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Old 01-07-2018, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Ohio
24,621 posts, read 19,177,123 times
Reputation: 21743

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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilcart View Post
Try looking at the BLS numbers.
Um, those are the BLS numbers.

I even provided the series code so people could see for themselves.

 
Old 01-07-2018, 07:19 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,873 posts, read 9,550,882 times
Reputation: 15598
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
There's no evidence to support that.

CEU0500000001 indicates there were 4,414,000 jobs in 2016 versus 4,550,000 in 2017.
There is plenty of evidence to support that. In fact, the BLS data supports it - using the full payroll numbers.

Source is here: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0..._view=net_1mth

Here are the numbers (in thousands):

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2010 23 -68 164 243 524 -137 -68 -36 -52 262 119 87 1061
2011 43 189 225 346 77 225 69 110 248 209 141 209 2091
2012 358 237 233 78 115 76 143 177 203 146 132 244 2142
2013 211 286 130 197 226 162 122 261 190 212 258 47 2302
2014 190 151 272 329 246 304 202 230 280 227 312 255 2998
2015 234 238 86 262 344 206 254 157 100 321 272 239 2713
2016 126 237 225 153 43 297 291 176 249 124 164 155 2240
2017 216 232 50 207 145 210 138 208 38 211 252 148 2055

The data source you cited - CEU0500000001 - is not-seasonally-adjusted private payrolls, a narrower set than the full payroll figures everyone else has been citing. Furthermore, if you used not-seasonally-adjusted numbers you get artifacts (particularly at the beginning and end of each year) that are not compensated for until some months later.

Last edited by James Bond 007; 01-07-2018 at 07:29 PM..
 
Old 01-07-2018, 07:25 PM
 
Location: USA
7,474 posts, read 7,037,280 times
Reputation: 12513
Better than nothing, but as others have pointed out, much of the growth happened under Obama. Trump has very little to be proud of here, and he certainly hasn't enacted any job-creation policies, either. Still, some jobs are better than no jobs.
 
Old 01-07-2018, 07:28 PM
 
Location: USA
7,474 posts, read 7,037,280 times
Reputation: 12513
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyMac18 View Post
Like all cycles (which are cyclical by their very nature), there has to be a peak at some point. We can not infinitely add jobs.

I only hope the downward swing, which is likely to happen under Trump (not necessarily because of him...but because he is working against the timelines of all recovery cycles in history), is not too severe.

I don't WANT Trump to fail - and I despise him and most of what he does.
I do want Trump to fail, but to fail BECAUSE of his policies and decisions, not because of some outside force beyond his control. Now, hopefully that failure will come with a minimal amount of damage to the nation, of course - I don't want WW3 or a new Great Depression, but the lunacy of right-wing believes must be put on display and destroyed by its own failings. In short, certain voters apparently need to be reminded - again - that right-wing extremist policies do not work.
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