off as most Trump supporters think - look at the really thin margins in a few of the battleground states and look at the thin margins in the polls. And the popular vote was definitely pretty close to most polls.
The biggest mistakes were likely made at the state levels, and in a winner-take-all electoral election, that can really magnify any mistakes. Maybe the polls were only slightly off in a few states, but that was enough to be really wrong overall. That doesn't mean the polling was wrong, per se - just that things went towards the Trump end of things on the margins. All polls have a probability of being wrong - they are inherently imprecise. I'd love to see an in-depth analysis of polling data from the election and how things went wrong.
Back to the main point, though - my post was meant to bring up
1) Trump's consistency (or lack thereof)
2) The ridiculousness of saying "negative" polls should be dismissed, but using polls in other cases where they are "positive".
A poll should not be disregarded on the basis of it being "negative". That is a preposterous thing to say (and a dangerous thing to say as the most powerful person in the US).
A poll should be disregarded if it's shown to have faulty methodology or if its sampling is not representative of the population it is meant to represent. I was not making any comment on this particular poll in my post above - although I think it's possible that it's methodology could certainly be off - I don't know. It's very fair to be skeptical of it (especially in regards to the election day comments above).
Why you're bringing up a poll about European views of Muslim immigration is rather perplexing as it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. It does appear to be a decent poll based on the methodology, though...happy?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1
I also point out that all politicians do worse against the abstraction of approval than against a specific opponent. Trump is not particularly popular. However career politicians are even less popular if the congressional approval rating is any guide. So Trump in that regard is wildly popular compared to the typical politician.
Eh - I'm not so sure that's true. But again, this has nothing to do with the topic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1
You on the other hand muse that Trump has no idea what he is doing. That's pretty interesting considering his internal polling seemed to be putting him in the right spot just before the election . Even Hillary's pollsters obviously knew what they were doing when they had her in Michigan. I kind of figured she was in serious trouble at that point. So I have a felling Trump knows something about this, your feelings and what you are willing to bet on notwithstanding....
What a ridiculous thing to say. If he actually understood polling science, he wouldn't say something as asinine as that. Again, you don't dismiss a poll because it's "negative" - you dismiss it because it's methodology is flawed. And as the POTUS, you don't say something so dangerous as that.
As well, the fact that he misquotes and/or misrepresents data points pretty often (e.g. murder rate stats, voter fraud statistics, etc.) makes me think he isn't great with numbers.
Is there someone on the Trump team that is good with polling and data? Most certainly. I mean, Conway herself was a pollster previously.
I wonder what Liberals will say once the economy is at a 5 % GNP AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS @ 2%. In very short time Trump has almost immediate results.
Cutting Gov
Strong hand National Security
Cutting the Budget
Keystone Pipeline
Border security!
The Obama results were not long term nor were they a bell ringer either.
Liberal Love big gov, because it means control over the people. I think the Cupcake crowd got use to handouts and 32 hours a week!
If he manages to do that, I'll definitely congratulate him. I have serious doubts that that would happen.
I have never had a 32 hour work week - what a weird thing to claim about "liberals" (as if they're working different types of jobs than "conservatives").
Again - do you remember the original post that started our conversation thread? Here, I'll help you:
To which you replied with this:
Which honestly had nothing to do with what I was talking about.
And your point confuses me - are you saying we agree to use polling or not? I agree all polls aren't created equally.
But I wouldn't use polls getting the election wrong as any reason to throw out polling science...and if you want to dig into it, I bet you'd find that most of the polls were not as far off as most Trump supporters think - look at the really thin margins in a few of the battleground states and look at the thin margins in the polls. And the popular vote was definitely pretty close to most polls.
The biggest mistakes were likely made at the state levels, and in a winner-take-all electoral election, that can really magnify any mistakes. Maybe the polls were only slightly off in a few states, but that was enough to be really wrong overall. That doesn't mean the polling was wrong, per se - just that things went towards the Trump end of things on the margins. All polls have a probability of being wrong - they are inherently imprecise. I'd love to see an in-depth analysis of polling data from the election and how things went wrong.
Back to the main point, though - my post was meant to bring up
1) Trump's consistency (or lack thereof)
2) The ridiculousness of saying "negative" polls should be dismissed, but using polls in other cases where they are "positive".
A poll should not be disregarded on the basis of it being "negative". That is a preposterous thing to say (and a dangerous thing to say as the most powerful person in the US).
A poll should be disregarded if it's shown to have faulty methodology or if its sampling is not representative of the population it is meant to represent. I was not making any comment on this particular poll in my post above - although I think it's possible that it's methodology could certainly be off - I don't know. It's very fair to be skeptical of it (especially in regards to the election day comments above).
Why you're bringing up a poll about European views of Muslim immigration is rather perplexing as it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. It does appear to be a decent poll based on the methodology, though...happy?
Eh - I'm not so sure that's true. But again, this has nothing to do with the topic.
What a ridiculous thing to say. If he actually understood polling science, he wouldn't say something as asinine as that. Again, you don't dismiss a poll because it's "negative" - you dismiss it because it's methodology is flawed. And as the POTUS, you don't say something so dangerous as that.
As well, the fact that he misquotes and/or misrepresents data points pretty often (e.g. murder rate stats, voter fraud statistics, etc.) makes me think he isn't great with numbers.
Is there someone on the Trump team that is good with polling and data? Most certainly. I mean, Conway herself was a pollster previously.
But Trump himself? I have my very sincere doubts.
"But I wouldn't use polls getting the election wrong as any reason to throw out polling science"
Sorry, you CAN"T have it both ways.
All the "polling science" was USED all during the campaign and it was fiasco.
If you keep using the SAME "science" you are going to KEEP on getting it wrong.
What do they say, "If you keep doing the same thing over and over do NOT EXPECT DIFFERENT RESULTS!
I see you ignored the part of the poll where they gave Obama a far worse rating and congress worse than that.
fail
/thread
Hey you know as well as I that poll is pretty accurate. The Shine is wearing off the POTUS and his crazy tweeting and statements.
A lot of second thoughts from my neighbors. As long as he keeps looking like he is going to start a war or get rid of regulations on personal finance issues he will continue to be looked upon in a bad light in NC.
Hey you know as well as I that poll is pretty accurate. The Shine is wearing off the POTUS and his crazy tweeting and statements.
A lot of second thoughts from my neighbors. As long as he keeps looking like he is going to start a war or get rid of regulations on personal finance issues he will continue to be looked upon in a bad light in NC.
"he will continue to be looked upon in a bad light in NC."
Please do NOT assume your right to speak for ALL of N.C.
As far as this 'pol" goes Is showed they only got responses from 373 people.
If you think that is enough to claim Trump is looked upon in s a bad light, I have bridge to sell you.
...
Liberal Love big gov, because it means control over the people. ...
Who are you trying to kid?
Republicans are all about controlling people.
McConnell and the Republicans just recently told a Warren she couldn't read a letter from Coretta Scott King on the Senate floor.
Republicans have been hot after controlling reproductive choices for decades. What business does "small government" have in women's decisions about their own bodies?
Republicans are all about locking people up for smoking dope, ... anything to fill up those privatized prisons.
Republicans are telling the people at Standing Rock that they don't have a right to insist that a pipeline not be built under the river that supplies their drinking water.
Republicans are all over the place telling everyone to shut up and quit protesting.
The list could go on for pages about Republican efforts to control people.
The Obama results were not long term nor were they a bell ringer either.
... I think the Cupcake crowd got use to handouts ...
Our nation was on the edge of financial collapse when Obama took over. Despite Republicans doing everything in their power to block bills for retraining, infrastructure, job growth, we've had the longest period of economic and job growth in our history.
For Republicans to ***** about slow growth when they put the brakes on is just plain stupid.
As to getting used to handouts, that would be Republican voters. Look at a map of who votes which way. Can't help but notice that the dismal economies are the areas that Republicans carry. Only 36% of the economic activity in this entire country comes from the areas Trump carried.
Mississippi, West Virginia, Alabama, Georgia... these are all states with lots of Republicans signed up for government assistance.
Polls are the new fake news. They are an attempt to tell everyone how they should be thinking. It is hard to believe that people are still citing them, but I guess some some learn at a slower pace.
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Trump pushing thu Fake News and Alt Facts!
