Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
There's no evidence to support that.
CEU0500000001 indicates there were 4,414,000 jobs in 2016 versus 4,550,000 in 2017.
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There is plenty of evidence to support that. In fact, the BLS data supports it - using the full payroll numbers.
Source is here:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0..._view=net_1mth
Here are the numbers (in thousands):
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2010 23 -68 164 243 524 -137 -68 -36 -52 262 119 87
1061
2011 43 189 225 346 77 225 69 110 248 209 141 209
2091
2012 358 237 233 78 115 76 143 177 203 146 132 244
2142
2013 211 286 130 197 226 162 122 261 190 212 258 47
2302
2014 190 151 272 329 246 304 202 230 280 227 312 255
2998
2015 234 238 86 262 344 206 254 157 100 321 272 239
2713
2016 126 237 225 153 43 297 291 176 249 124 164 155
2240
2017 216 232 50 207 145 210 138 208 38 211 252 148
2055
The data source you cited - CEU0500000001 - is not-seasonally-adjusted
private payrolls, a narrower set than the full payroll figures everyone else has been citing. Furthermore, if you used not-seasonally-adjusted numbers you get artifacts (particularly at the beginning and end of each year) that are not compensated for until some months later.