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OK city of 2.1 million. 300,000 illegals and 1,800,000 not. The illegals commit 1500 crimes. The legals commit 14,400 crimes. The illegal crime rate is 500 per 100,000 person years. The legal is 800 per 100,000 person years. The overall crime rate is 757.1 per 100,000 person years. The probability of any person being involved in a crime is .00757. or 0.76%.
So we remove the illegals. we now have 1,800,000 people 14400 crimes. Or a crime rate of 800 per 100,000 person years. The probability of any person being involved in a crime ins .008 or .8%.
So if you remove the illegals the chance that an individual will be involved in a crime goes for 0.76% to 0.8% That says when you get rid of the illegals the chance that akn individual will experience a crime has increased. 5.66%.
this is of course a wired example to demonstrate the point. With real number the differences will be smaller than this though in the same direction. The real message is the impact of removing illegals on crime is small to very small but likely negative.
Late reply, but none the less, It doesn't work that way (over simplification). Our population is not a homogeneous distribution of whites/minorities/illegals.
50% of murders are committed by ~3-4% of the population. Mostly black on black crime. So that small minority group distorts the average by a huge amount.
The fact is whites commit less violent crime (on average) than illegals (on average). Having illegals in their communities increases the average crime rate for that community.
It's pretty much only the black population who benefits from an average decrease in violent crime with more illegals in their community.
Late reply, but none the less, It doesn't work that way (over simplification). Our population is not a homogeneous distribution of whites/minorities/illegals.
50% of murders are committed by ~3-4% of the population. Mostly black on black crime. So that small minority group distorts the average by a huge amount.
The fact is whites commit less violent crime (on average) than illegals (on average). Having illegals in their communities increases the average crime rate for that community.
It's pretty much only the black population who benefits from an average decrease in violent crime with more illegals in their community.
Sorry the Blacks are a regular component of the citizenry. They are legal. And if in fact you moved out all the illegals the likely fill for the low income jobs will have a high low income Black percentage. So in fact your view would suggest it will be worse as the illegals get replaced.
I would also note that you are apparently smart enough not to argue the math which is straight forward...
And the illegal population would commit no crimes if you simply declared the criminals to be a separate set in the illegal community. But practically you take all illegals versus all legals. And you lose if you take out the illegals from the population. Simple as that.
Sorry the Blacks are a regular component of the citizenry. They are legal. And if in fact you moved out all the illegals the likely fill for the low income jobs will have a high low income Black percentage. So in fact your view would suggest it will be worse as the illegals get replaced.
I would also note that you are apparently smart enough not to argue the math which is straight forward...
And the illegal population would commit no crimes if you simply declared the criminals to be a separate set in the illegal community. But practically you take all illegals versus all legals. And you lose if you take out the illegals from the population. Simple as that.
Here's simple math for you. If you have ZERO illegals in the U.S. then ZERO crime would be committed by them. Example: No Illegal= Steinle alive.
Jessica White, a young mother of 3 from the Bronx was killed by stray bullets in a playground last year, Karina Vetrano a young woman from Queens was strangled while jogging around the same time. Now which one do you think got more attention, people never knew who the former was but you can guess the publicity Karina Vetrano received and why. Both were horrible tragedies but treated entirely differently.
I also recall the CA 3 strikes law that was created over the .death of one girl, the focus is never on minorities. Her death was a horrible tragedy, I don't blame her family for being upset and I would feel the same way but it was an accident.
You need to stop changing the subject.
It is getting sooooooo old.
When someone based on the available evidence presented should have been found guilty but in fact they were acquitted, that is called misjudge. FOCUS, dude, FOCUS. When you stop comparing Kate to anybody else and just focus on her, others (like me) will respect you more. Your entire first paragraph is completely irrelevant.
Sorry the Blacks are a regular component of the citizenry. They are legal. And if in fact you moved out all the illegals the likely fill for the low income jobs will have a high low income Black percentage. So in fact your view would suggest it will be worse as the illegals get replaced.
I would also note that you are apparently smart enough not to argue the math which is straight forward...
And the illegal population would commit no crimes if you simply declared the criminals to be a separate set in the illegal community. But practically you take all illegals versus all legals. And you lose if you take out the illegals from the population. Simple as that.
Yes, because in this fantasy "statistics" scenario you made up the entire US is homogeneous; every state, county, city. There are equally number of blacks, illegals, whites, poor, educated, rich, criminals everywhere. And you're saying this on the city-data message board.
Here's simple math for you. If you have ZERO illegals in the U.S. then ZERO crime would be committed by them. Example: No Illegal= Steinle alive.
See how easy that equation was?
Quote:
Originally Posted by max210
Yes, because in this fantasy "statistics" scenario you made up the entire US is homogeneous; every state, county, city. There are equally number of blacks, illegals, whites, poor, educated, rich, criminals everywhere. And you're saying this on the city-data message board.
Air tight logic.
Actually no illegals and the chance that a person would die like Steinle would increase.
The people in the US divide into two classes - legal and illegal. Simple huh?
It does except one can be a reality and the other cannot. Why you ask? Because guns are protected by the Constitution and laws of this nation, Illegals are not protected by anything but liberals...
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